Ian Notley is the Man
I went to Ian S. Notley’s presentation at the Atlanta MTA meeting earlier tonight and I was very impressed. Ian is a walking encyclopedia of market and technical analysis information. At one point he paused to ask the host how much time he had left. After a back & forth with the host Ian said “well I could go on all night…” I have no doubt that he could have done just that. It’s a shame that he doesn’t have a book — at least not one that I could find.
Thanks to Teresa for convincing me to make sure to attend the meeting and for providing some info about Ian and some of his work:
In case anyone is interested in Mr. Notley’s work, I’ve uploaded two recent issues of Notley’s Notes for your reading pleasure.
October 3, 2006
October 10, 2006
November 14, 2006Here are links to his biography and it looks like he will be at the MTA Mid-Winter Retreat in January, 2007.
I HIGHLY recommend reading through those Notley Notes. He provided us with a copy of the November 7th Notley Notes (among many other documents). One very interesting page to read is the “Intermediate Juncture Signals”, which is page 7 of the November 14th Notes. That report shows that a distribution phase began in September and that we had record levels of distribution for the week ending November 4th with 22 buys and 194 sells.
When discussing market cycles, Notley said that we are now in the phase of “unintelligent sponsorship“, which is another way of saying that the professionals have already sold and the retail guys are now in the greed phase. He also mentioned CNBC’s part in all of this by doing things like declaring a new bull market so late in the cycle. I had to laugh at that because I’ve been noting how CNBC has been running tickers intraday showing how many points the Dow is above its all-time high.
And speaking of the Dow, Notley made the important point that only 4 Dow stocks made new highs as the index broke out to new highs. One would expect that number to be much higher. Gotta love that price-weighted Dow.
Anyway, if you get a chance to hear Mr. Notley speak I suggest that you attend. I see that he’s presenting at the Third Annual MTA Mid-Winter Retreat in Miami Beach on January 19 - 20, 2007:
MTA Members and Affiliates:
The MTA Mid-Winter Retreat is shaping up to be a very special, member-centric event. Join your MTA friends and colleagues in Miami Beach in late January, and hear presentations by: Ian Notley, Jason Goepfert, Peter Eliades, John Bollinger, Phil Roth, Sam Stovall, and Tim Hayes – as well as the MTA’s new Executive Director, Tom Silveri. Our speakers will share their thoughts and also participate in a “Walk About,†led by 2006 MTA Annual Award recipient Ian Notley, to facilitate networking and the exchange of ideas.
Friday will begin with an update from President Phil Roth on the State of the MTA, and the introduction of our new Executive Director, Tom Silveri. Saturday will end with an Awards Banquet honoring recent MTA Service Award and MTA Annual Award recipients. In between, participants will enjoy presentations from leading market analysts, the Eden Roc Resort’s outstanding facilities and amenities, great food, and the warm Florida sunshine!
This event is offered to MTA Members and Affiliates for only $350 – 70% of which is food expense, so pack an appetite. The hotel rate is a negotiated group discount for corporate clients, the best deal we could find and it represents a good deal during peak season in Florida. We hope you’ll agree that this event is a great opportunity to meet and greet your professional colleagues and personal friends in a relaxing, enjoyable setting - courtesy of the Market Technicians Association and our event sponsors.
Stay tuned for more information and a final itinerary. Space is limited to the first 100 attendees. A late sign-up fee will be applied.
Sounds like a great excuse to hit Miami. ![]()
P.S. Bill Cara thinks very highly of his mentor, Ian Notley:
I recall technical wizard Ian Notley, who in my mind is unquestionably the world’s leading trend and cycles analyst, and my mentor, telling me a story about 20 years ago about a stock I’ll call ABC.
[SNIP]
Nobody is better at his game. He taught me probably 80% of what I know about capital markets that I consider truly important.
Notley has taught a lot of others too, like Martin Pring, and has numerous followers world wide.
I recall several years ago, a popular analyst by the name of Joe Granville wrote about Ian in his book, (I think it was in A Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing) calling him the world’s greatest living market technician.
Granville is the developer of the On Balance Volume technical indicator, which is still a useful tool. But the man went on to become a stage performer, and lost a lot of credibility. (Ed: Ian said something simialr about Granville)
In the case of Ian Notley though, he was right.
I learned on the job from Notley the importance of sector studies, and international equity markets. It was a valuable experience that now I try to pass on, as a mentor, to others.



















This post has 18 comments
November 17th, 2006
Mike -
I just uploaded the latest issue of Notley’s Notes in case you want to link that in the blockquote box:
November 14, 2006
Glad to hear you enjoyed the presentation. Did you actually get to say hello to him in person? Was Jonathan Arter there?
By the way, Ian did publish volumes of stuff from his days at Dominion Securities. I have all of it, going back to the 1970s.
Teresa
November 17th, 2006
Thanks Teresa! Yes, I said hello to Ian for you.
November 17th, 2006
WOW- Mike those notes are awesome!
Can you pleaseeeeee post all the previous volumes if you can?!?! Thanks a lot.
November 17th, 2006
PLEASE! DON’T post all the previous volumes!

I can understand posting one of these on your site; afterall, he gave one free to attendees. But I imagine he has a website; perhaps he charges for the material; it certainly costs money to produce.
I think it’s incredibly bad form

to mirror all of these PDF files on your own site, especially when they’re still available on other sites (like all of the academic papers Teresa linked a few weeks back).
So PLEASE! Show some LINK LOVE and provide the author’s site and how to subscribe, get the papers from him, etc.

November 17th, 2006
PLEASE! DON’T post all of his papers!
It is incredibly bad form to post a bunch of work done by someone else at your own site! Now I know Mike is just following Teresa’s lead on this, but Teresa, for god’s sake, if you have ANY respect for the man, SHOW IT!
The “Notley’s Notes” are NOT a FREE SERVICE.
How would YOU, as a BLOGGER, feel if your paid, hard-copy only newsletter suddenly had dozens of issues copied for free all over the ‘net?
November 17th, 2006
Bill, you make a great point. First, even if I had all of his previous volumes I wouldn’t post them. I was just passing along what Teresa already posted. I’ll ask Teresa her thoughts on this.
As far as my own paid newsletter (assuming I had one) showing up for free, I guess I would have mixed feelings about it. If they were spread in real time I’d be very mad about it. If old ones were posted I might look at it as free advertising. But I can’t say for sure since I don’t have a paid service.
November 17th, 2006
I certainly don’t think you had any fault, Mike. I think the disrespect shown here was on someone else’s part.
Yelton Fiscal Inc.
Copps Hill Court
79 Danbury Road
Ridgefield CT 06877
Tel 203-431-9910
Fax 203-438-7684
November 17th, 2006
There is nothing riveting, compelling, insightful or original about this report. He is not correct in calling this retail money pushing this market. Accumulation days, of which there have been plenty of, are not attributed to retail investors, but big investors. Once more, leading stocks continue to move strongly higher and there have been very few techical breakdowns within their ranks. Sure, the rally is narrow, etc., but the price action of leading stocks is not characteristic of retail investor buying. For all his pages of research, a simple observation of those stocks would tell you all you need to know. Keep it simple is my view. I guess he gets paid by the indicator and page.
November 17th, 2006
Mike –
As the former CFO of The Notley Group Inc. who worked with Mr. Notley for nearly a decade, I can provide you with some insight as to how he might view posting a few issues of Notley’s Notes on an educational website such as yours.
The weekly publication is intended to be a non-actionable overview of his current market outlook. It is only a small part of the service; the bulk of the work is housed in a proprietary global database of time series data accessible only via the “Notley Terminal” and by VPN. He also advises clients in person on a regular basis.
Mr. Notley’s clients are institutions, not retail. There is no company website. There is no such thing as buying a subscription; therefore, posting a few issues of Notley’s Notes will not deprive him of income.
Mr. Notley demonstrates an incredible spirit of generosity towards students of technical analysis by appearing at affordable events such as MTA meetings such as the one you attended. I cannot imagine him objecting to sharing a few issues of his weekly newsletter with your readers, particularly in the context of your post.
Teresa
November 17th, 2006
Thanks Teresa… I guess that solves that little crisis
November 17th, 2006
Definitely, they deal with institutional clients only. I called and spoke to Marie, she kinda put me off when I said I was a retail investor, that I had heard about Ian through the ‘net and a friend at the MTA, and was interested in getting an evaluation copy of the Notley’s Notes. Said I should talk to Ian and he’d be back on Monday, can I take your number please. I said no thanks, I’ll call back. Maybe I will, maybe I won’t. I was that vague – I didn’t go into specifics about the situation, I would be leery of doing that with the hired help. While there may be no such thing as a retail investor buying a subscription to the Notes, I left my conversation with Marie having the distinct impression that I wouldn’t be getting free copies in real time and if I were to get an evaluation copy, it would have to be OK’ed by Ian himself.
I did all that before coming back and reading Teresa’s comment.
@T - It doesn’t look from your comment like you asked his opinion. Since you seem to know him well enough to be sure he doesn’t mind, I’ll take you at face value on that. I’m sorry I overreacted.
From my brief scan of the example, it’s voluminous. There are several actionable items mentioned specifically, with stock name and ticker provided and words like “short-term top” or “short-term bottom.” It doesn’t seem to me that a “non-actionable overview” would have that level of detail; does it seem that way to you?
I haven’t done an in-depth analysis of the paper, and probably won’t. Recent copies of newsletters, especially long-running ones, are worth nothing from an evaluation standpoint. In my opinion, if I were to judge his work, I’d like to see a July 1998 issue, a February 2003 issue, and an August 2004 issue, rather than the one’s posted. But I’ll wait to do that until I can get some that I’m certain he wouldn’t mind me (and several hundred of Trader Mike’s closest friends) having.
November 19th, 2006
Interesting work indeed and pass on my thanks for the material posted.
Teresa or anyone..would you know what time frame “intermediate” top refers to?..6 weeks?..longer ? shorter?
Cheers
November 19th, 2006
Mr. B -
You’ve hit the nail on the head. The problem with trend and cycles work is this: even if there were predictable cycles, there is no way of forecasting the magnitude.
T.
November 19th, 2006
True..how true…one more question which I think you may be able to answer…I’m told that there is a DVD available or was available that Ian made. Any idea how to order it if still available?
Thanks for responding.
November 19th, 2006
@ Mr. B. - call and ask is a real possibility.
Yelton Fiscal Inc.
Copps Hill Court
79 Danbury Road
Ridgefield CT 06877
Tel 203-431-9910
Fax 203-438-7684
November 19th, 2006
Call and ask who?…I’m not trying to be a dunce here….although it may seem like it. I can’t see any phone or contact info for Ian.
November 19th, 2006
Yelton Fiscal, the firm that prepares Notley’s Notes. The publishing information is in plain sight on the bottom of one of the pages of the notes, just look for it - plus I posted the contact information above. Also, there’s probably a contact name for U.S. sales, that might be the person to ask for if you’re interested in buying a DVD or material from them.
Lastly, there’s no reason to be shy. I’ve not met him, but I’m sure he puts on pants just like the rest of us, call, tell him your story and what you want, and see what happens. Worst that can happen is he tells you bugger off, best is that you get stuff for free for “evaluation.”
November 24th, 2006
Thanks Bill…success.
If anyone manages to get another update on Notley could they post a link here….only if not infringing on rights of course.
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