Watchlist for September 16, 2008

Posted on September 16th, 2008 in Watchlists

I was planning to take the day off as I always do for Fed decision days but I’m calling an audible today. There are just too many movers out there today that *should be* immune from what the Fed decides to do with interest rates at 2:15. I’m still most interested in the groups that have just started to crack — some financials, retail and real estate.

(Edit at 10:33 — I just closed a gap fade trade on the SPY. It filled (retraced) about 80% of the gap. I’m taking my 0.8R of profit and taking the rest of the day off.)

On another note, like Barry, my site also had a surge in traffic yesterday. Visits were about 50% higher than the previous Monday. A large part of that were people searching for “Inverse ETFs“. Those searchers continue to stream in today. For folks who aren’t short-term traders that play seems a bit too obvious to be profitable right now. I fear that a lot of folks are sticking their faces into a buzzsaw.

On Today’s Calendar:

2:15 — FOMC Policy Statement

More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic

Potential swing trades:

See one of the recent ‘Chart Reading‘ posts for some potential swing candidates. Also be sure to check my typical swing trade entry & exit rules.

Potential day trades:

(From Briefing.com)

Gapping Down

In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RBCN -17.7%, LWSN -8.9%, OI -8.5%, GS -7.6%, BBY -6.2%… Select financial-related news showing continued weakness: AIG -32.1% (ratings lowered and kept on CreditWatch Negative at S&P), UBS -13.6%, MS -13.0% (credit default swaps rise 275 bps to 750 bps, according to Phoenix Partners - Reuters), RBS -12.0%, WM -10.0% (downgraded to ‘BB-/B’ (junk status) from ‘BBB-/A-3′; Outlook Negative at S&P), RDN -8.2%, WB -6.9%, NCC -6.5%, SCA -6.3%, ABK -5.4%, ING -5.2%, SNV -4.5% (Fitch downgrades Synovus Financial Corp’s ratings; outlook negative), BAC -2.4%, JPM -1.6%… Select oil/gas names showing weakness with crude lower: STO -3.6%, RDS.A -3.3%, BP -1.8%, TOT -1.6%, E -1.3%… Select solar names trading lower: ESLR -13.2%, JASO -6.1%, CSIQ -5.6%, FSLR -3.0%, LDK -1.9%, SPWR -1.8%… Select tech names trading lower following cautious comments from DELL: DELL -8.3% (sees further softening in global information technology demand), NOVL -5.2%, EMC -5.0%, YHOO -3.2%, INTC -2.4%, MSFT -2.3%, GOOG -2.1%, SYMC -1.8%… Other news: TRGT -40.9% (the co and AstraZeneca announce top-line results from Phase 2b Study of AZD3480 in Alzheimer’s disease were inconclusive), SPNC -6.1% (VIVA has elected to temporarily suspend enrollment in the study after being contacted by the FDA about a potential safety concern), NOK -2.6% and INTC -2.4% (still checking for anything specific)… Analyst comments: WPI -4.3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman- DJ), NBR -3.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC), PTEN -3.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), AAPL -3.2% (removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman - Bloomberg), BRCM -3.1% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), BIG -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), MU -2.1% (downgraded to Market Perform at JMP).

Gapping Up

In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CPSL +5.6%, PLL +3.2%… M&A news: DSCP +5.0% (Getinge agrees to acquire co for $53 per share in cash)… Select airline stocks ticking higher with crude lower: LCC +5.9%, UAUA +5.2%, CAL +4.2%… Other news: LEH +14.3% (in talks to sell assets to Barclays - WSJ), MNKD +5.3% (reports positive data from a Ph. 3 clinical study of Technosphere Insulin in Type 1 diabetes; also the co and Pfizer announce collaboration for certain Exubera patients to transition to MannKind’s inhaled insulin therapy), ASML +3.3% (still checking), SJM +3.3% (announces declaration of one time special $5 Dividend), WFC +3.2% (confirms Q3 non-cash charge for Lehman Brothers structured notes, preferred securities), HRS +2.9% (will replace LEH in the S&P 500 after close on 9/19), PLXS +1.6% (awarded manufacturing contract with Kirby Lester)… Analyst comments: SAP +2.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse).