The Myth of a Stock Price
Looks like Gordon Gekko beat me to the punch. A comment that was left the other day sparked me to write about a pet peeve of mine — people focusing on stock price & number of shares (smoke & mirrors) instead of dollars & percentages (the true equalizer). I’m still gonna write that article but in the mean time check out what Gekko wrote on his blog: ” The Myth of a Stock Price”
Update: Tom left the following in the comments. He did a great job of explaining why people tend to focus on lower priced stocks and why they should change their thinking:
Hi Mike,
When I first started trading with a small account I used to prefer low-price stocks, but I’ve since learned my lessons. I think a few of the reasons that some people (especially new traders with small accounts) prefer low-price stocks are:
1) It makes them feel good they own a lot more shares for the same amount of money (illusion of more significant ownership of a particular stock.)
- My lessons: more shares for the same amount of investing money also means more risks if the stock doesn’t move in my desired direction. I’m not more or less important, or poorer/richer if I “own” more shares of a company. It’s the difference in share price when I buy and sell the stock that affects my bottom line.
2) They are hoping to be lucky enough to cash in on some of those stocks that double/triple/quadruple or more in a short period of time, like FORD, GEOI, ABLE, BOOM, etc. (hope and luck mentality.)
- My lessons: I can only “find” those stock in hindsight. “Hope” usually doesn’t work out in the stock market. And I’ve never been good/lucky enough to catch those big movers.
3) They tend to think that it’s easier for, say, a $10 stock to move up by $1, than a $100 one to move up by $10, even though both equal a 10% move. This false logic may be induced by:
a) Without thinking clearly in term of percentage gain, a $1 move would seem to be a lot more feasible than a $10 move (absolute dollar illusion.)
- My lesson: think in term of percentage gain rather than absolute dollar gain. A $1 move in a $5 stock (20%) is not at all more feasible than a $40 move in a $200 stock. In fact it could be harder. Look at SUNW and GOOG, LU and CME.
b) Since a few stocks they know make large moves within a short time (similar to those in 2 above), they tend to think (erroneously) that this is the norm rather than the exception (false generalization.)
- My lesson: stocks that make large moves within a short time are the exceptions rather than the norms, and at least for me, extremely hard to catch.
4) People with small trading accounts tend to like low-price stocks, since they may be inclined to think they can only afford cheap stocks instead of high-price stocks ( because “they are just too expensive”.)
- My lesson: “expensive” stocks can even get a lot more expensive, and “cheap” stocks can get a lot cheaper. In trading, I only try to achieve a potential percentage gain for my account. Hence, I’d rather own a few shares of “expensive” stocks that keep going up rather than many more shares of “cheap” stocks that keep going down.
5) Also, in general, don’t some people only want “bargains”, “discounts”, and cheaper merchandises for their money? (misconception of “value”.)
- My lesson: there’s a big difference between “cheap” stocks and “value” stocks. Since I’m not knowledgeable enough to tell the difference, I’d rather assume that - as O’Neil says - cheap stocks are cheap for a reason.
Think: why is a Hyundai a lot cheaper than a BMW?
People may argue that, they know why, but due to various reasons, such as budget constraints, they can’t afford a BMW. I have no problem with that, and no particular problem with Hyundai either, just use it as an example.However, I think in trading/investing, with the same amount of money, I probably would do better with the BMW of stocks like GOOG, CME, rather than the Hyundai of them like SUNW and LU. For ex., with a $10,000 account, I could either buy 50 shares of GOOG when it was at $200, or 2,500 shares of SUNW when it was at $4 two months ago. How would my account be doing now?
Of course, the caveat is that in the stock market, it’s often not as obvious to tell the differences between 2 stocks as those in 2 cars in real life. But that’s another issue, and something I have to learn. In sharing my own experience, I just want to point out some misconceptions about “cheap” and “expensive” stocks, and how many of them you want to “own”.



















This post has 8 comments
June 12th, 2005
Hi Mike,
When I first started trading with a small account I used to prefer low-price stocks, but I’ve since learned my lessons. I think a few of the reasons that some people (especially new traders with small accounts) prefer low-price stocks are:
1) It makes them feel good they own a lot more shares for the same amount of money (illusion of more significant ownership of a particular stock.)
- My lessons: more shares for the same amount of investing money also means more risks if the stock doesn’t move in my desired direction. I’m not more or less important, or poorer/richer if I “own” more shares of a company. It’s the difference in share price when I buy and sell the stock that affects my bottom line.
2) They are hoping to be lucky enough to cash in on some of those stocks that double/triple/quadruple or more in a short period of time, like FORD, GEOI, ABLE, BOOM, etc. (hope and luck mentality.)
- My lessons: I can only “find” those stock in hindsight. “Hope” usually doesn’t work out in the stock market. And I’ve never been good/lucky enough to catch those big movers.
3) They tend to think that it’s easier for, say, a $10 stock to move up by $1, than a $100 one to move up by $10, even though both equal a 10% move. This false logic may be induced by:
a) Without thinking clearly in term of percentage gain, a $1 move would seem to be a lot more feasible than a $10 move (absolute dollar illusion.)
- My lesson: think in term of percentage gain rather than absolute dollar gain. A $1 move in a $5 stock (20%) is not at all more feasible than a $40 move in a $200 stock. In fact it could be harder. Look at SUNW and GOOG, LU and CME.
b) Since a few stocks they know make large moves within a short time (similar to those in 2 above), they tend to think (erroneously) that this is the norm rather than the exception (false generalization.)
- My lesson: stocks that make large moves within a short time are the exceptions rather than the norms, and at least for me, extremely hard to catch.
4) People with small trading accounts tend to like low-price stocks, since they may be inclined to think they can only afford cheap stocks instead of high-price stocks ( because “they are just too expensive”.)
- My lesson: “expensive” stocks can even get a lot more expensive, and “cheap” stocks can get a lot cheaper. In trading, I only try to achieve a potential percentage gain for my account. Hence, I’d rather own a few shares of “expensive” stocks that keep going up rather than many more shares of “cheap” stocks that keep going down.
5) Also, in general, don’t some people only want “bargains”, “discounts”, and cheaper merchandises for their money? (misconception of “value”.)
- My lesson: there’s a big difference between “cheap” stocks and “value” stocks. Since I’m not knowledgeable enough to tell the difference, I’d rather assume that - as O’Neil says - cheap stocks are cheap for a reason.
Think: why is a Hyundai a lot cheaper than a BMW?
People may argue that, they know why, but due to various reasons, such as budget constraints, they can’t afford a BMW. I have no problem with that, and no particular problem with Hyundai either, just use it as an example.
However, I think in trading/investing, with the same amount of money, I probably would do better with the BMW of stocks like GOOG, CME, rather than the Hyundai of them like SUNW and LU. For ex., with a $10,000 account, I could either buy 50 shares of GOOG when it was at $200, or 2,500 shares of SUNW when it was at $4 two months ago. How would my account be doing now?
Of course, the caveat is that in the stock market, it’s often not as obvious to tell the differences between 2 stocks as those in 2 cars in real life. But that’s another issue, and something I have to learn. In sharing my own experience, I just want to point out some misconceptions about “cheap” and “expensive” stocks, and how many of them you want to “own”.
I really enjoy your blog, it’s quite objective and filled with good information.
Thanks,
Tom
June 12th, 2005
You nailed it Tom! Thanks for taking the time to write that comment.
I think another trap that people fall into is looking back at a stock like Microsoft. When they see the stock price 10 or 20 years ago they say to them selves: “MSFT was trading for 35 cents and now it’s at $25, so I need to find some stocks under a dollar that can have the same kind of run.” Of course they may not realize that the current MSFT chart is adjusted for 9 splits and that in reality MSFT was a high-priced stock at the time that it appears that it was 35 cents.
June 12th, 2005
hey mike,
the story is a good one and I too was a small stock guy once. and still am to a point. and here is why, I write options and seeminly a $20 stock carries more priemium than a $100 stock persentage wise. also on lower priced stocks (really medium priced stocks) you can trade more share and get a break on the option commisions which are still high compare to stocks. but in ny case keep up the good work.
June 12th, 2005
I am trading with a small trading account and often screening for stocks in $5 - $12. My personal perception is that it is easy to find stocks with high beta in that range. But it might be just that … perception
June 12th, 2005
Krage,
That may very well be true, but why not just scan for beta?
June 12th, 2005
-3) They tend to think that it’s easier for, say, a $10 stock to move up by $1, than a $100 one to move up by $10, even though both equal a 10% move. This false logic may be induced by:
a) Without thinking clearly in term of percentage gain, a $1 move would seem to be a lot more feasible than a $10 move (absolute dollar illusion.)-
I don’t think this “false logic” is quite so false. A $1 move in a $10 stock IS more feasible than a $10 move in a $100 stock. The statistics seem to support this. Taking several thousand stocks over 1000 trading days, I categorized them by price 1) less than $5, 2)5-10, 3)10-20, 4)20-40, 5)40-80 and 6)80 up. Every 20th day any 10%+ price change from 20 days previous was noted for all stocks by category. The results by category for 10%+ gains and 10%+ losses respectively:
1 29, 24
2 21, 17
3 15, 11
4 12, 10
5 8, 8
6 5, 6
It seems lower dollar stocks gain and lose larger percentages than higher dollar stocks. Risk also goes up. Sub $5 stocks are 6 times more likely to catch a 10%+ gain than a $80+ stock while they are 4 times more likely to catch a 10%+ loss.
June 12th, 2005
Hi Krage, nvdog:
I wrote those comments with the average traders/investors in mind, and wasn’t trying to generalize that people should never invest in low-price stocks, since they would not be able to make money trading them, which is not true at all. Moreover, I’m just a joe trader and don’t have sufficient knowledge/skills to make any trading advices. What I wanted to bring forth through my own experience (which could be vastly different from others’) were:
- In general, it’s not necessarily easier to achieve gains by trading lower-priced stocks. If it were, then probably most small retail traders would do well trading only cheap stocks. There is the “loss” part of the equation.
- Some people (especially new traders, I was one of them once) only see the huge potential gains in lower-priced stocks without realizing the equally spectacular potential losses - they can make extreme moves either way.
- Account size can very well be the determining factor for some people in choosing the stocks they want to trade. I used to reason exactly in the following line of thought when I first started trading (just an example):
“I have only $5,000 to trade, so if I buy GOOG now, I’ll have less than 20 shares. If I buy this “promising” $5 stock, I can have 1,000 share. Even if GOOG were to go up by $50 (~18%) some time from today, I’d “only” make less than $1,000. $50 move seemed tough after it has already made such a huge move though.
On the other hand, if this cheap stock were to go up by only $1 (20%!) during that same time, I’d make at least $1,000, and hopefully a lot more if it doubles or triples, or…”
Until now, I still can’t be quite sure what made me think that way, was it just wishful thinking, was I excited thinking about the potential huge move that the $5 stock could offer, or was it because I wasn’t thinking clearly in terms of percentage gain?: a $1 move seemed a lot more probable than a $50 move (if I’d thought in terms of percentage - a 20% vs. a 18% - I might not have thought that way.)
But the real problem here was that somehow I thought I “knew” (or “felt”, or “was convinced”, or whatever you call it) where this small stock would go, moreover, I truly “believed” that this $5 stock could make a 20% move more easily than GOOG could make a 18% move “at this point”.
The fact that the $5 stock could make a 20% (or much larger) move OPPOSITELY to my desired direction just as easily, had never actually occurred in my mind, or if it did, only fleetingly.
I don’t care if someone is very good at fundamental or technical analysis, the truth is no one (including the so-called gurus/experts) can know with %100 certainty where either stock will end up, short-term or long-term. Based on your “edge” if you’ve learned/developed one, you can only, at best, make an educated guess at the future price of a stock, and trade using protective stop losses accordingly.
So, it may eventually turn out that GOOG would go down, and this small stock would quadruple from here, but that’s not the point. The point is nobody can possibly know with absolute certainty what’s going to happen with the prices of these 2 stocks in the future. I should have made my trading decision based on the fundamentals or charts of the stocks, and not because my account is small, or because I can own a larger number of shares.
Of course, there are the extreme cases: I have only $1,000, should I buy 3 shares of GOOG, or 100 shares of a $10 stock, 200 of a $5 stock, or should I trade at all?
- People should know their risk comfort level, and adjust their trading styles accordingly.
Please do not feel offended thinking that I’m against trading lower-priced stocks. I do trade them. I just don’t let the share price/number of shares dictate my trading decision. I trade based on certain fundamental and technical merits of a particular stock. If you have some “edge”, and willing to take higher risks, and are a very active trader then by all means do whatever you feel comfortable with. If you can successfully scan for, and do trade the likes of TASR, TZOO, ANTP, NGPS, DCAI, etc. of last year, and FORD, BOOM, GEOI, ABLE… of this year, then all the best to you.
Mike pointed out one common trap in his previous post. One of the other trap when one looks back at these big movers in hindsight, is the “coulda, shoulda, woulda” mentality, such as: “if only I could get in this stock when it was around 4… now it’s over 20″.
I was able to catch partial moves on some of those stocks, but never could “ride all the way”. I know I’m not smart enough to catch tops and bottoms. Some “experts” like to think they can, but I’m not sure how successful they are with their timing.
I wonder how many people actually bought TASR or TZOO when they were trading at a few dollars, then “sit tight” and ride them to over 100 before they topped out?
I’ve also been burnt by some of these stocks. I’ve made every mistake I’ve read about since starting to trade, even though I thought I’d learned well! Emotion is such a tough beast to control.
So what I should have mentioned more clearly is that: lower-priced stocks can be a double-edged sword: they can offer huge potential gains IF you pick the right ones and own a large number of shares, or huge potential losses otherwise.
If you believe you have the right knowledge, skills, and talents to consistently pick the lower-priced stocks that go on and become big winners, then congratulations. Just keep in mind that, mathematically as well as psychologically, it’s much tougher to rebuild your account after a large loss than a small loss, especially with smaller accounts.
June 14th, 2005
I think the real discussion is about capitalization of the company rather than stock price. Small caps usualy cost less and have higher beta.