May 30, 2006 Stock Market Recap

I got a suggestion today about adding trend indicators to these daily recaps:

I'm almost surprised that you don't post a short-, medium- and long-term indicator each day with regard to the direction of the market. Seems this is what you are looking for when formulating your plays each day. It also seems that many people (including myself) struggle with this area. More specifically, as a novice, I've been honing my skills on identifying good entries when the market is going up in the short term. This is great when all the trends are pointing up. When the market turns down, I'm forced to sit on my hands and be patient. This is difficult and the temptation to jump in is hard to resist. I'm trying to learn how to identify short-selling opportunities, but I'm not always comfortable with gauging the direction of the market.

That sounds like a great idea. It's something that Worden (TeleChart) provides in their daily report as well. So I'm going to steal copy borrow the idea from them. In general, I'll define the primary, intermediate and short-term trends by using the 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages respectively. Here's today's trend table:

TrendNasdaqS&P 500Russell 2000
PrimaryLAUpUp
IntermediateDownDownDown
Short-termDown(-)Down(-)Down(-)

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
LA Indicates a Lateral trend


I guess it's no surprise that the short-term trends turned down today. It was another bloodbath today, although the selling came on light volume. I'm still looking for last week's lows to be retested. In fact, I can't imagine why anybody would put in a bid above last week's low. ;-)

Here's the Nasdaq chart, which is in full bear mode:



The S&P looks slightly better than the Naz but if it breaks the 200 DMA...


I found a lot of potential shorts tonight. As always, I want confirmation on these (trading below today's lows) before I'd pull the trigger:

It seems like every oil related stock is setting up a swing short. Many are making patterns similar to Valero Energy Corp's (VLO):


I also found a few steel stocks. Here's Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD):


And a few more that I'll be watching tomorrow - Altera Corp (ALTR), The Andersons, Inc. (NASDAQ: ANDE), Brocade Communications Systems, Inc.(BRCD) and KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC):





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Quoted

"Place your stops at a point that, if reached, will reasonably indicate that the trade is wrong, not at a point determined primarily by the maximum dollar amount you are willing to lose." ~ Bruce Kovner
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This page contains a single entry by Michael published on May 30, 2006 9:23 PM.

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