I was starting to feel a little silly for getting cautious last week when I pointed out the potential double top on the indices. The day after I made that observation the market pushed above the resistance of that potential double top. Well, after yesterday's gap down it's looking like that push higher may have been a head fake. We're now just below that has-been double top but still in overbought territory. The uptrend is still intact and must be respected but I still think there will be a better point (lower) to buy in the near future. There's a lot of talk about the dollar's weakness being the cause of yesterday's drop. I've already said how I feel about that, and I really don't care what the reasons were. All I know is we've run a long way (almost straight up) since early August and there are a lot of traders sitting on big profits. They'll book those profits sooner or later and I'd rather look to jump back in on the long side after a bit of a dip.
Let me be very clear with what I'm saying. I'm pretty short-term focused -- about 5 days. Longer term traders could and should probably just ride these little dips out until they see a (more major) trend change. But for me, I'm trying to game these little cycles and turn over my inventory (my money) so I can keep finding new opportunities. So I'm not calling a major top, just looking for the point where it makes sense for me to jump back in.




















Yeah I try to catch the 2-3 intermediate moves a year the market seems to churn out. Sitting in David Tice's bear fund since summer which seems to have a diversified approach. He must have gold in the mix. Check out the thoughts from yesterday's market summary from www.financialsense.com if you want their thoughts on the dollar, metals, etc. PRETTY GLOOOOOMY.
I would actually prefer to read something on the other side of the house. I want to see some argument(s) ventured forth abaout how the dollar, metals, etc... either augur good tidings or don't matter. The more gloom and doom I read, the higher I know this market can still go!