BTU is the situation that I just hate -- above its 200-day moving average and below the 50-day average. It has just completed a rally from the 200 to the 50 and appears to be stalling out. While it's broken the May - June downtrend, it has yet to take out the early June high.
I think there are easier plays out there right now. Remember, no setup, no trade. :-) There are thousands of other stocks to choose from. Gun to head, I'd look to go long above the 50 DMA and short under the blue trendline.
I'm holding BTU because it's recent drop was due to low seasonal natural gas prices causing gas to be unusually attractive for electric power dispatch (with resulting reduction of coal burn). I also noticed that a new provider popped up on the TX Powertochoose.org site offering a 12 month lockin rate @ ~35% under other competitors. I further noticed that this provider's "electricity facts sheet" stated that the offering was based on 100% natural gas--very odd. It tells me that gas prices got so cheap in TX that the smart guys quickly bought up a years worth of it to resell at a nice profit from unregulated combined cycle generation . All of a sudden gas is up to $8+ from ~$5.90 and coal is increasingly being dispatched for electric generation. With the current heat wave it means more MWH from coal = increased coal volumes and more profits for Peabody. Bottom line coal is an alternative fuel for natural gas and it's demand is driven by gas prices.
Thanks for the site,
Dave