The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
June 2003 Archives
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Interesting upgrade for Intel today. Intel had one of the worst looking charts of the bunch I looked at over the weekend. OBV is very weak, and the price pattern is nothing to write home about. If you buy the analyst's story this may be a good risk/reward situation though. The 50 day moving average is nearby, so that would be a good loss-cut point. We'll see if the fundamental guys can make the chart look better.
We had a pretty volatile day on Friday as the market reversed its rally attempt. Regardless of the reason for the selling, the charts are telling me that the tide has turned, and that sellers are in control of the market... for now. (Notice how the 3:00 rally has largely been missing this week.) The middle Bollinger Band held as resistance for the indices, and I think the next move will be a visit to the lower band. I don't know when we'll get there, but I think we will. This week may be even choppier than last week b/c of the holiday. I expect very low volume this week (probably a good week to take off).
Many of the homebuilder stocks are looking toppy to me. Could this finally be the end of their long boom? Looks like it to me. In addition to the toppy price patterns, On Balance Volume looks ominous on many of these stocks. Check out BZH, SPF, RYL (I might have to short this one... looks juicy), PHM, and MDC.
Here's the talk about why we're selling off now. From Briefing.com:
13:53 ET Floor Talk Speaking to an analyst who believes recent spike in American Association of Individual Investors survey is a reason for caution. This individual notes that the last two times bullishness reached similar levels was one week before the all time high on the Dow and two trading days before the high that preceded the 1987 downturn.
Remember, sell when you can, not when you have to! :-)
We had a pretty strong day, as the market bounced back from oversold levels. The NASDAQ returned to its old outperforming ways by nearly doubling the S&P 500's 1% gain. So now it's the NASDAQ that looks healthier, and the S&P that is showing chinks in its armor. The NASDAQ has formed a pattern similar to a morning star, but spanning 4 days instead of 3. ( IMO the psychology of the patterns is the same.) But while the NASDAQ bounced off its up-trendline, the S&P has only bounced back up to its trendline. We'll see if that line now becomes resistance. The middle Bollinger Band could also be resistance for the indices. Another thing to note is that volume continues to decrease. (summer doldrums???) The bulls would like to see an increase in volume on an up day like today. Here are the charts:
Continue reading Mixed signals.
Another nutty Fed decision day. You can see why I avoid these days like the plague. But I'm sure daytraders love this kind of action. After all the ups and downs today, the market basically ended flat. The S&P and NASDAQ are sitting right on those June 9th lows. I doubt that there's enough selling pressure left to take those levels out without some kind of impetus. But I'm not convinced that a bounce from here would be the start of a new up leg. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
This is what I like to see from a company - the Fed lowered rates an hour ago, and I just got this e-mail from E*Trade:
We wanted to be the first to let you know that the Fed just cut the Fed Funds rate by ¼%.In fact the Fed Funds Rate is now at a new 40-year low. While the cut in the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates, mortgage rates continue to remain at 40-year lows also. Michael, nothing lasts forever, and these 40-year low mortgage rates will inevitably rise again. Which means you have a once in a lifetime opportunity, and probably last chance, to refinance or get a new mortgage loan before rates rise.
I really don't have much to say about the market today. I think all the movement before tomorrow's 2:15 Fed announcement is nothing but noise. The reaction to that decision is what I'm interested in. Things should get real hectic, and choppy until about 3:00, then we should be able to tell how the market likes what the Fed had to say. The NASDAQ got to within one point of that June 9th low (1,597), and it got very close to that trendline I pointed out yesterday. So there's a confluence of support points right in this area. Seems like a good set up for a bounce, but the Fed will trump all the technicals.
No, not Chairman Elmer Greenspan, Chairman MaoXian. He's posted a chart of the S&P 500 Index with the Federal Funds Target Rate Overlaid. There's a hell of a divergence in that chart right now. I wish I knew what to make of it though...
(And while you're there, check out the tiny car on Monday's post. What is that, a mini-Mini Cooper?)
updating to add: That little car is a smart, a product of DaimlerChrysler.
The market continues to thrash around. We've just completed the sixth day of bouncing around in the same tight range. This may be fun for some good day traders, but it's boring me to tears. I still think the resolution of this trading range will be downward. The May highs seem like a logical place for the market to attempt a bounce. Maybe now that all the quarter-end mark-up games are over we'll see what the market really wants to do.
Recent Links 