Watchlist for May 4, 2006

Posted on May 04th, 2006 in Watchlists

Duru just sent me an email about the Nasdaq’s recent struggles/relative weakness. He pointed out the shellacking that Microsoft (MSFT) has taken the last few days — it’s down 15% in four days. The guys at TickerSense made a similar observation the other day when they noted that:

Who would have ever thought that over three years into a bull market, on a day when only two S&P 500 stocks hit 52-week lows, those two stocks would have been MSFT and DELL.

Dell is down 15% since the beginning of April. I’ll add Intel (INTC) to the mix as well — it’s down 24% for 2006. As William O’Neil / IBD always says, old leaders become the new laggards. Given the weight of these stocks it’s pretty amazing that the Nasdaq isn’t much lower than it already is. Here’s a chart of MSFT, DELL and INTC vs the S&P 500:

On another note, there are some impressive earnings misses in IPSU and PAAS this morning. The related commodities stocks should be interesting today.

Potential swing trades:

See one of the recent ‘Chart Reading‘ posts for some potential swing candidates.

Potential day trades:

(From Briefing.com)

Gapping Down

Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: ERTS -11% (also downgrades from Kaufman and CIBC; down in sympathy: ATVI -4%, NVDA -2.6% which also got a downgrade from Amtech), VPHM -21%, IPSU -18% (also announces a stock offering), ITWO -17%, EMKR -10.6%, SLXP -8.9%, ANDE -7.5% (hurting other ethanol plays: PEIX -3.4%, MGPI -2.6%), CECO -6.7% (also Piper and Credit Suisse downgrades), JDSU -6.6%, TFSM -6.3%, QLGC -5.7% (also RBC downgrade), TRLG -5.6%, BUCY -4.3%, MTLK -3.5%, UL -2.9%, UN -2.5%, UNTD -2.4%, UBS -2.3%, SMDI -2.3%… Other News: CHS -7.8% (April comps), BOL -5.6% (confirms eye infection case in Europe), NEOL -3.1% (chief science officer resigns), EK -2.9% (explores strategic alternatives for health biz), ELSE -3.9%, GW -2.6%, ICO -2.5%, ADM -2.1% (Pru downgrade), SI -1.6%, RHAT -1.5%, VLO -1.5%, AET -1.4% (downgrades from JP Morgan and Goldman)… Under $3: VWPT -15% (reports Q1).

Gapping Up

Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: EXPD +12% (also announces 2-for-1 split, ups dividend), FEIC +11% (also upgrades from Needham and Merriman), MANT +10% (also Jefferies upgrade), POL +9.4%, PCLN +6.7% (up in sympathy: TZOO +1.9%), WFMI +5.6%, USU +2.9%, THE +2.9%, IMOS +2.7%, TIE +2%, CETV +1.3%… Other News: AFCO +22% (to be acquired by AMAT), CAAS +14% (creates joint venture), FNET +9.4% (Wireless Gambling Company Gets Endorsement From Nevada Regulators - AP, FNET mentioned in story), DWSN +5.1% (Mad Money mention), LSI +3.9% (Lehman upgrade), CVS +2.2% (reports Apr comps), ERS +1.9%, AVCI +1.7%, MICC +1.5% (bounces after recent weakness), COST +1.5% (reports Apr comps), PD +1.4%, PDLI +1.4% (bounces after 24% drop yesterday), AMZN +1.3% (Citigroup upgrade).