The Nasdaq has spent most of the last three days between 2,114 and 2,128. This intraday chart (60 minute candles) shows the range that I've been watching for the last two days.
This type of action is basically hell for me. I guess (good) scalpers don't mind this choppiness but I think it invites nothing but account churning (at best) for most traders. I shut things down shortly after 11 AM the last two days when I saw that the range wasn't going to be broken. I usually like to be in positions by 11 and I generally don't trust moves that happen during lunch time. So I figure it's better to just walk away instead of sitting here and trying to force things.
Hopefully this range will break tomorrow...
Update: I just noticed that Ugly Chart has a similar opinion, albeit on a longer-term chart. I can work with a 100 point range on the Nasdaq though. :-)
Mike,
Thank you again for time you put into this site everyday, I really enjoy it and I am learning a lot.
I have a chart request for SIRI..can you break it down for me. I am currently doing mostly swing trades and this appears to be a decent oppurtunity to get it before the Stern/xmas effect.
Mike,
Thank you again for time you put into this site everyday, I really enjoy it and I am learning a lot.
I have a chart request for SIRI..can you break it down for me. I am currently doing mostly swing trades and this appears to be a decent oppurtunity to get it before the Stern/xmas effect.
With Fannie Mae looking like another Enron , I think we break to the downside tomorrow.
Hi Mike,
I agree with you on the Naz, but take a look at the S&P,3 dojis in a row, sitting below its 50MA,really not a great chart...I enjoy your site from time to time, great work.
Edgar
Not to mention that the last three days were all failed opening gaps higher. This is occuring on heavier than average volume while the short term cycle is clearly up (I'm looking at your stochastics). This is clearly bad news for Longs. That 2100 level on Ugly's chart is a major support based on previous price highs and it is a 62% retracement from the highs. If this is broken, a major trend down is likely.
Keep up the great work on the blog!
Mike,
I check in on your site every now and then, and I like you analysis. As a strict futures trader for my hedge fund, we have two NAZ targets that are probably much more accurate then most of your models. So, I thought i'd share.
NAZ Breakdown -> 2093, NAZ Breakout -> 2135. We are not trading the NAZ, but are still actively trading the S&P ES Contract.
Take care,
Anthony
Edgar,
the 3 (almost 4) doji on the S&P show the current market action even better that the Nasdaq chart. As you know, doji represent confusion and/or a stalemate between bulls & bears. Both charts look more bearish than bullish to me.
Jack -- agreed!
Anthony -- thanks for the targets. As for my 'models'... I didn't know I had any. :-)
That short cov rally wed afternoon was a very good opp for daytraders. Thought that was the direction you were going in. Two or three upthrusts with good momentum. Granted, finding good stocks to participate was difficult, but its the kind of thing daytraders look for nonetheless.
Mike,
Sorry, I thought you're two trendlines were indicative of your breakout levels. Today and yesterday have been two stellar sessions for our accounts. I recorded 9 S&P points yesterday on the ES and 5 points today so far. Our methodology averages 1.75%/S&P point across our accounts. So, 25% in two days is a pretty damn good work week.
Since inception of this methodology we have averaged 10% weekly, and we rely only on price points. There are no other indicators such as volume, stochastics, etc. used in our models.
I'd love to share our equation with you, but I could probably send u some charts to illustrate if you are interested.
Take care,
Anthony
artlu
i would be interested to see your formulas. in getting my MBA I am coming across tons of formulas, ones I think will help me more with option trading so far, I am curious to see what you are using to calc price points.