-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
November 2006 Archives
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
-
(tags: trading)
-
d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
-
A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
-
Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
-
This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
-
This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 29, 2006.
-
MarketBeat, led by Wall Street Journal Online writer David Gaffen, looks under the hood of Wall Street each day, finding market-moving news and analyzing interesting trends and numbers. The blog is updated several times daily with contributions from repor
-
some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.(tags: stocks)
-
The key point here is that Traders need to be brutally honest and acknowledge when luck was on their side, and not only complain about bad luck.
-
The best blogs all have a quite few things in common - regular, well written content and a large number of subscribers are base requisites for a Technorati Top 100 Blog. But what other traits do these select few blogs share?
-
Megite is the social news aggregrator for anyone interested in what's happening right now by intelligently uncovering the most relevant items from auto discovered news sites and weblogs.
-
These courses were developed by the United States government and are in the public domain. This site is dedicated to making these language courses freely available in an electronic format. It is an independent effort to foster the learning of worldwide la
-
Muzea sees steeper declines based on lack of insider buying(tags: stocks)
-
interesting back & forth between Cramer (no, not KKKramer) and CXO Advisory Group
The indices ended the day in the green but I consider today to be a stalemate. Volume was about the same as yesterday so given the narrow range today that tells me there was a lot of churn today. I see a lot of candlesticks that appear to be bullish hammers or harami but they're really not. Most of them are actually the In-Neck Lines (bearish), On-Neck Lines (bearish) and Thrusting Lines (not quite as bullish as a harami or Piercing Pattern)... We rarely get perfect candlesticks and many of these could be open to interpretation so take my read for what it's worth (not much). At this point I can't form an opinion on whether this is the beginning of a bounce or just a pause before the selling resumes. My gut tells me that we need to at least retest today's lows before we can head significantly higher. As always, we'll see...
Trend Table
No changes.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
Jim wrote:
Enjoy your site was wondering your opinion on HOG Harley Davidson…in pullback stage but for a longterm investment opport. What do you think of this stock at this point when it recovers from a pullback?
Harley looks fine to me as long as if stays within the channel its been in since the summer. If I were stalking it for a purchase I'd try to get in as close to the 20-day moving average as I could. If it drops past there $70 looks like decent support. Under 70 I'd start to get a little nervous but it's still probably OK as long as the 67.50 area holds. Any lower than that and I'd be gone.
P.S. Don't forget to check all the HOG commentary on WallStrip.
Today's WallStrip video on Toyota Motor Corp & Scion was very informative (based on an article by Bob Lefsetz). Who knew that Scion was actually reducing production to keep from diluting the brand. Many automakers would love to have that problem...
On to the markets... We're gapping down this morning and I've already initiated a gap fade on the QQQQ. I'm long at 43.46 with a stop around 43.26. Let's see if we can close this gap...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 -- Existing Home Sales
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 28, 2006.
-
Here is the neat trick, use Feedburner to turn vanilla RSS feeds into RSS feeds with enclosures.
-
a 15-point template to making the most of our trading journal
-
(via Kirk)
-
"My thesis: he is helping to perpetuate addictive, stupid, self-destructive behavior, and he has to be stopped..."
-
Realistically, if the amount you risk per trade (no more than 2% of your equity!) is not at least an order of magnitude (10x) bigger than your commissions, you need more capital.
This was another day that felt manipulated "propped-up" to me. $TICK was hitting extremely high levels (it hit 1440, 1500 and 1477 today) again today all to just keep the market at unchanged. Maybe now that the month-end (and year-end for many funds) games are over the market can go where it's truly headed. It looks to me like we've got falling three methods patterns forming on the indices:
1. 1st day is a long black day. 2. Three small body candlesticks follow the 1st day. Each trends upward and closes within the range of the 1st day. 3. The last day is a long black day and closes below the 1st day's close.
And here's a more detailed definition of the falling three methods.
Below are charts of the indices. I can see all of them, except for the S&P 500, easily completing a falling three methods tomorrow. Of course that assumes that we don't have one of those go-nowhere Fridays. The S&P has to fall more so it would be tougher for it to complete the pattern tomorrow.
Worden had some interesting comments about the market the last two days. They see this bounce on the Dow and S&P 500 as them rising to "kiss the channel goodbye":
The Nasdaq Brothers remain in Short-term downtrends within their channels. The Dow, after having violated the up-channel on the downside, has bounced up and is in the midst of a passionate kiss of the channel, from which it may be cruelly repulsed by the object of its affection. The SP-500 has climbed back up into the channel, which I must say is overdoing it a bit, as far as these goodbye kisses go, but it's not that unusual. Nevertheless, should it rise far enough to negate the Short-term downtrend, I suppose we'd have to rate that channel rupture as a false sell signal.
And here are the channels Worden's tracking - first is the Dow followed by the S&P 500:
Trend Table
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
We were set for a small gap up this morning but that move higher has already been faded. SPY is now down 1 cent and QQQQ is flat. So much for making it three days in a row fading QQQQ.
Note to self: I've *only* traded 30,800 shares this month. I need 9,200 more today to avoid CyberTrader's $250 fee. (The one thing I don't like about CyberTrader is the way they handle these fees. They should just charge me the difference between how much commission I've done this month and $250. Better yet, drop the fee all together!) Look to scalp SUNW or some other high-volume, low priced stock this afternoon.
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- Chicago PMI
- 10:00 -- Help-Wanted Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
Continue reading Watchlist for November 30, 2006.
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d@mn spammers! (via Ugly)
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A technical approach to trading - no Booyah no BS - just information
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Here are some articles written on the topic on Trading Plan.(tags: trading)
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This formed what’s known as a Thrusting Bearish candle formation. It should indicate a lack of buying conviction, which should result in further selling which should make the shorts (including me) more money. However...(tags: stocks)
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This article will attempt to shed light on the importance of support and resistance and illustrate why traders should take note when they reverse roles.(tags: technicalanalysis stocks)
What a strange day this was. There was something for everybody today if you looked hard enough. The internals were very strong today -- the NYSE A/D line was about 4 to 1 most of the day and $TICK seemed like it stayed over 1,000:
The programs were working in full force today. Makes me wonder if *somebody* is propping the market up for month-end (and quarter & year end).
Yet somehow my QQQQ gap fade paid off again. I was close to throwing in the towel before my stop got hit at 44.22 but luckily I decided to just "let it ride".
On the daily charts it may look like the market just went straight up today but there was plenty of churn under the covers. Still, the result of the day was an impressive gain for the S&P 500, which almost erased all of Monday's losses:
The Nasdaq was a tad bit weaker on a percentage basis and didn't make up as much of Monday's losses as the S&P did:
And here's the proxy for the Russell 2000:
Trend Table
I've switched the S&P's short term trend to "up" since it climbed back above its 10-day moving average.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down | Up(+) | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
The bulls are back and emboldened this morning by the revised GDP numbers. The indices are gapping up and if the gap hold were it is now or gets bigger I'll do another gap fade on QQQQ.
Note that the Beige Book comes out at 2 PM...
On Today's Calendar:
- 10:00 -- New Home Sales
- 10:30 -- Crude Inventories
- 2:00 -- Fed's Beige Book
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades: