I don’t know if today was THE big capitulation day everybody’s been waiting for or not. I suspect that it wasn’t but time will tell. I’m doubtful because volume, while high, wasn’t high enough for me. I also didn’t like the intraday action as far as shaking out sellers goes. I’d rather seem things look like death until the afternoon and then rally back. The quick bounce we got today was just too easy. Not to mention the fact that AAPL got crushed after hours and took the QQQQ with it.

On to the charts. I only got to a few of the requests tonight. I’m gonna try to do 10 more tomorrow morning.

First up is Worden’s T2108 indicator (the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 40-day moving averages). As we all know, below 20 signals an extreme oversold condition. It broke 20 on Friday and is currently at 17.76. Note that it’s still above the November low of 12.87 and the August low of 7.44. So things can still get worse before they get better.

On the other hand, T2107, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving averages, tells a different story with regard to the August and November lows. In the last couple of years the market has bottomed with T2107 around 30. It’s way down at 15 now! I was really surprised to see that T2107 was lower than T2108.

That’s telling us that a lot of stocks have their moving averages flipped into a bearish posture. So in many cases the 200 DMA is above the 40 DMA. Home Depot (HD) is a good example of that:

Here’s the Nasdaq. Given what Apple did after hours I think today’s low may be retested tomorrow. On the upside, lookout for the 2007 lows flipping from support to resistance.

I’m showing SPY instead of $SPX b/c it shows the true open. That could be a bottoming candle but it would be much more convincing if it had closed within Friday’s range.

Here’s the weekly QQQQ chart which shows the importance of $42.

The daily shows resistance at 44 and a step trendline. When I drew that line at 44 I had a flashback to late 2006, whe the Qs kept thrashing about 44. It’ll be interesting to see if these low 40’s become a congestion zone again.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) held some important levels during the regular session but those got blown out after their earnings report. Looks like the party’s over. On a related note, a friend of mine called me on October 29th asking whether I thought he should pour a ton of money into Apple. It was trading at 185 then. I tried my best to talk him out of it. My initial response to his question was “You’re 2 years late!!!” I need to find out if he listened to me or not. But his getting interested then is such a classic case of being late to the story and timing the top.

Google (GOOG) gapped below its long term trendline and 200-day moving average today but closed above both important levels. Saved for now.

Mighty Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) held its 2006 trendline but still looks toppy to me.

Here’s Baidu (BIDU). Next stop the low 200’s?

The homebuilders are trending nicely. Here’s the homebuilders ETF. No sign of a bottom here yet.

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