March 2004 Archives

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.

Due to recent events, I probably won't be posting for a few days. I will just say that from a quick look at the NASDAQ chart, it's had an impressive move in price on unimpressive volume. It's heading for the top of that downtrend channel (about 2015 today and heading down fast). My guess is that, barring any extraneous geopolitical news, the market hangs around near the top of the channel until we start to get the flood of earnings in a couple of weeks.

I'll be back when I can focus on the market again.

I've added 5 new (they're new to me) blogs to my list of stock market/trading blogs this month. Check them out.

The SOX and QQQ have been thrashing across their 200-day moving averages the last three days, and it feels like they've done enough testing. The NASDAQ never quite made it low enough to touch its 200 DMA, and I'll take that as a good sign that a bounce is due. Investor types (long term money) should be putting money to work right in this area, and they've been waiting a long time. The last time the NASDAQ touched its 200 DMA was April 2003. That's also the last time my weekly stochastic on the NASDAQ was in oversold territory. Its finally back there again. However, I'm still seeing very little that I was to buy in my trading account. (I may put some IRA money to work though.) There are a few biotech, retail and wireless/cellular plays I have my eye on as longs right here, but I still think that the easier money will be made finding shorts after the next bounce.

Linda Raschke has posted her interview from the February 2004 issue of Active Trader magazine on her site. She reveals some great tips and insights into what it takes to make it as a trader. Check it out.

(Link via MaoXian )

We're set to gap down on geopolitical concerns in Taiwan and the Middle East. Taiwan's market got slammed to limit down (7%) within minutes of opening due to the controversy around their recent elections and the allegedly staged assassination attempt. I have to admit that this combined with what happened in Spain is bringing up bad memories for me of our last presidential election. That whole recount period just sucked the life out of the market. I hope we don't end up going through that again.

Anyway, this gap down has me rethinking my plans to jump on those shorts on my list. It's very likely that most of them will trigger immediately at the open. In my experience it's usually a bad idea to chase such gaps, especially not when the market's been moving in the direction of the gap for an extended period of time. The nearby Nasdaq 200-day moving average may also bring out buyers. So as I usually do on gaps, I'll be waiting until 10:00 or 10:30 to make any moves. I think it's very likely that this gap may flush out the last of those sellers I talked about in the last post.

That expiration week was fun, wasn't it? No that we're done with that madness, I think the market is set to dip a bit lower. The SOX and NASDAQ 100 are very close to their 200-day moving averages, and I think it's a safe bet that they will test them early this week. I wouldn't be surprised if the Naz itself may actually test its 200 DMA too. I'm back to thinking that the bulls still need to be flushed out in order to get rid of the last sellers. I watched Gary B. Smith on 'Bulls & Bears' this weekend and he probably summed up what many traders are feeling right now. He said that he was ready to sell everything Friday because he just couldn't stand being long through another 100 point down day on the Dow. But he didn't sell for fear that as soon as he did the market would rally. Those wavering types need to be flushed out. Let's see if it happens.

I'm not finding much that I want to trade at this juncture. I have a few more shorts than longs on my list for tomorrow, and the shorts look much more attractive than the longs do. I don't know if it's wise to be initiating shorts now, but if they trigger, I'm taking 'em... that's what stops are for.

The NASDAQ finally had an up day on higher volume yesterday, but the Dow and S&P both rose on lower volume. We may have gotten the last bit of selling in the minutes after the Fed (non) decision, as the Naz sold off and then snapped back. Yesterday's action created a lot of hammer and harami patterns. I'm also seeing a lot of stocks that had NR5 and NR7. The problem I have with the vast majority of these stocks is that they are now in clear (intermediate term) downtrends. I'd much rather let them lift and then look to get short as they run out of steam. I do have a few long candidates which are still in uptrends, but none that I'm really compelled to jump on given that expiration is around the corner.

Here we go gapping up again. -sigh- I certainly don't trust this gap since this is a Fed interest rate decision day and it's options expiration this week. Whether the pop sticks or not, I'll be sitting on my hands until after the Fed decision. The market continues to act poorly -- selling off in higher volume and rising on lower volume. I doubt that we'll get a bottom that sticks until the buyers give up in the morning. I'm still waiting on my big hammer day. I should probably take the rest of the week off due to the likely expiration pinning, but I'll hang around looking for a few daytrades.

Martin Goldberg has written up an excellent look at technicals of the market right now: The Stock Market Broke on Wednesday Do your self a huge favor and go read it! (hat tip to Kirk and Duru)

There seems to be no end to the selling, which means that we're probably due for a bounce very soon. The VIX is flying high this week as the angst intensifies. We had huge volume today, so my guess is that we've probably reached a selling climax. I didn't trust the attempted bounce today because it started too early in the day. I like the kind of days where the morning and early afternoon are just miserable. Those days tend to make the weak hand capitulate, then they rally into the close. That may happen tomorrow if only because conventional wisdom would say that nobody will be buying ahead of the weekend, especially not with the increased terrorist activity. But you won't catch me trying to be a hero and buying tomorrow -- except maybe to cover a couple of my shorts. In fact, given the way the indices are slicing through their lower Bollinger Bands (%b on the S&P 500 is -0.30), I wouldn't expect more than a very weak bounce in the short term.