Briefing.com’s Boasting
Briefing.com posted the following late in the day on Wednesday:
15:40 In Play Year-End Wrap-Up
It has been a wild year for the major averages, but careful readers of In Play more than likely have reason to celebrate as the year comes to a close. For example, we flagged the sustained rise in mining stocks beginning with our CDE profile on July 23 (up 258% since then), which was followed by numerous other profiles in the group; we pointed out the rise in little-known groups such as foreign telecoms, beginning with our March 3 summary of Russian cellular stocks (MBT +84%, VIP +90%, GLDN +98% since then) and followed by our NIHD write-up on May 22 (+112%); and over the course of the year we highlighted numerous other sectors, such as the back-from-the-dead Internet, VoIP, and Mad Cow groups. Perhaps our most successful new feature was our series of Micro-Cap, Small-Cap, Volume, and New High Profiles, which flagged many of this year’s top performing stocks before their big moves; examples include MTLG on Jan 21 (+776% since then), FLML on March 21 (+392%), ALVR on April 17 (+359%), and MOBE on May 23 (+340%)… out of the more than 100 stocks we profiled from Jan 1 to June 30, the avg gain is 57%, with over 40 stocks sporting triple-digit gains (we’ve profiled many more since then). Even after November’s rollout of the revamped site, we’re still constantly trying to improve the product and we welcome readers’ feedback. Here’s hoping our readers enjoy a similarly successful 2004 — whether trading long, short, or a bit of both!
This led to a discussion between myself and my friend Duru. This is Duru’s letter to Briefing.com which sums up our reaction to this post perfectly:
Dear Briefing,
Over the past year or more, I have come to really appreciate your “In Play” service (I typically view it through ETrade). However, some of your
end-of-year commentary struck me as a bit odd. In that summary, you claimed to have made your subscribers/readers a ton of money from picks that doubled, tripled, etc… I find this claim odd because I have always thought of you as a price/volume/news alert service and not a trade recommending service. Indeed, I cannot think of a single time when one of your alerts came with a trading recommendation - e.g. go long, go short, and hold position for the short, medium, or long-term. Without such recommendations, I cannot understand your claims of making readers money. I cannot even make sense of the “return” you claim to have generated with your picks. For example, are you suggesting that all price/volume/momentum break-outs be bought and held to the end of the year? How about some shorts? Or do you only recommend going long?Your alert on FALC today is an excellent example. I find the alert extremely informative, but nowhere in it did I see a trading recommendation. Yet, if FALC manages to survive as a big mover to the end of the year, you will lump it in with the rest of your successful “calls” of 2004.
Finally, you did not list the losing picks of the year. Without a more balanced picture, it is hard for me to give much credibility to any claim to the “accuracy” of your picks.
Again, I want to emphasize that I find your service extremely valuable, but some clarification on these claims of implicit returns would help a lot of us understand better what kind of service you believe you are providing to us.
Thank you.
I’ll add that Briefing’s In Play service is invaluable to me. I’ve used it since before I started trading full time, and will continue to do so. But they had to be called out on that boasting.



















This post has 9 comments
January 2nd, 2004
Shouldn’t briefing.com also recognize it’s own role in those stocks going ballistic?
Long as I’m here, might as well point out my latest reading of the VIX tea leaves. The vix is supposed to measure the relative cost of put options on the S&P 500 … right now the vix is at a relatively high point that almost always coincides with a downturn that is just about to bounce back upward. Problem is the S&P 500 has been rallying for weeks while the Vix has been rising as well.
I guess it could be that people are so optimistic that they’ve stopped issuing new puts, so the existing ones are becoming more expensive (simple supply/demand).
Or it could be the last few hundred points in the Dow have been the usual end-of-year window dressing.
Anyway, strange stuff is afoot.
January 2nd, 2004
Indeed, briefing.com has to have some effect on some of these stock moves. Especially where they seek to “expose” stocks with heavy short positions in the middle of squeezes. You can imagine how the traders must pile on after that!
The VIX is strange stuff and would imply that a near-term *bottom* is afoot. However, I am not surprised by this in that from what I hear/read shorts are piling on to the QQQs. If true, the market as a whole is still not at the complacency stage.
January 2nd, 2004
…I meant that “I am not surprised that strange things are happening…”
January 2nd, 2004
Yeah, as Duru and I note daily, Briefing is notorious for highlighting and feeding potential short squuezes.
As for the Vix, I’ve given up trying to read it. Didn’t they just change what it’s based on the other day?
January 2nd, 2004
Mike: as I understand it, vix used to cover the S&P 100; now it covers s&p 500.
I don’t think anybody w/any sense is basing their trades on vix readings … but in this case the vix is way, way up from its most recent bottom, and moves of this magnitude have in the past coincided w/bottoms, not tops. Traders are always looking for divergences for signs of impending turns …. I don’t know if this is *that* kind of divergence, but it sure is an oddity.
January 4th, 2004
Barron’s this weekend posted some options numbers which can help explain this sudden rise in volatility. Institutions have been paying up for puts recently. This is indeed an oddity at a time people are supposed to be anticipated the “January effect,” not a sudden correction…
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At year-end, the number of outstanding puts to each call in the Nasdaq 100 Tracking Stock, or QQQ, whose options are popular with both individuals and institutions: 1.50.
Percentage of time over the past year when that ratio had been higher: 63.9%.
Ratio of outstanding puts to calls in the Nasdaq 100 Index, or NDX, whose options are popular with institutions: 2.72.
Percentage of time over past year when that ratio had been higher: 9.3%.
Ratio of outstanding puts to calls on the S&P 500: 1.95.
Percentage of time over past year when that ratio had been higher: 1.3%.
January 5th, 2004
The old VIX is VXO.X (^VXO on Yahoo/Reuters). I watch the old one because… you can’t teach an old dog new VIX.
January 5th, 2004
bad pun!
January 5th, 2004
Assuming institutions are pushing this market to the stratosphere, looks like they are using these heavy put positions as launch pads to gun stocks higher from comfortable perches. I suspect that even if we get a pullback soon, the time around options expiration could be explosive to the upside… (Actually, a pullback would be just what is needed to provide the right fuel to gun to higher highs???).