Watchlist for October 5, 2005

| 9 Comments

There were a lot of shooting star and bearish engulfing patterns made yesterday which means a lot of ugly charts. I'm biased towards shorts right now although that could change at the drop of a hat...

Potential swing trades:

Shorts: ANF (watch out for all the same-store sales numbers coming up over the next couple of days), CYMI, IBM, NCR, STX, WEN

See one of the recent 'Chart Reading' posts for some potential swing candidates.

Potential day trades:


(From Briefing.com)

Gapping Down

HGSI -27% (disappointing clinical data), MOTV -31% (guides lower; multiple downgrades), WMGI -19% (guides lower; multiple downgrades), DPH -17% (ready to seek bankruptcy - NY Times), ADCT -16% (guides lower, Baird downgrade), MIPS -14% (guides lower; RBC downgrade), MERQE -8.5% (guides Q3 below consensus; multiple downgrades), NANO -4.7% (guides lower), HDI -3.7% (downgraded to Sell at BofA), BHP -2.7%, WEN -2.4% (Q3 comps below consensus), PLAY -1.8% (Needham downgrade), BP -1.6% (Citigroup downgrade), ADSK -1.1% (to acquire Alias; Pru downgrade).

Gapping Up

NTRI +17% (guides above consensus), WFII +14% (joins Google in bid to provide Wi-Fi services in San Francisco), OXGN +6.6% (positive clinical trial data), ELOS +6% (Merriman says checks indicate a strong Q3), BIDU +4.5% (extends yesterday's 4 pt move), TXU +4% (files for rate increase), GOAM +23% (co's i711 services now available on AOL Instant Messenger), NYER +9% (to acquire remaining 20% of its pharmacy subsidiary), SVA +6% (Pres Bush press conferecen on bird flu), EPIX +4.7% (announces European approval of Vasovist), EXTR +4.7% (BofA upgrade), IMCL +3.4% (started with an Outperform at Goldman), AAPL +1.4% (may introduce video iPod next week - Appleinsider.com)... Under $3: NVAX +13%, CGTK +9% (positive Phase 3 data), GNVC +7% (announces increase in funding).

Intraday Updates:

  • 10:00 Woah, LIFC, the chart request I did yesterday is getting slammed. It's down 9% already

  • 10:16 Looks like just about everything besides the drug sector is down today (even energy!). A/D lines are about 20/6... Nice & fugly today...

  • 10:30 The Dow's right around that critical 10,400 area

  • 10:31 The oil inventory report just hit. Let the games begin

  • 12:11 The indices are hovering just above support right now (see S&P 1200, Dow ~10,350, Nasdaq ~2110). I have a few shorts working and have already pushed my stops down to lock in gains on a three of them. I'm just gonna sit & wait now. I won't be surprised to see a bounce attempt around 2:30

  • 12:30 Well that was quick. 4 of my 5 shorts bounced enough to hit my stocks and I just decided to go ahead and close the 5th one. I had about 5R of profit an hour ago and now I'm left with a measly 1R for the day. Oh well...

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9 Comments

I would add the homebuilders to your list of possible shorts for the next few days; particularly TOL, HOV, and KBH. Short term they probably have a little more to the downside before they bounce back a bit. Longer term on the weekly charts they appear to be forming H&S tops.

I would add the homebuilders to your list of possible shorts for the next few days; particularly TOL, HOV, and KBH. Short term they probably have a little more to the downside before they bounce back a bit. Longer term on the weekly charts they appear to be forming H&S tops.

Todd,

yeah they all look vulnerable

I take it you covered your short position on BIDU. When did you do that ?

TOL is just collapsing, currently at $40.11. What an opportunity on the short side.

Is there anywhere that has a calendar for same store sales announcements?

E.T. :-) - I covered BIDU on September 20th. Too bad for me because it finally did what I was expecting by dropping back to the opening price on the IPO day. That's one stubborn stock!

Chud -- not that I know of

mike, are you going back to swing trading?

No, why do you ask?

check out my neighbors in meatspace


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Quoted

"Dramatic and emotional trading experiences tend to be negative. Pride is a great banana peel, as are hope, fear, and greed. My biggest slip-ups occurred shortly after I got emotionally involved with positions." ~ Ed Seykota
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This page contains a single entry by Michael published on October 5, 2005 9:23 AM.

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