Watchlist for September 11, 2008

Well here we go again with another gap down. Lehman is leading the way by trading down another 42% in the premarket. Here's a little something on LEH that Briefing.com (via the WSJ) just posted:

Lehman Brothers' biggest problem -- its high exposure to commercial real-estate holdings -- hasn't been solved - WSJ (7.25 ) -Update-
WSJ reports the co's biggest problem -- its high exposure to commercial real-estate holdings -- hasn't been solved. Investors would have cheered Lehman's restructuring plans, announced Wednesday, if the bank had reported a sharp drop in its commercial real-estate holdings. But the decline was a modest $7.2 billion, leaving $32.6 billion on its balance sheet at the close of its fiscal third quarter ended Aug. 31. The commercial real-estate holdings unnerve investors because they dominate Lehman's balance sheet. They still are 1.7 times as big as the bank's common equity of $19.5 billion. In addition, there is uncertainty about the value Lehman has placed on these assets. That uncertainty could intensify in light of what Lehman intends to do with its commercial real estate. The firm plans to spin off these assets into a separate company owned by Lehman shareholders in its fiscal first quarter of 2009. Notably, the new entity won't use market values for the assets it holds.

That last line really gets me! These guys are just clowns.

Anyway, here are the index charts. I'm still watching the names that are off of their 2008 lows for shorts -- the likes of IWM, XLF, IAI and maybe even RTH...

On Today's Calendar:

nothing

More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic

Potential swing trades:

See one of the recent 'Chart Reading' posts for some potential swing candidates. Also be sure to check my typical swing trade entry & exit rules.

Potential day trades:

(From Briefing.com)

Gapping Down

In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: KNXA -19.8% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Lazard and downgraded to Underweight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts), LULU -11.1%, ACTL -5.0%... Select mortgage/financial stocks trading lower: LEH -40.7% (cut to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs- DJ and downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), MER -15.0%, WM -13.4%, IRE -11.4%, RDN -11.1%, SNV -10.4%, SCA -8.8%, AIB -8.5% (downgraded to Sell at Dresdner Kleinwort), MTG -8.0%, ABK -7.6%, PMI -7.5%, MS -7.5%, AIG -7.4%, MBI -6.3%, RBS -6.2%, BAC -6.1% (ests cut at Credit Suisse and RBC lowering ests following recent disclosures), AXA -6.0% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), UBS -5.9%, BCS -5.9%, LYG -5.9%, WB -5.8%, ING -5.4%, GS -5.0%, DB -4.8%, C -4.3%, JPM -3.3%, WFC -3.0%, NMR -2.3% (leads Asian financials down after Lehman loss - Bloomberg.com)... Select metals/mining stocks trading lower with strength in dollar and lower spot prices: GOLD -4.0%, GFI -3.7%, BHP -2.7%, MT -2.2%, RTP -1.4%, HMY -1.3%, GLD -1.3%... Select solar names showing weakness: FSLR -7.0%, YGE -5.6%, LDK -5.2%, JASO -5.1%, TSL -4.9%, CSIQ -4.4%, ESLR -4.2%... Other news: CHL -5.1% (trading ex-dividend)... Analyst comments: PDLI -5.3% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), AEG -4.9% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), NVDA -4.8% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Lehman), AZN -3.6% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), RAI -1.8% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley).

Gapping Up

With equity futures trading significantly lower this morning (S&P futures -18, Dow futures -130), very few stocks are trading higher in premarket... In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CSX + 4.8%, GCOM + 3.7%