VCLK, Not Just Another Pretty Face
By Michelle B on Nov 15, 2006 in Michelle B's Posts, Stock Market
Michelle B submits: In the film, The Object of Beauty, when the hearing-impaired hotel maid was asked why she stole the valuable, small Henry Moore sculpture from one of the hotel’s rooms, she replied that it spoke to her. The pattern VCLK set up this past Thursday spoke just as eloquently to me, and I suppose you could say I stole a trade.
After the close on Wednesday, November 1, I noticed VCLK on the high scan and placed it on my chart pages, and then retired for the night shortly after—the market closes at 10 P.M. my time. During premarket the following morning, I did my basic research on it: reason for the move, float size, short interest, and support and resistance on various timeframes. At the open, it gapped up. Then, it pulled back sharply and filled the gap. Suddenly, eager buyers stepped in, and it reversed back up on substantial volume and made new fifty-two-week highs via a strong morning upleg. This action told me buying interest remained strong, and the chances of VCLK triggering a long daytrade later on was high.

As I flipped through my chart pages—all set at 30 minutes timeframe—during the morning, I would spend additional time watching VCLK’s price action via the one-minute timeframe. Eventually, I could see the development of a bull flag—a bull flag as perfect and beautiful as a bull flag can be.
This lovely pattern was not just another pretty face, it communicated clearly to me essential information. It said the bull flag was forming slowly, shallowly, and long enough to give the buyers from the morning upleg an opportunity either to book total or partial profits at a good price, and that new buyers were not very demanding price wise because of their eagerness to get a position in VCLK. This type of consolidation pullback resulted in no trapped and panicky buyers because it remained reasonably close to the intraday highs.
In addition, it said that the length of the bull flag was sufficient to support an additional upleg via a measured move—the shallowness was compensated by the time it took for the exchange of old buyers to be replaced with new ones. There was a high probability eventually the gentle booking of profits would end, and the eager buyers would have to accept higher offers to get a position, causing a second upleg.
Instead of relying on a thirty-minute, narrow-ranged candle to enter, I used the one-minute chart for the basis of my entry. I was watching for VCLK to pull back to intraday support at 20.70. I waited for that level to be tested. It held, and the price went up to the next resistance level at 21. Then, I entered a buy limit just above the closest support level at 20.87, near the 50 simple moving average. The stop loss was just under the pullback lows at 20.70, and the target based on a measured move was around 21.70 to 22.

My bid was hit, and the price went down a few cents before it proceeded to consolidate within a tight range. Once it broke out above the resistance at 21—I was carefully monitoring how it acted at this resistance level—it started to do the second upleg. Note just before the equilibrium between supply and demand tilted to the demand side, the volume almost came to a halt. I fondly refer to this ramp after a lull in volume as a lullipop which was cleverly coined by a trading buddy.
Also note that an additional lot could have been purchased via an automatic buy stop once the resistance at 21 was cleared. Since the price action from the open was setting up a high probability trade, I decided to anticipate a breakout, keeping my stop loss fairly tight, just under the pullback lows. But a style combining both anticipation and confirmation/reaction to the breakout could have used—see a previous trade. And of course, a pure confirmation style could have been used, with only buying once the 21 resistance was taken out.
After the resumption of the intraday uptrend was strongly in place, I set a hard trailing stop of .18. My net connection has been quite wonky lately, going down at hours at a time, and I wanted my paper profits to be protected in case if my net service was interrupted. My target was also a range from 21.70 to 22, so a trailing stop could possibly result in a better gain then if I set a sell limit as I usually do at a precise price—the trailing stop of .18 was .12 less than the targeted range. The trailing stop reached 21.39, and when the price touched 21.41, it was triggered. The early triggering of a trailing stop happens occasionally. However, because of the eagerness of buyers, my trade was closed with positive slippage at 21.47. For a risk of .20, the reward was .60, so a 3R trade, lasting about an hour and a half hours.
VCLK continued to 22.20. Did I feel perturbed that I left a R or two on the table? No. Because it was a high R trade, so what’s a few R’s among friends? That is why it is smart to plan at least a double reward to risk, because sometimes R’s will be left behind to no fault of your own. And in this way, you can at least book the same amount of reward to risk. It was a good trade, and I was pleased with it. Trading tools can be unreliable at times. And certainly, if I did lose my net connection, I would have been very happy that my profit would have been automatically booked.
(Ed: My bad for the delay in publishing this. Mike)
Tags: Bull-flags, lullipop, Measured-Moves, Narrow_Range_Bars, new-fifty-two-week-highs, pullback-lows, R-Multiples, Resistance, Risk-to-Reward_Ratio





















8 Comment(s)
By Jamie on Nov 15, 2006 | Reply
Lullipop indeed. Thanks for another insightful post Michelle. BTW, how do you calculate your measured move, are you using Fibonacci extensions?
By Michelle B on Nov 16, 2006 | Reply
Jamie, I am a Fibonacci illiterate!
In my typical low-tech fashion, I count the chart grids (I will sometimes flip from timeframe to timeframe to capture more easily summed-up whole grids instead of fractions!) comprising the first leg, and then count that same number of chart grids from the bottom of the retracement or pullback lows to the hypothetical target.
This homespun method could only be expected from a lass that uses clear plastic rulers to determine trendlines!
Since I have noticed that sometimes true fully measured moves do not happen–they can over or undershoot–I settle on ranges and use trailing stops.
I also sometimes mentally superimpose measured moves on longer timeframes on the weekly and the monthly over the shorter timeframes, coming up with a eyeballed average of the expected move. I will also use price levels, moving averages, and trendlines on various timeframes to bracket the possible next price leg.
By Red Juice on Nov 16, 2006 | Reply
Thanks Michelle, that was such a great morning read. I am curious why VCLK appeared on your high scan. I am looking back three months and, while it was close it was not at it’s 52 week high (as of Nov 1, 2006). November 1st doesn’t look like such a big move that it would have appeared on the most active gainers. Can you let me know what I am missing? Merci.
By Michelle B on Nov 16, 2006 | Reply
Hi Red Juice! My ATP (advanced trading platform) has a streaming real-time ticker or scan that tracks stock’s intra highs and lows and 52 week highs and lows during both extended and regular hours. I can set various defaults, per volume and price for which stocks are allowed to stream. Thousands of symbols flash by.
This hi/lo ticker or scan is my lifeblood, keeps me tuned to the market both during extended and regular hours. I know most symbols, so when they whizz by, I have an idea which sectors are weak or strong, by the rate of the symbols moving by, I can determine if the general market is sluggish or perky, if the hi or the lo ticker is screaming (this is how I located MATR for a capitulation trade, check my posts for the MATR one), then I know that the market is moving up or down.
I love this thing. It is not your top gainers/losers scan which on my ATP is limited to only 10 stocks at a time.
During earnings season, I will normally hangout after the close, which is 10 P.M. my time, to see if any intra highs and lows are being made. And I will jot them down, and then hit the sack. In the A.M. I then investigate via research to get a trading watchlist for that day.
If your ATP does not have this, I think you can get the feature from esignal for a monthly nominal fee (at least several years ago, you could).
By Zoomie on Nov 16, 2006 | Reply
Michelle,
Thanks for sharing this trade! I am looking to expand my toolbox in the future. This has helped a great deal!
By Michelle B on Nov 16, 2006 | Reply
Zoomie, you are very welcome.
By Peter on Nov 16, 2006 | Reply
hi micelle,
deliciuos..everytime i read about your trades, i get a great appetite to daytrade stocks again…unfortunatly ive been moving to currencys a while ago, which leaves you with quite a small pool to pick daytrading candidates…
By Michelle B on Nov 17, 2006 | Reply
Peter, Yup, some daytrades are so delicious you just want to take a bite. Best of skill with your currency trading!