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January 8, 2008 Stock Market Recap

I finally decided on a new broker. Choosing a broker was a very frustrating experience for me. That’s partially because II was so comfortable & proficient with CyberTrader and I really hate the idea of having to familiarize myself with a new system. The other part of the frustration is that looking at these software packages is just overwhelming. (Or maybe I’m just getting old.) All the demos & feature lists make each brokers system seem like it’s the best thing since sliced bread. But then you dig deeper and/or read the reviews at EliteTrader and you don’t want to trust any of those brokers with your money.

Despite all the above, I came to a decision that I think I’ll be pretty happy with. I decided to move both my trading account and my IRA to ThinkorSwim. Given all the recommendations they got on my “I need a new broker” post they’re clearly doing something right. Their system is very feature-rich and I like that the platform can run on a Mac. Another plus is that, like CyberTrader, they clear through Penson. That should mean that availability of stocks to short is the same as at CyberTrader. The capability to trade via the web and/or a mobile device is another thing that I liked. That means when (not if) Comcast decides to disconnect me intraday I can still access my account via my cell phone.

But there are still things that I’m concerned about, like if the stops and/or alerts are really held on their servers. Another thing that bugs me is that the system is geared to options traders. That’s fine & all but I’ve never traded an option in my life & don’t plan to start. So I wish I could just turn off everything that’s doesn’t apply to plain old stocks. I’ve yet to find a way to link my Trade-Ideas scanner to ThinkorSwim’s platform nor have I found a way to match CyberTrader’s internal scanner. Hopefully I’ll figure both of those out as I continue to play with the system.

There were similar pros & cons with every broker I checked out. I finally just decided to pick one and try them out. If I can’t deal with the cons I’ll just have to jump to another broker. I’ll be sure to report how things go with ThinkorSwim.

So on to the recap…

So much for things swinging to the bulls favor. Today was a good example of why so many traders, when looking for a bottom, like to see weakness in the morning. Today’s gap up seemed to just embolden sellers. The situation that’s more likely to create a bottom is an ugly morning which flushes out weak longs and causes bears to cover and bargain hunters to start buying. That’s exactly what happened on the day of the August bottom. Speaking of that August bottom, we’re real close to a retest of those levels. Brace yourselves…

Trend Table

No changes

Trend Nasdaq S&P 500 Russell 2000
Primary Down Down Down
Intermediate Down Down Down
Short-term Down Down Down

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I’m simply using the indices’ relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

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  1. 13 Comment(s)

  2. By Dr. Duru on Jan 8, 2008 | Reply

    OK - I have swung to the bear side now. :-O True ugliness everywhere. And T2108 is still not in “oversold” territory? Yikes. Who knows where and when the next capitaulation move happens, but it is sure shaping up to be as painful as all the others we have had the past 2 years. Would be interesting to compare these waves of selling frenzies to other market periods. I think we should all be amazed the market has done as well as it has through all the periodic pain.

    Anyway, I am looking forward to your updates on your broker experiences!

  3. By Jeff White on Jan 8, 2008 | Reply

    Hey Mike,

    Congrats on finding a new broker. I left my CT accounts open but just not funded (in case they can ever work out the kinks). Anyway, were you a point-and-click trader in CT Pro or did you use hotkeys? How are you managing with thinkorswim as far as hotkeys are concerned?

    Thanks and trade well!

    Jeff

  4. By Michael on Jan 8, 2008 | Reply

    Yeah Duru, I was surprised at how little T2108 moved today.

    Jeff, I never used hotkeys on Cyber.

  5. By Formerly ADD Trader on Jan 9, 2008 | Reply

    Hi Mike,

    I can’t tell you how disappointed I have been with the switch from CT to SS Pro. I left SS Pro over a year ago to go with CT, and I truly believed that they would move most, if not all of the funtionality of CT over to SS Pro. But within 5 min of using SS Pro again, after the transition, I knew they had done nothing. It is almost like they specifically tried not to carry over any of the features that day traders need most. They are promising that changes are on the way, but I doubt it.

    I am contemplating going with IB, as I have heard good things about them, and like the idea of being able to trade stocks, options, foreign stocks, currenciies, and commodities in one place (not that I trade the last three yet, but who knows…)

    You are a computer guy, is it really so hard for someone to create an intuitive platform that has features traders need? I think I could give 10 suggestions right off the top of my head that I don’t see with any brokers.

    Formly ADD Trader

  6. By Formerly ADD Trader on Jan 9, 2008 | Reply

    …..oh yes, Time Warner (which used to be Comcast in my area), makes it a regular occurance to have their cable broadband down. Their technical support department is virtually useless in helping with the problem. However, I have Verizon DSL as well as a back up, and the good news is that their FiOs Network (Fiber-Optic) is available in my area. The are promising 15 Mbs BOTH up and down stream, for only $59.95 per month. They also have a FiOs TV package which I might get, becuase they still offer a Motorola set top box that works with my TIVO, as Time Warner has required us to switch to HD set top boxes which are not compatabile with my four TIVO (or $200 door stops as I now called them). You are lucky as I see that Comcast has gotten smart and co-branded their DVR with TIVO.

    Formerly ADD Trader

  7. By Groovedaddy on Jan 9, 2008 | Reply

    Hey Mike,
    To find out how to work all the bells and whistles on the TOS platform, call Scott Sheridan at the trading desk. I have found that if they dont have the “bell or whistle” that you are accustomed to, request a feature and they will consider it. They are great at listening to their customers and willing to make things happen if it makes sense.
    Good work.
    John aka GrooveDaddy
    PS. check out their live shadowtrader chat room during the trading day - it is amazing.

  8. By Mike O'Connor on Jan 9, 2008 | Reply

    Dr. Duru isn’t the only new bear. I rarely check out the website of Dr. Mojena http://www.mojena.com/ because it’s boring— his system seldom issues a signal of any kind.

    But by happenstance I just looked at it and he has recently issued a sell, as of 1/6/08. (He’s also moved to his boat and is sailing around the world.)

    It’s his first sell signal in more than four and a half years.

    -Mike O’Connor

  9. By YourTradingStock on Jan 9, 2008 | Reply

    It will be interesting to see how you like ThinkOrSwim. I agree. It’s never easy making that transition to a new broker.

  10. By Dave on Jan 9, 2008 | Reply

    Mike,

    As far as some of your questions go:

    They do hold their stops and alerts on their server. I’m still not completely satisfied with their list of stocks to short. Oh well, no broker is perfect.

    Before joining TOS, I too was like you (in the fact that I never cared about options), but I figure it can’t hurt to learn about them, especially with the Wednesday afternoon seminars they have.

  11. By Keith Shepard on Jan 11, 2008 | Reply

    Congrats on finding a new broker. That frustration is probably one reason I still slug it out with Schwab’s StreetSmart Pro. And yeah, the EliteTrader reviews are disheartening to say the least. It’s funny how people rip the crap out of TradeStation, but nearly every “pro” uses it or writes code for it. Go figure.

    Good trading.

    ~ Keith

  12. By Adam on Jan 13, 2008 | Reply

    Is Think or Swim direct access?

  13. By LP on Jan 14, 2008 | Reply

    Mike,

    I started with think or swim. However, I became quickly frustrated with their data service. Things that I took for granted with TS were tough in TOS. They have great customer service and the fills are pretty good. However, their data was unreliable and the scanning was below subpar. At the time they did not have TI integration. However, you can bargain them down to .08 cents a share per side.

    I would strongly recommend a back up data package to overcome the missing data and spike. I hope they improved this aspect of their platform. But this is coming from guy that has never been satisfied. So I finally moved from TS to a Neoticker, IB & eSignal configuration. My scans are much better than Trade Ideas and far far more targeted. However TI does have their scans sitting on their servers which is pretty unbeatable and you don’t have to code the scans in.

  14. By LP on Jan 14, 2008 | Reply

    Keith,

    I agree with many that TS is a piece of crap. But in world filled with junk, their crap is slightly better than most. Their customer service is the exact opposite of TOS. TS is also unapologetic and will look to blame you for everything. Nothing is ever their fault. Even when their stop server goes down in the middle of a trade. Btw, if that happens you are shit out of Luck.

    In regard to their platform, the beauty is that they have impeccable data and their system is tightly integrated for the people who don’t want to have a seperate charting package, data provider and broker.

    However, the architecture of the platform is piss poor. You cannot mix timeframes. Which means all your scans and auto trades have to be confined to signals from one time frame. Now you could do it if you are adventurous but it takes way too much effort and you need to duplicate a lot of your work. Thus at the end it’s not clean and could result in a lot of issues.

    Amibroker, Seirra, Ninja Trader and Neoticker are much better but they all suffer integration issues. But, if you ever decide to leave TS, you work pretty much will go down the drain as you will not be able to access the platform or your custom code unless you choose to pay them $100 a month.

    Other issues:

    - TS does not give you a good rate on your money. IB gives close to 4.25% I think.

    - You have a lot of slippage issues in TS on thick stocks.

    - Backtesting on it tedious. no portfolio back testing without buying some crappy add on.

    - No tick replay. Great for traders who want to practice the day over again.

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