Watchlist for November 16, 2004
Anybody know what in the world has gotten into Provide Commerce (PRVD)? It’s up 46% over the last 3 days. I don’t know how I missed it three days ago. 
As for the rest of the market, my view is unchanged — I’m still clinging to my longs but not looking to add anything else at this juncture. There will be better points at which to add new longs. One of the things I like to watch to get a feel for the market is where stocks are relative to their Bollinger Bands. A whopping 86% of the stocks in my universe of tradeable stocks are above their middle band (the 20-day moving average with my settings) and 11% are above the upper band. That 86% figure may be the highest I’ve seen, which tells me that this is very likely not the place to be adding longs, unless you have a pretty long time frame.
BTW, my universe of stocks consists of stocks above $15, the top quartile based on 5-day average volume (right now that’s volume above 350,000), and the top 75% based on volatility. Those criteria are in a filter in TC2000. Yesterday only 936 stocks made it through that filter.
Currently holding:
Long - GME, MACR, PLMO, RSAS, SWFT, WBSN
Short - none
Looking for swing trade entries in:
Longs - PETM
Shorts - ADRX, FRX, SKE
Potential day trades:
(From Briefing.com)
Gapping Down
Down on disappointing earnings/guidance: LUCY -31%, SSFT -10%, XIDE -9.1%, MUSE -4.7% (also JP Morgan downgrade)…. Other News: XNVA -17% (MLNM decides to cease funding the XR5944/XR11576 program), CHTR -12% (issues convertible senior notes), PKS -9.3% (announces convertible senior notes offering), ABTL -6.7% (to restate multi-year results; may face Nasdaq delisting; CFO resigns), UTSI -4.3% (Wachovia downgrade), WBSN -4% (Raymond James downgrade), DAL -3.9%, INSP -3.7% (Raymond James downgrade), FNM -3.4% (delays 10-Q), PSFT -3.1% (major holder says will not tender shares in ORCL bid), TASR -2% (profit-taking from recent run-up), GOOG -1.7% (shares come off lock-up restrictions).
Gapping Up
Up on strong earnings/guidance: HD +2%, CTMI +27%, LTON +17%, OLGR +11%, PQUE +10%, IDBE +3.1%…. Other News: DOC +20% (announces initial order for microchips in Japan; parent co ADSX +15%), FLYI +20% (momentum from 54% move yesterday), LMIA +15% (momentum from 198% move yesterday on strong earnings), SYBR +7.2% (momentum from 133% move over last 3 days), PLUG +4.7% (co and Honda to unveil home energy station today), IDNX +4.7%, TSRA +4.7% (settles lawsuit with Samsung), JAKK +4.5% (signs TV Games license for World Wrestling Entertainment), BOOM +4.1% (momentum from 150% move over last 2 days), RMBS +4%…. Under $3: WOLV +19% (reports SepQ), SNUS +4.7%.
