Does Dow 13,000 Mean Everybody is Richer?
I just saw some comments about “everybody” being richer these days with the Dow in all-time high territory. We can just look at all the mortgage defaults to know that’s not the case! And don’t even get me started on drawing conclusions based on the Dow. No doubt there are many who are richer now. But I also have no doubt that there are many more who feel and/or think they’re richer but may not actually be better off than before.
The first thing came to my mind was “richer compared to what or when?” Richer compared to spring 2000 or late 2002 / early 2003? That may make a huge difference depending on how and if you were invested at those points in time. I doubt that many people’s returns track any index exactly but here are some numbers for some indices (these numbers are approximations and not measured from exact tops or bottoms):
- S&P 500 — down 1% from April 2000 and up 70% from March 2003
- Dow — up 15% from April 2000 and up 57% from March 2003
- Nasdaq — down 38% from April 2000 and up 81% from March 2003
- Russell 2000 — up 62% from April 2000 and up 125% from March 2003
So assuming your investments tracked the Dow or Russell 2000 you probably do feel richer. If they tracked the Nasdaq since 2000… maybe not so much. But there are plenty of other scenarios where your answer will vary depending on how you manged your investments.
The other point that needs to be made is that while some may feel richer and actually own more dollars, what are those dollars worth? The dollar is down 23% since April 2003 (to use the same date as above) and down 31% from a peak in July 2001.

When you factor in the fluctuating dollar the answer to whether or not one is richer these days really comes into question. One might have more dollars (pieces of paper) than before but are they actually worth the dollars you had at some earlier point in time?
The monthly charts of the above-mentioned indices are below:























This post has 16 comments
April 21st, 2007
Hi Mike,
Enjoy your sites as always. . Was curious for daytrading what your best piece of advise would be for newbies? I am trying to make a living doing this, but still just getting my feet wet. . Could you tell me your stop loss percentage.. 0.5%?? Also, when you scan for stocks to daytrade, do you have a favorite technical indicator to look at? Do you look for stocks that have wide candlesticks, or ones that are narrow. . I was reading about NR7. . Do you ever look for NR7 trades? If so, what timeframe on the NR7, 30 minute I know if your favorite.
P.S. . How much do you charge for a onsite training? I live near Douglasville, GA and feel it would be invaluable just to have you shadow me for a day daytrading to see where I could improve. .
Thanks, Kevin
April 21st, 2007
Hi Mike,
I was reading some of your posts on stop-loss, but don’t understand where you up your stop-loss when you have a profit to break even point. Meaning, if you enter a trade at $13.25, and the price goes to 13.75, then you up your stop loss to $13.25 to break even? Do you ever look at stocks with a high price/volume pop like EPCT last Friday?
Thanks again! : )
April 22nd, 2007
This is great stuff, Mike. And an excellent point. Timing can still mean everything. I suspect the “everyone is richer” refrain is to get those folks who remain unconvinced by the stock market to send their cash on in. I keep hearing how the “average” investor is not participating (mainly from the likes of CNBC). Well, then, the average investor is probably not a lot richer is s/he? And we all know what happens once the average investor jumps on board and finally gets fully invested…
April 22nd, 2007
Duru,
Yeah, the average Joe is probably still studying for their real estate license.
April 22nd, 2007
Kevin,
My advice for newbies is to read everything you can get your hands on. My list of what I consider must-reads is over in the left column of the home page of this site.
My stop loss is dictated by the technical pattern that gives me my entry signal. My stop will typically be under the nearest support for longs and above the nearest resistance for shorts. That could work out to 0.5% or 2%.
Many of your questions are answered in my “How I Trade” post. I don’t use indicators, beside a couple of moving averages. I’m looking for narrow candles and I scan for intraday NR7s all day every day. My scanner only finds NR7s on a 15 minute interval.
I don’t know what I’d charge for onsite training. I’ve never done that before so I’d have to think about it.
April 23rd, 2007
I think this is just a blip, major indicators point to a looming recession, this is not a good time for greenhorns to enter the game and this post is fair warning to any who’d prefer not to get burned.
April 23rd, 2007
Wow this is a depressing post. I would rather look at the glass as being half full, rather than half empty. I’m 29, and started investing in the market at a good time. I’m guessing that the majority of people who agree with Michael are aging baby boomers who are cynical.
April 23rd, 2007
Aaron,
Why is it depressing? I just stated some facts and then said whether or not an individual is actually richer depends on a few factors. One can’t just look at the Dow and declare prosperity for all.
April 24th, 2007
Kevin, for whatever it’s worth, I’ve made my way through Michaels site from beginning to end and have found it invaluable. It’s not a substitute for reading a few well written books, but he does an excellent job of consistently reminding one to step back, be patient, and look at the big picture. With that mindset, the direction of the market is irrelevant. Some of his earlier entries (from the inception) touch on items that would be redundant at this point. His focus has also shifted over time. Ultimately, I’m guessing everybody falls into a trading style that fits their personality. Hopefully your trading style will prove to be consistently profitable.
April 24th, 2007
Bottomline if you have 6 figures invested in the market you will be richer at Dow 13k. Not to mention those people are richer than they were 4 years ago. 2003 was huge and if you didn’t walk from the market after 2000-2002 then you made almost everything back or more depending on what you were invested in.
I’m with Jo. If the greenhorns get wet here, they might go overboard and not come back. However, thats the idea of the big money anyways. Steal from the poor.
April 24th, 2007
“if you have 6 figures invested in the market you will be richer at Dow 13k”…
You will? Why is that?
April 24th, 2007
I should have included. “With typical diversification.” With typical diversification at dow 13k your large caps will likely be higher when Dow 13k is achieved. If the dow goes to 13k the Nasdaq and R2K will likely be higher as well. Therefore the typical diversified portfolio will be worth more thus the person feeling richer. Simple really.
April 26th, 2007
Anyone with a large diversified with exposure to large caps in their portfolio is richer today than they were two days ago.
Just wanted to add that
.
April 26th, 2007
I guess all those folks can retire now after a 1.3% gain on the Dow over those 2 days.
April 27th, 2007
C’mon Mike, “Richer” not “Rich.” That was the original question? More wealth. With the right stocks that same person is up more than 1.3% gain as well.
April 27th, 2007
and with the wrong stocks they could be down… which is all I was trying to say — it depends on a a lot of factors.