Even Uglier Than it Feels

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It's been a couple of weeks since I've gone through all of my scans in TC2000. I just finished doing that and I was pretty shocked at the destruction in individual stocks and some of the indices. The first scan I look at is my %b scan. (%b tells where a stock is in relation to it's Bollinger Bands -- 0 is at the lower band, 0.5 is at the middle band/moving average, and 1 is at the upper band.) It seems like for the last year the vast majority of stocks stayed in the upper half of their bands. Well, the tide has certainly turned. Of my universe of 993 stocks which meet my criteria (based on volume, price and volatility) only 15% of them have a %b above 0.5. 44% are at 0.1 or less, and a whopping 26% are at or below zero! That's just plain old fugly. (TC2000 users will see the same ugliness on the T2108 indicator. That indicator is the % of stocks above their 40-day moving averages. T2108 sits at 19.69 right now, the lowest value since October 14, 2002.)

Based on that alone I think it's prudent to be in sell-the-rallies mode. We're probably due for a snap-back rally real soon, and I think that will be a gift to may trapped longs to sell into. (The semiconductors are already trying to bounce.) If we do get that rally I'll be looking for shorts as soon as it looks like it's stalling.

1 Comment

Glad to see you are FINALLY checking your scans! Now you see what I've been talking about! LOL...

check out my neighbors in meatspace


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This page contains a single entry by Michael published on May 9, 2004 7:58 PM.

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