Another day, another opening gap faded. We're 3-for-3 this week with the market gapping one way and almost immediately reversing direction. This market is a gap-fader's paradise. Despite what felt like a really bad reaction to the Philly Fed numbers today the indices are still just range-bound. It seems that the market's reaction to both good and bad news these days is "tell me something I don't already know".
T. Boone Pickens was on CNBC this morning calling for oil to retrace about $15 before eventually hitting $150. Based on the chart below I can see the attractiveness of getting short right here -- it's been overbought for a couple of weeks and could easily slip back into its 4 month long range of about 86 to 98. (I'd like CNBC to bring back all the folks who swore we'd NEVER see $100 oil.)
Lots of whipsaws around the 10-day moving averages. For practcal purposes we could really just call the short term trends "lateral" and be done with these daily moves until these ranges break.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Down | Down | Down |
| Intermediate | Down | Down | Down |
| Short-term | Down(-) | Lat | Down(-) |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
I saw CNBC's interview with Meredith Whitney today where she claimed financials could fall another 15-50% - that kind of sentiment could really pull down the indexes.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=659529306&play=1
We're past the 2/3 and 3/4 breakout point. I'm starting to think we won't see an explosive breakout as the triangle loses its potency. I shudder to think the next 6 months could be like this week though.
No such thing as a triple top....? :)
so says Macke, but I guess Pickens agrees in this case since he's ultimately calling for $150
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120372725259287195.html?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
Thanks for the link but I don't jave a Barron's subscription so I can't read it.