In case you were wondering why the market's so weak today (and lately) here's a nice little summary (from Briefing.com):
11:23 Floor TalkMarket weakness being attributed to a continued focus on rising interest rates and surging oil prices. Market saw sizeable bounce amid chatter of an emergency OPEC meeting to raise production/lower prices, but quickly resumed downtrend after OPEC denied this speculation. Also hearing mention of traders leaning on the market -- pressing the SPX futures into levels where they see sell stops. Polls showing a tight presidential raise also not helping matters, as many desks prefer a one-man race (less uncertainty) and a Republican White House (pro-business, pro-tax cuts, pro-equities).
We've got a nice Wall of Worry to climb right now.
Check out this chart of the SOX:
http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$sox
Those moving average lines are near converging; what would you make of a crossover? Time for a rally or time to start shorting the rallies?
QQQs haven't made a new high since December ... after six months it might be time to face the facts.
Of course another argument could be this is just the market pricing in an interest rate hike, and once that gets out of the way, things can get going again.
My one cause of mild optimism is that the Dow Trannies are hanging in there... both MA curves (55 & 200) are still positive.
I'm not really a fan of MA crossovers b/c they tend to give really late signals. But the SOX has given many bearish signals - the struggles with the 50 DMA beginning in January and of course last month's slip under its 200 DMA. IMO, it won't be in full bull mode again until it's back above the 50 DMA.