I went to Ian S. Notley’s presentation at the Atlanta MTA meeting earlier tonight and I was very impressed. Ian is a walking encyclopedia of market and technical analysis information. At one point he paused to ask the host how much time he had left. After a back & forth with the host Ian said “well I could go on all night…” I have no doubt that he could have done just that. It’s a shame that he doesn’t have a book — at least not one that I could find.

Thanks to Teresa for convincing me to make sure to attend the meeting and for providing some info about Ian and some of his work:

In case anyone is interested in Mr. Notley’s work, I’ve uploaded two recent issues of Notley’s Notes for your reading pleasure.

October 3, 2006
October 10, 2006
November 14, 2006

Here are links to his biography and it looks like he will be at the MTA Mid-Winter Retreat in January, 2007.

I HIGHLY recommend reading through those Notley Notes. He provided us with a copy of the November 7th Notley Notes (among many other documents). One very interesting page to read is the “Intermediate Juncture Signals”, which is page 7 of the November 14th Notes. That report shows that a distribution phase began in September and that we had record levels of distribution for the week ending November 4th with 22 buys and 194 sells.

When discussing market cycles, Notley said that we are now in the phase of “unintelligent sponsorship“, which is another way of saying that the professionals have already sold and the retail guys are now in the greed phase. He also mentioned CNBC’s part in all of this by doing things like declaring a new bull market so late in the cycle. I had to laugh at that because I’ve been noting how CNBC has been running tickers intraday showing how many points the Dow is above its all-time high.

And speaking of the Dow, Notley made the important point that only 4 Dow stocks made new highs as the index broke out to new highs. One would expect that number to be much higher. Gotta love that price-weighted Dow.

Anyway, if you get a chance to hear Mr. Notley speak I suggest that you attend. I see that he’s presenting at the Third Annual MTA Mid-Winter Retreat in Miami Beach on January 19 - 20, 2007:

MTA Members and Affiliates:

The MTA Mid-Winter Retreat is shaping up to be a very special, member-centric event. Join your MTA friends and colleagues in Miami Beach in late January, and hear presentations by: Ian Notley, Jason Goepfert, Peter Eliades, John Bollinger, Phil Roth, Sam Stovall, and Tim Hayes – as well as the MTA’s new Executive Director, Tom Silveri. Our speakers will share their thoughts and also participate in a “Walk About,” led by 2006 MTA Annual Award recipient Ian Notley, to facilitate networking and the exchange of ideas.

Friday will begin with an update from President Phil Roth on the State of the MTA, and the introduction of our new Executive Director, Tom Silveri. Saturday will end with an Awards Banquet honoring recent MTA Service Award and MTA Annual Award recipients. In between, participants will enjoy presentations from leading market analysts, the Eden Roc Resort’s outstanding facilities and amenities, great food, and the warm Florida sunshine!

This event is offered to MTA Members and Affiliates for only $350 – 70% of which is food expense, so pack an appetite. The hotel rate is a negotiated group discount for corporate clients, the best deal we could find and it represents a good deal during peak season in Florida. We hope you’ll agree that this event is a great opportunity to meet and greet your professional colleagues and personal friends in a relaxing, enjoyable setting - courtesy of the Market Technicians Association and our event sponsors.

Stay tuned for more information and a final itinerary. Space is limited to the first 100 attendees. A late sign-up fee will be applied.

Sounds like a great excuse to hit Miami. :-?

P.S. Bill Cara thinks very highly of his mentor, Ian Notley:

I recall technical wizard Ian Notley, who in my mind is unquestionably the world’s leading trend and cycles analyst, and my mentor, telling me a story about 20 years ago about a stock I’ll call ABC.

[SNIP]

Nobody is better at his game. He taught me probably 80% of what I know about capital markets that I consider truly important.

Notley has taught a lot of others too, like Martin Pring, and has numerous followers world wide.

I recall several years ago, a popular analyst by the name of Joe Granville wrote about Ian in his book, (I think it was in A Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing) calling him the world’s greatest living market technician.

Granville is the developer of the On Balance Volume technical indicator, which is still a useful tool. But the man went on to become a stage performer, and lost a lot of credibility. (Ed: Ian said something simialr about Granville)

In the case of Ian Notley though, he was right.

I learned on the job from Notley the importance of sector studies, and international equity markets. It was a valuable experience that now I try to pass on, as a mentor, to others.