Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
We did indeed stall at the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 yesterday. But the earnings released after hours, mainly Intel and Yahoo!, gave the market a quick boost higher. I don't like to focus on technicals too much during earnings season because the news flow can easily trump the technical outlook. So just for kicks, here are charts of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq with what I see as the next resistance levels drawn in.
Pulte is one of those home builders that seems to only go up. It's still showing good relative strength vs. most of the market but it's also in an intermediate-term downtrend. The stock looks like a short-to-intermediate term short right here, with a stop above the 50 DMA.
For the seventh day in a row the S&P 500 has crossed its 200-day moving average. It's now back below the 200 after another distribution day. This action reminds me of what happened with the Nasdaq a couple of weeks ago. It crossed or tagged its 200 DMA on 13 of 17 days before finally breaking down.
Here are some articles from the current Business Week about how technology is affecting Wall Street:
(Another) Mike wanted me to take a look at KKD:
On another note was curious your take on Krispy Kreme; not as a trader but over an intermediate term (6 to 18 months). I'm not that good (yet) at the TA but looking at the weekly MACD and the monthly MACD I notice 2 things; first on the Monthly; the histogram is improving steadily. Also, the weekly histogram in converging since September with the price line; which again is typically bullish. Finally, the Stochastic on the monthlies (and to a lesser extent the weeklies) have been in oversold for quite some time.
I think once the dust settles there has got to be value in the brand - so I was wondering how you'd read the charts for a longer term period.
I have to say it again -- counter-trend trades aren't my thing. Given that kind of time frame I'd look to either the 50 or 200-day moving average to tell me which direction to look to trade this. Based on those moving averages I would not be a buyer of this stock. It does look like the sellers may have exhausted themselves, so perhaps a short-term relief rally is in the cards. But there's a lot of overhead resistance to get through, especially the congestion just above $7 from earlier this month. I might be more interested if it could hold above its 50-day moving average and if that average started sloping upward.
We've had alternating up & down days for each of the last five sessions and based on the futures that will be extended to six sessions today. I guess the bulls should be happy that the market is moving higher. While I'm trying not to focus on technicals during this earnings season I can't help but be concerned about this bounce because of the poor volume action and the multiple levels of resistance that are just above. I won't be surprised to see some good looking short setups pop up over the next couple of days.
We've certainly had some violent moves over the last week or so. I can't remember when the last time I saw the Dow up over 200 points. We even got close to having the trading curbs kick in. So it was clearly a good day for the bulls but to hear all the excitement on CNBC you'd think we were back to all-time highs instead of just being back to where we were last week.
Google added an extra boost to the Nasdaq with their blowout earnings report. I enjoyed listening to Cramer rant & rave about it on CNBC. He's now bumped his GOOG price target from $250 to $318. A simple measured move from the old high to the March lows projects a target of $260 or so.
I just got an email from a friend who's looking for "Adobe's historical earnings and growth since the 1980's". I'm at a loss as to where he can find that info, aside from digging through Adobe's site. If anybody knows of a source for that kind of info please let me know.
Minutes after I posted yesterday's note about us gapping up over the S&P's 200-day moving average the CPI was released. That report took some of the strength out of the pre-market futures. So the open on the S&P was basically flat. It quickly tested the 200-DMA and fell back for the rest of the day to close at a new low for the year. Even worse, that happened on higher volume than either of the two preceding up days. The Dow also made a new low but the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 2005 low.
Despite the good day for the bears there may be a couple of signs that the sellers may be losing power. The volume was less than Friday's volume and the indices fared better with respect to their lower Bollinger Bands. That latter fact could lead to some W bottom setups with respect to the Bollingers (John Bollinger has a good discussion of those type of bottoms & tops in his book) Personally, I think it's better to have a retest of the recent lows as opposed to making a V bottom -- those always make me nervous...
Here's a look at PBG for Doc Dan. I saw some mixed signals in the short-term chart but still liked the overall price action, especially with the weakness in the broader market. But the longer-term chart really gives me pause. This stock (like many others right now!) is just going sideways. I'd have to pass unless I had some compelling fundamental reason to take a position in it.
