It looks like the indices are ready for another push higher. (Based on yesterday's action, not today's weak futures.) The Dow was able to take out last week's highs, which is very impressive given all the laggard stocks in that index. I'll be keeping an eye on last week's highs on the Naz and S&P. The Naz missed 2,153 by 1.3 points yesterday, so I guess it has to touch it today.
Currently holding:
Long - ADBE, CME, FBR
Short - None
Looking for swing trade entries in:
Longs - AFFX, DRIV, DVA, JUPM, NTGR, THQI, VRSN
Shorts - PLB
Potential day trades:
(From Briefing.com)
Gapping Down
RIMM -3.1% (reports NovQ, beats by $0.03, but disappointing guidance), MERX -15% (reports NovQ: beats by $0.04, but guides below consensus; TWP and Needham downgrades; TTMI -7% down in sympathy and it was downgraded by Longbow), MANU -12% (Wachovia downgrade following NovQ report last night), SLR -7% (reports NovQ, light on revs, guides below consensus, Baird and Raymond James downgrades), OMNI -33% (senior credit facility withdrawn), ESIO -6.1% (reports NovQ), FSII -5.2% (reports NovQ), IBIS -5% (profit taking after 50% move yesterday), UNS -4.9% (regulator rejects acquisition deal), NGEN -4.2%.
Gapping Up
ZICA +21% (Nokia has licensed its eZiText predictive text input technology), RENT +17% (Mark Cuban purchases 308K shares), BLMT +12% (to be acquired by Sky Financial), INTV +9.4% (reports NovQ, beats by $0.05), AIRN +9.1% (Roth upgrade), OSUR +8.9% (CDC to purchase co's HIV-1/2 Antibody Tests), SNTS +5% (receives FDA new drug application approval for Zegerid at higher 40mg dosage), TKLC +3.8% (Baird upgrade), EYET +3.8% (announces that Macugen price will be $995 per injection), PLMO +2.7% (JP Morgan says it's time for buyers to step back in).... Under $3: ECGI +15%.
Mike,
Just curious about your FBR holding. Do you have any idea how rising interest rates could effect them? I've been staying away from the mortgage sector because I keep assuming rates are going to rise. I got burned on APX when an interest rate bet that went the wrong way wiped out 1/2 their book value over night. Kind of scared me out of the whole MBS sector.
Make that AXM not APX.
I have no clue. :-)
Maybe I just don't get the mentality of trading. If I was sitting on a significant long position in FBR I would probably want an understanding of the downward pressures on the stock, or at least were the company is vulnerable.
If I was trading this, I would probably keep one on the FBR price and another on ten year treasuries, and try to judge how the movement in treasuries would pressure my holdings, potentially beating the rest of the market.
AXM had what amounted to a "bet the company" short position on the bond market. When this went bad, it went bad quickly. My gut feeling as a long term investor was to gut it out, but I was wrong.
I wish I had a better grasp of the fundamentals so I would have known to get out when it looked like the bet was going bad. You just don't make up for a loss of 1/2 your book over night. The stock lagged the movements in the bond market.
The mentality is that all the people who know about the fundies are the ones who are making the trends inthe charts. I'm just trying to ride along with all those smart analytical types. And it just a technical trader's mentality, there are other types of traders who actually do take fundamentals into account.