I don't know how many times the market can be saved by the same news but the bond insurer bailout "news" saved the day once again today. Before that news broke the Nasdaq was in the vicinity of its January intraday low and the other indices (save the midcaps) weren't far behind. We ended up with reversal candles similar to yesterday's but I like today's better. That's because they covered a larger range and were accompanied by some of the strongest volume we've seen in several weeks.
A lot of people have been calling for -- and I imagine waiting for -- the January lows to be retested. Perhaps people will be motivated to put some money to work now that the Nasdaq has had its retest.
The S&P didn't get close to its January intraday lows but did take out the lowest close of the year before reversing. Only time will tell if that's enough of a retest to spark some buying.
Ditto for the Russell 2000.
The midcaps have shown good relative strength since the July bottom. MDY is a good 7% or so off of its January low. It may pay to dig down into this index to see what's working.
no changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
| Primary | Down | Down | Down |
| Intermediate | Down | Down | Down |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
I am wondering whether the break-out of intraday volume matters for a potential reversal candle? That is, on the Nazz, would the outlook change if we find thae the large volume came on all the selling for most of the day and the rebound was on light volume? I don't know whether this is what happened, but I am wondering whether it matters on the read of the daily charts...
QQQQ have not yet fully retested
IWM has about 6-7% to go..
cant stand the "Gasparino effect"..!! spoon feeding crap ..there is no deal coming tommorrow..he's full of it..
smacking the market back down on any rallies..
the fed's rate cut may not happen as many think..at least to the degree of which is being priced in..inflationary concerns are even scary to Uncle Ben
get short on any pops
The one thing that bothers me is the relatively low VIX reading compared to other bottoms.
I'd like to see another washout of long term market breath on a new low.
Hi Mike,
I think the market rallied today because of what the Japanese Yen did. I've posted charts on my blog which you may or may not find of interest which clearly illustrates this relationship between the Yen and the S&P. I've been reading your blog for a long long time...keep up the good work.
Kevin