A Look at Garmin’s (GRMN) Wild Recent Action

by Michael on March 6, 2006

Nick asked me the following about Garmin:

I got burned on the big GRMN fade last week. This week it’s marching forward. Can you offer an insight into how this kind of thing works?

I think that most of what happened was due to their post-earnings conference call. I remember watching the stock get crushed from its pre-market levels during the day. From what I recall it only stabilized after the conference call ended. Conference calls are yet another reason to be careful about trading around earnings — you never know what’s going to be said and/or how the market will react to what’s said. I’ll typically avoid entering stocks while or before their conference calls.

One can never be sure of all the reasons for selling though. It could have been as simple as some big holder wanting to lighten up. What better time to dump sell a lot of shares than when the crowd is in a buying frenzy?

Looking at the news paints the picture for what happened after the big earnings fade on the 22nd. It got upgraded by Needham on the 23rd, which likely help to turn the tide. Then it got a positive mention in Barron’s over the weekend, which caused the gap up on the 27th. After that it’s likely all momentum players and/or a short squeeze of any bears that jumped in on the 22nd. Who says the market’s efficient? :-)

It’s also interesting to note that the stock did some of the same things I talked about the other day — it pulled back after the initial earnings -induced euphoria, made a bullish reversal candle (A harami cross on the 23rd.) and then went into a Bollinger Band walk.

{ 1 comment }

Nick March 6, 2006 at 9:58 am

Thanks for the comments Mike. I appreciate it.

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