May 29, 2008 Stock Market Recap
We’re starting to repeat what happened at the end of April when the dollar was rallying and gold dropping. The dollar made it back above its now upward-sloping 50-day moving average. Back on the 18th of this month I wrote about resistance for gold around 950. Well it didn’t quite make it that far. Sellers stepped in around 935 and sent it back under its 50-day moving average. It’ll be interesting to see if it takes out the May low or not.
Oil had some wild swings intraday thanks to the inventory report. It’s cooling off some but it’s certainly not broken.
I’m back to talking about 200-day moving averages again. Both the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq traded above those moving averages intraday but sellers push them back beneath by the close. If the DELL news carries over we should see the Nasdaq gap over the 200 DMA in the morning.
A few changes today
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Term | Lat(+) | Down | Lat(+) |
| Intermediate | Up | Up(+) | Up |
| Short-term | Up(+) | Lat(+) | Up |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I’m simply using the indices’ relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
This post has 4 comments
May 30th, 2008
on the trendline for the S&P you say we broke through it. I’m curious how you choose the points for the trend line. Why couldn’t a trendline be drawn to the current price?
May 30th, 2008
according the the rules that I posted here — http://tradermike.net/2006/01/drawing_trendlines/
In this case the line goes from the highest high, down and to the lowest minor high point preceding the lowest low so that the line does not pass though prices between the two high points
May 30th, 2008
I think I get it, you’re using the high (the doji bar) and then the 2nd bar to the right to make the trend line? If so, I don’t think a trend line made from bars only 2 apart would be very valid.
Either price will now turn down, in which case the current bar would become the 2nd point of the trend line?
or if price goes up then the lowest low will become the first point of an up trendline?
May 30th, 2008
It’s a very short term trendline. You have to expect those to be broken and change a lot by they’re very nature.
A new line would be drawn, with yesterday’s high as the 2nd point if price drops to a new low.