July 2003 Archives

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've been talking about the bulls climbing that very wall since April. And I'm still skeptical. Imagine that huh? :-)

Dave Pollard takes on the five enemies of innovation which are running rampant through corporate America. He also provides a prescription for overcoming those enemies.

After yesterday's super tight range, I started thinking that we were experiencing the calm before the storm. That is to say that low volatility gives way to high volatility. Here's an article that talks about that very concept by examining the current action in the VIX -- A Big Move Is Near -- Here's Why, Part 2

It sure looked like today was the day for the trading range to break. The economic reports released this morning had the indices flying high by mid-day. But sellers stepped in late in the day and found little resistance. The Dow actually got above its June high today but it closed 100 points below that level. The NASDAQ failed at the island top, while the S&P 500 failed at 1,000 again. Appropriately the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made doji today. (doji = indecision/confusion!) So after all the partying by the bulls today, nothing has changed. If anything, I'd say that the bulls actually lost the battle today because the sellers were able to push the market back down to its lows.

Well this morning's economic reports have the futures flying in the pre-market session once again. Were looking to gap up near the upper end of the trading ranges on the indices. Could this finally be the move that breaks us out of the range? I don't know, but I do know that Rule #1 is staring me in the face. :-)

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's been cursing at the screen every time one of these #@&*ing Iraq rumors (or actual news for that matter) surfaces:

(from Briefing.com) 14:53 ET Floor Talk : In speaking with institutional desks today, traders expressing frustration that macro events such as Saddam rumors are influencing intraday action as much, if not more, than fundamentals. The feedback on the Confidence numbers today was generally negative. With many market followers seemingly looking past this data, traders now focusing on the next piece of incremental data in the form of Thursday's Employment numbers. The short covering witnessed intraday contributed to the upside reversal in the Indices, but in talking with market makers during the latter half of the day hearing that while pockets of strength are being seen in the market, there also seems to be interest in using the intraday pop to buy puts in the QQQs.

MaoXian gives an excellent illustration of how the market hunts for stop loss orders. And I love the quote he references -- "Trading is the toughest way to make an easy buck." Truer words have never been said. :-)

Let's see the bulls try to spin this positively -- 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 76.6 vs. 85.0 consensus -- My first guess is that the weak job market is weighing on consumers. So of course the bulls will come back with "that's a lagging indicator"...

Update: Here's more detail (from Briefing.com):

10:15 ET Economic Review - Consumer Confidence : Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June; lowest reading in four months. Expectations component fell to 86.4 from 96.4; current conditions component fell to 61.9 from 64.2. Rise in unemployment to a nine-year high last month contributed to this surprising read. Bonds enjoying a much-needed bounce, however; ten-year Treasury note presently up more than half a point on the day to yield 4.21%.

This is interesting -- Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks:

The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed today by critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the plan called it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the program fell under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President Ronald Reagan's national security adviser.

I've often called my friend Duru a perma-bear because, well... he has been just that. And just when I thought he'd become a full-fledged bull, he writes this latest missive and proves me wrong. It seems that we're always diametrically opposed on our long-term view of the market. I'm a bull (believe it or not) as long as we're above the 200 day moving averages on the indices. But the good Dr. Duru is looking for another 'fall in the Fall (Autumn)', as he's called for the last couple of years. Yet while I've been calling all kinds of tops during this rally, he's been rightly buying.

Anyway, the article is worth a read if for no other reason than to see him say 'economic mumbo jumbo'. Yes, his voyage to the dark side (technical analysis) is almost complete.

The Capital Spectator has an article about the wall of worry that the market's been climbing. I know I've tacked a few bricks on to that wall even though I've bee