I was just labeled a putz by some clown on the Elite Trade message boards because I "only tell what happens, not what will." It's my greatest fear in life for a total stranger to call me a putz starting now I will make 100% accurate predictions of future market moves. My crystal ball is telling me that "prices will fluctuate."
Prices fluctuated like mad once again today. One thing is certain in this market -- there's no shortage of volatility. The VIX made another all-time high today despite most of the indices making higher lows. I'm no student of the VIX, and I know it's kinda wacky right now, but that seems like a pretty significant bullish divergence to me if you treat the VIX as just a fear indicator.
Volume is playing an important role of late too. I noted the surprising lack of volume yesterday and today we got the highest volume of the week. That volume accompanied what appears to be a successful retest of last week's lows. I prefer to see a lower low made on a retest but you have to take what you can get. (The Nasdaq 100 did make a lower low today before reversing.) The bulls have to be pretty happy with the action today but they still need to produce some follow-through and break through resistance.
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Term | Down | Down | Down |
| Intermediate | Down | Down | Down |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
I can't believe people actually WANT someone to predict market action. It's just silly. These people must think astrology is a viable trading method. Could be worse I suppose. Some punter on Maoxian's blog just nominated Bill Cara as "Putz of The Year" (comment #10 in thread below):
â–¼ http://maoxian.com/archive/veteran-traders-disquieted/#comments
Putz must be in the air. Lulz for putz.
Sweet. I'm betting the farm on this prediction in the overnight market right now.Clearly that guy hasn't read 'Trading in the Zone' or he would know that one doesn't need to know what will happen next in order to make money.
Those were some incredible Cara quotes over on maoxian's site!
Clearly that guy hasn’t read ‘Trading in the Zone’ or he would know that one doesn’t need to know what will happen next in order to make money.
Exactly right.
Why are you reading Elite Trader?
I don't read that site. I just saw some traffic coming from there in my referral logs and went to check it out.
My faith in you is restored!
Don't concern yourself with that guy I can say without hyperbole that he is one of the biggest clowns I have encountered in either real life or the internet. He is the worst kind of buy and hope permabull who has as of late taken to calling this a "fake credit crunch" and "mental recession".
My gut tells me we'll be making lower highs & higher lows over the next few weeks to form a pennant.
Hindight is 20/20 for a reason.
Foresight is more valuable.
What are you afraid of, being wrong or more wrong than right?
If I was afraid of being wrong more that being correct I would have quit trading a long time ago.
I think that people who actually read my blog know that sometimes I do say what I think will happen. Just a few days ago I pointed out the walls of resistance at last Monday's gaps. And yesterday morning I said that I saw a ton of shorts and gave a bunch of short candidates. Not to mention the many times I've said it's time to buy and/or cover shorts when T2108 and other indicators hit certain levels.
But it would be foolish of me to make proclamations about market direction as if I actually did have a crystal ball. And what's with the people who want such predictions? Folks really need to just figure out their own systems instead of trying to rely on some alleged guru.
keep up the good work, dont let the haters get you down
Cheap shot Fortune8
Technical analysis is what it is. Understanding it is probably above your pay grade.
There's nothing wrong with pointing out possibilities. Up, down, or sideways.. Right?!
Trader Mike,
I think you are doing a great job. Keep it up.
Thank you.
Jamie,
I visit blogs to get ideas and opinions, some I agree with and some I don't. Make a stand and get off the fence.
I am brutally honest and will be the first to admit that I am wrong.
Fortune8,
If you feel that there's nothing worthwhile on my site you're free to not visit it.
Apple Investors We’re two-Thirds of the Way There - http://www.zacharybass.com/2008/10/apple-investors-were-two-thirds-of-the-way-there.html
Above is an example of what I am talking about. How does the author know we are 2/3 there? Why not 1/3 or there?
Michael, I do visit your site from time to time and the trend table is useful.
Don't know why I feel like I need to clarify this...but I do.
I posted this comment:
"My gut tells me we’ll be making lower highs & higher lows over the next few weeks to form a pennant."
Someone who claims to be Jamie posted this comment:
"Cheap shot Fortune8. Technical analysis is what it is. Understanding it is probably above your pay grade."
So, person posing as Jamie, I do not believe fortune8's comment was directed at me - in fact it would make no sense if it were, because I was making a forward-looking statement to begin with.
Jamie,
The other Jamie is Jamie who blogs at Wall St. Warrior ( http://traderjamie.blogspot.com/ )