I've been waiting for this oversold bounce we've been in over the last two weeks to peter out. My expectation was that the longer term trends would overpower the short term trend and flip it back to down. At first glance I thought that may have started today but the low volume makes me think otherwise. Today seemed more like a lack of interest in buying than an influx of sellers.
I'm still watching for a break of the blue trendline on the S&P 500:
I'm surprised the Nasdaq held up so well on Friday given the weakness in Google, Microsoft and Apple.
Speaking of GOOG, here's a weekly chart going back to 2005. It's now more than 33% off of its all-time high and back below that important $500 level. There's a zone from about $480 to $525 that will be important for the bulls to defend.
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Down | Down | Down |
| Intermediate | Down | Down | Down |
| Short-term | Up | Up | Up |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
Mike: Everyone's watching the uptrend lines, but my charts say a weak open tomorrow is potential major downside trouble, hiding in plain sight, down just 5 SPX points (.3%) at the 15 month, 1375 horizontal support (and down .5 -1% for other indices), and that XCI and the techs may be the downside leaders, with MSFT and GOOG closing today ON their 19 month rising (linear chart) trend lines from May-June 06, with lower low, bear market targets at 27 and 450, down 10%. More short covering rallies only postpone the inevitable.
Mike,
Was wondering if you could take a look at the chart for FXI. It looks interesting to me and was wondering what your thoughts on it were.
Thanks,
James