Lord Luck
Michelle B submits:
When volatility is the name of the game as it has been this week, it is important to remain calm, focused, and honest. The name of the previous game was low volatility for several months. The push for performance and the angst at missing big opportunities presented by such volatility can knock traders off balance easily, including experienced ones.
Profitwise, this week of trading, so far—there is one more trading day left—has been very good for my account balance, and in analysing why I was able to do so well despite the abrupt reversal, I came up with the following:
On Monday, I exited a very profitable, swing long in FIG based on simply following my plan—its price reached my target so I closed it. Though skill, decisiveness, and patience certainly shaped the trading plan, it was luck that my target was reached the day before the sudden market decline. After the sale of FIG, I bought a swing position in WOOF on the same day, i.e., Monday.
When the market strongly gapped down on Tuesday, many stocks on my watchlist were down 6% to 12% and trended down all day, while WOOF bounced hard after its initial decline and basically stayed flat for the remainder of the day, approximately 2.5% down. I exited WOOF near the closing based on the damage I was seeing which had been made in technical chart patterns and upon the realization that I wanted as much buying power freed as possible to take advantage of big intraday moves. After the close, I found out that WOOF was in one of the few sectors hit significantly less than most others. Again, luck intervened in the sense that I replaced FIG with a stock that just happened to be in a sector that was spared pronounced carnage.
The previous week, I had closed a fairly profitable swing long in HIMX, a Taiwanese chip maker. On Tuesday, when the news of the Chinese meltdown hit, I was able to quickly place a short in a stock based on knowledge of chart patterns on various timeframes gotten from the swing trade which was done previously in HIMX. HIMX went down approximately 6% on Tuesday and another 6% down on Thursday. It was a lucky coincidence that a recently traded stock happened to be relevant to breaking news.
On late Wednesday, I was musing about taking a swing long in QID, but refrained, thinking that the consolidation following the morning bounce needed at least an additional morning to form before another leg down would follow. However, at that time I received my daily free email from Mike Paulenoff, whose analysis of QID was convincing enough for me to start an initial long position in QID. Luck surfaces yet again. On Thursday morning, the Q’s opened with a nice, fat gap down, and I was able to get about a 2.5 buck move for the overnight QID trade.
However, on Thursday morning, Lord Luck’s fabulous attention seemed to have dimmed a bit. My trading platform did not show the bid and ask for Qid during the first ten minutes after the open, and neither did it show the execution of my market order at the open nor update my buying power for the next 10 minutes. This lack of pertinent information prevented getting a better price for my shares and also slowed me down in choosing a vehicle to play the bounce. I remained patient and took a long daytrade in AKAM after the market pulled back in the afternoon. I was able to skim off a bit near the top of the recovery bounce.
I am very conscious of the role which luck played in my successful trading this week, allowing the keeping of existing profits and the additional accumulating of new profits. I will continue to maintain my discipline while learning how to adapt to this change in the trading enviroment from low to high volatility.



















This post has 6 comments
March 2nd, 2007
Well done Michelle. Reading a variety of trading blogs, it looks like quite a few trader decided to stay on the sidelines, including myself to an extent. It’s comforting to see someone profiting from the action without being reckless.
March 3rd, 2007
Thanks, Caravaggio. My understanding of how luck must be considered a part in a trader’s success comes from in a large part from reading certain of your blog’s posts. I did have a losing day on Friday, but still came out pretty OK for the week.
March 3rd, 2007
I have changed my trading (for a sinking market)
I float a ship - Large investment in an adverse (to the market) fund. I then send out small speed boats during the day to protect the ship - It’s all set up around the $ndx and the daily quicks
include trading QID and QLD within the ebb and flow of the daily trend. If the market goes up - I’m protected by my counter action in the QD’s If I catch a good wind My ship and the speed boats can triple up what is all ready being doubled. It has been working very well.
March 3rd, 2007
Paul,
Kudos on a workable approach.
If I understand correctly, you have a big short position which you hedge or increase the potency of—depending on the daily market action—via daytrades.
If so, are your small speed boats, i.e., daytrades, being hampered by technical glitches and wonky data feeds?
March 3rd, 2007
To reply to your questions Michelle:
All the following numbers are just for illustration.
Let’s say that I have $2 million put into
SOPIX (a profunds short fund replicating the $nas. It will stay there until the volitility
begins to subside.
During the day I have recognized a pattern - until it fails - where If I feel the market
is going to go up at the open I’ll buy 12000
shares of QLD until I feel the Q’s begin to stress out on the way up - I then switch to QID
assuming it is going to fall. I have $5,000
stops on either -
So far, I have traded it twice before about noon (If I recall) and have been lucky to have taken Scalping profits of about $15000. At about noon It begins to base at PP (neutral
pivot point) OK I have a $15000 advantage
leading up to 3pm It can go up or fall from then to close - who knows - If it falls
and the $nas closes down .75% I make .75%
of the $2million (15,000) plus the $15000
scalping of $15,000 = $30,000.
If on the other hand, at 3pm til the close
it goes up .60% - My (ship - SOPIX) loses
$12000 but my scalping of $15,000 = +$3,000
Now these $$$ are exaggerated - but with my personal numbers I have has some of the best days this past week - no negative days.
I hope I cleared this up and have not made it more confusing
March 3rd, 2007
“If so, are your small speed boats, i.e., daytrades, being hampered by technical glitches and wonky data feeds?”
I’m out of the market @ 3PM - most of the trouble happens after that. Sometimes, I have learned - after 3PM on a high volume day I have trouble signing on Schwab - Streetsmart
Pro - I just never stopped to learn Cybertrader
and it’s very similiar
Generally, I’m a daytrader with setups (micro)
but when I begin to run a losing streak or volitility like we have I switch into (macro)
trading ETF’s -
paul