There were a lot of cross-currents today thanks to strength in the dollar and more woes in the financial and retail sectors. The dollar appears to finally be moving out of the base it's been building since March. It closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since April of 2006. I got an email tonight asking me if I'm "thinking it’s worth a trade or is it an oversold (Ed: overbought?) POS doomed to end in tears?" I wish I could answer that question definitively. This close over the 200 DMA certainly seems to be a signal that the corner's being turned but we can never know for sure until after the fact. If I wanted to play it I'd jump in and put my initial stop around the 50-day moving average and just see what happens. Here's a chart of the dollar:
And here's another which shows the slide since 2005. As you can see, there's plenty of overhead resistance. There's probably also the makings of a pretty good short squeeze. Place your bets...
Here's a shot of oil's chart:
The Nasdaq, in classic style, fell right back to its breakout point.
We've got a nice ascending triangle forming on the S&P:
And the Russell's trying to hold on to its July uptrend.
A couple of downgrades today
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Term | Down | Down | Down |
| Intermediate | Lat | Down | Up |
| Short-term | Up | Lat(-) | Lat(-) |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
Thanks for the LT chart on the dollar. Shows just how many false rallies and break-outs it has had on the way down, down, down...
Hmmm...Gold is down this morning.
Is the Weekly $Gold chart forming a double top? The daily chart shows price sitting right on the 200-Day EMA. Hmmm...wonder if that bodes well for the USD or if the sell off in gold and oil is just a normal part of a longer bull market....