Watchlist for March 3, 2008
Things may have seemed bad on Friday but the selling wasn’t enough to cause any serious technical damage to the charts. Sure, the bottoms of the triangles broke but the February (and January) lows are still intact.


On Today’s Calendar:
- 10:00 — Construction Spending
- 10:00 — ISM Index
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
See one of the recent ‘Chart Reading‘ posts for some potential swing candidates. Also be sure to check my typical swing trade entry & exit rules.
Potential day trades:
(From Briefing.com)
Gapping Down
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: GEHL -15.8%, DFR -11.4%… Select mortgage names showing weakness following co specific news: TMA -24.6% (announces additional margin calls of approximately $270 mln), SCA -4.6% (to take $1.5 bln charge related to credit derivatives - DJ), ABK -3.1% (cuts dividend to $0.01 from $0.07; suspends structured finance writings for six months; discontinues writing new financial services businesses)… Other news: FRPT -12.4% (announces delay in 2007 form 10-K and required restatement of form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2007), LLNW -8.1% (confirms verdict in patent trial, jury awarded Akamai damages of ~$45.5 mln plus prejudgment interest; also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Raymond James), SLT -4.6% (still checking), BG -4.4% (correcting net sales and cost of goods sold that were overstated in its 2007 unaudited quarterly financial statements), BA -4.0% (Northrop wins $40 bln tanker contract - WSJ), CEDC -3.4% (files for a mixed shelf offering; announces a $310 mln convertible notes offering under the shelf registration statement), JBL -3.2% (Lehman cuts estimates and says stock has further downside), RTP -2.4% (still checking), SYT -2.0% (still checking), BP -1.1% (still checking)… Analyst downgrades: ALNY -8.5% (downgraded to Underperform at Needham), NPSP -7.8% (downgraded to Sell at tier 1 firm, APOL -4.1% (downgraded to Sell at BofA), CVC -2.9% (downgraded to Sell at Pali Research), WDC -2.2% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), F -1.2% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup).
Gapping Up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ATPG +7.8%, HBC +4.0%, STXS +3.1%, PRX +1.1%… M&A news: DBD +64.2% (United Technologies proposes acquisition of Diebold for $40/share in cash; ATM manufacturer NCR is trading up 9% in sympathy)… Select gold stocks showing strength with higher spot prices: HMY +4.6%, GFI +2.9%, GOLD +2.1%, AUY +1.4%… Other news: BRLC +12.7% (signs LCD panel supply agreement with LG.Philips LCD), BONT +10.1% (Barron’s makes positive comments), MFN +7.5% (still checking), NOC +5.6% (wins $40 bln tanker contract - WSJ; also upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), ETFC +4.4% (WSJ reports with Layton as Chief Executive, might be angling for a sale), SLM +3.3% (closes new financing facilities), COIN +3.1% (Barron’s interview with Dennis Gartman discusses his current long positions including COIN), AEM +1.4% (reports investment in Forum Uranium Corp. and concurrent option agreement; also Cramer had CEO as guest on MadMoney to discuss co’s outlook and growth prospects)… Analyst upgrades: MELI +3.7% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC), LULU +3.4% (upgraded to Mkt Perform at BMO), OSIP +1.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Wachovia), PIR +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Wachovia), EGLT +1.3% (initiated with an Buy at Piper Jaffray), AU +1.2% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), ENTR +1.2% (initiated with an Buy at Piper Jaffray), DV +1.1% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman), ETR +1.0% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies).
Disclaimer & How I use this list



















This post has 7 comments
March 3rd, 2008
Mike,
Could you note exactly what section on Briefing you find the Watchlist? Specifically the gap down/gap up list.
Thanks!
March 3rd, 2008
The Gapping lists are in the “In Play” section of Briefing.
March 3rd, 2008
I agree, but you can paint the chart two ways. Don’t forget that we “closed” lower then any close this year. That’s worth noting as well.
March 3rd, 2008
I should clarify that I was referencing the nasdq 100
March 3rd, 2008
Thanks for the leads. I bought into one (I could afford) today and already made a profit. I’m a newbie and eagerly await your watchlists and other postings. Happy trading.
March 3rd, 2008
Hi Mike,
This question is not related to this post but; being in a swing trade, how do you limit your risk to daily gaps. I mean, a stock can gap down 50% in the morning. So, naturally, in day trading, your stop would trigger and you would be out with some damage. However, in a swing trade, after hours news can cause a loss of thousand of dollars. Do you reduce size of the position as opposed to day trading or hedge or have a minimal number of trades going at the same time to reduce risk, or avoid earning days? I hope I am being clear. Thanks. Always enjoy your blogs.
March 3rd, 2008
Alex,
You really can’t limit your risk when holding overnight unless you come up with some kind of hedge. That’s why I avoided earnings season when I was swing trading.
But even with day trading you can get caught. A stock can have some huge news come out mid-session that could wreak havoc on your position. That’s rare but it happens. It’s a reason to be real careful about trading stocks that are moving on nothing but rumors.