It was another ugly day, this time with 5% losses on the indices. The drop brought the indices back to the bottoms of their recent ranges. They're threatening to break to new multi-year lows and judging by the after-hours session they will make good on those threats tomorrow morning.
I love to complain about the indices rising on light(er) volume and now I'm seeing the opposite situation -- selling off on light volume. The relatively light volume really stands out when you compare today's volume to the volume at the October lows. I'm especially interested in seeing if volume surges significantly tomorrow. Just like I don't trust breakouts on relatively light volume I don't trust breakdowns on light volume either.
With the Intel news, big cap tech should be under serious pressure tomorrow. Let's see how the Qs hold up.
no changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Term | Down | Down | Down |
| Intermediate | Down | Down | Down |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
I agree re: tech. Also, this headline caught my eye tonight:
Google shares below $300 for first time since 2005; SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Shares of Google Inc on Wednesday fell below $300 for the first time since late 2005 after analysts lowered their estimates on the Internet search giant, citing a weak advertising market.
It might be more instructive to look at those stocks that are breaking down to new 52-week lows on high volume? I also think I heard that Friday is the next window for hedgie redemptions. If the requests come in much higher than expected, perhaps we see more volume return starting on Friday (if we don't get it Thursday).
Newbie Q - I searched the FAQ and archives and didn't find this... You mention volume confirmation on a price breakdown. What are the best ways to find intraday volume? Once found, do you simply compare the intraday volume to the intraday point for previous days, or is there an easier way to seek volume confirmation during the trading day?
Smitty,
I don't know of a good way to tell what the day's volume is gonna be in real time. It can be tough to do b/c sometimes you'll get a ton of volume right at the close.
What I usually do is use my Trade-Ideas scanner as a guide. Volume surge is one of my key filters so I can usually guess whether overall volume is high or low just by how many alerts are hitting the scanner.
Trade-Ideas also provides the "percent of normal volume" field for stocks, so one could presumably get a good idea of the indices' volume by tracking QQQQ, SPY, DIA, etc. I imagine other data packages have similar indicators.
I think I've seen Dr. Brett (traderfeed.blogspot.com) write about tracking intraday volume but don't quote me on that.
"Selling off on light volume"...means there's no one left in this
I am not sure I understand the question or have the answer, but if you have a r-t charting program you can usually plot a moving average of the volume and look for a rise above - say - a 30-day moving average.
But I may have completely misunderstood what you were asking.
As I understand it, the question is -- "How does one know, at 10:00 if the volume is on pace to be above or below average for the entire day?"
I think it's a tricky thing to do b/c so much of the day's volume comes near the open and near the close.