Glenn asked me to look at BOT, which he owns as a long term play. I don't know what long term means for him or where he bought it but the stock looks strong to me. Normally I'd look to the 200-day moving average to judge a long term trade (investment) but CBOT hasn't been trading long enough to have a 200-day average. The 150 and 175 day averages are both around $105 though, so the 200 shouldn't be too far from there once it appears. Given that I might get concerned if BOT broke $100 or the June lows.
How about the fact that the current price is in a rgion of high supply? I would think we either want to see a true break-out above this area OR a succesful test of key support? I am thinking the neck like of the previous H&S might be a good test, especially with it hitting around the middle Bollinger Band...
Good points... I just don't know what that means for whatever Glenn means by long term. For a shorter term trade I'd have my finger over the sell button right now.