We've got a gap up for a change. If I were trading today -- I'm not b/c of options expiration -- I'd be watching for the October low on the Dow. It would be a good sign for the bulls if it can climb back over that level but it's probably more likely that it becomes resistance.
On Today's Calendar:
- nothing
More Calendars: U.S. Earnings | Conf. Calls | Surprises | IPO | Economic
Potential swing trades:
See one of the recent 'Chart Reading' posts for some potential swing candidates. Also be sure to check my typical swing trade entry & exit rules.
Potential day trades:
(From Briefing.com)
Gapping Down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ADSK -19.7% (also downgraded to Neutral at Baird, downgraded to Underperform at Merrill and downgraded to Hold at Kaufman Bros), CE -16.1% (also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), CSIQ -3.7% (also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), NVLS -3.5% ANN -3.4%... Other news: TIVO -2.6% (TiVo statement on order by U.S. District Court, Eastern District of TX and scheduled additional damages and workaround hearing)... Analyst comments: GR -5.7% (downgraded to Market Perform at Friedman Billings), SPWRA -2.5% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), VMW -1.8% (downgraded to Sell at UBS).
Gapping Up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ARUN +22.6% (light volume), CRM +11.7% (also upgraded to Outperform at Baird), HNZ +5.2%, DELL +4.5%, GPS +4.0% (also upgraded to Outperform at Cowen and upgraded to Buy at Citigroup)... M&A news: DISK +189.9% (signs definitive merger agreement to sell co for ~$100 mln; stockholders to receive $2.75 per share in cash)... Select financials rebounding from sharp 2 day decline: IRE +24.3% (receives 'unsolicited' investment approaches - Bloomberg.com), CS +15.7%, DB +12.4%, HIG +12.2% (comments on its highly rated commercial mortgage-backed securities portfolio), C +9.6% (Director bought 35K shares at $8.15 on 11/18; not seeking any Government aid, unusual client activity or additional TARP money-person close to bank according to person close to bank - Reuters), BCS +9.5%, CIT +7.5%, MS +7.3%, COF +7.2%, WB +6.1%, RF +5.7%, ING +5.3% (ING Group settles over Dutch insurance premiums - Reuters.com), HBC +5.2%, BAC +4.9%, WFC +3.9%, GS +3.8%, BK +1.7% (said that it will reduce its worldwide workforce of 43,000 by ~4%, or 1,800 positions)... Select metals/mining names showing strength: AU +19.7%, AAUK +18.9%, GOLD +17.2%, BBL +17.0%, MT +16.8%, BHP +15.4% (EU tells BHP its iron-ore plan may jeopardize Rio bid - Bloomberg.com), RIO +14.2%, RTP +13.4% (EU tells BHP its iron-ore plan may jeopardize Rio bid - Bloomberg.com), HMY +12.4%, GFI +11.4%, GLD +1.5%... Select oil/gas names showing strength with crude higher: BP +7.8%, TOT +7.7%, RDS.A +7.1%, PBR +6.5%, COP +4.1%, SLB +3.8%, CVX +3.3%, XOM +2.9%... Select drybulk shippers modestly rebounding: DRYS +16.8%, SBLK +8.3%, DAC +5.6%, EXM +5.5%... Solar names trading higher despite multiple analyst downgrades of select names and disappointing CSIQ results: SOL +17.6%, YGE +16.8%, ESLR +12.7%, STP +11.3%, LDK +7.1%, FSLR +2.5%... Other news: LGND +46.6% (Ligand Pharma collaborator GlaxoSmithKline receives FDA approval for PROMACTA), CLNE +10.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), PETD +9.7% (amends its revolving bank loan agreement; Increased by $75 mln to $375 mln), HLX +7.0% (co is unaware of any reason why recent trading of the stock has resulted in a significant decrease in its price of the last few days)... Analyst comments: MSFT +9.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), XTXI +5.6% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman- DJ), NVTL +2.2% (upgraded to Neutral at Piper), PEP +1.4% (initiated with Buy at Citigroup).
Disclaimer & How I use this list
Let me the try the analysis on this....
Bull Case:
Dow reversed hard on increased volume, and closed above the Oot lows, and the psych important 8k level
Vix looks like it might have put in a double top.
Oil may have put in a TEMP bottom on the expiration gap down yesterday, and hammer today.
Bear Case:
NAZ and SP reversed as well, but neither closed above the Oct lows.
The increased volume on the Dow and SP is probably due to OEX, and volume on the NAZ was less than yesterday.
AAPL, which I think is the best proxy for the market, did break 85.00 this week, but did not plunge or capitulate. Would like to have seen that.
Conclusion:
Probably a technical bounce. Going into a light volume week like Thanksgiving, the market often can be pushed up very easy, and is certainly due, still being very oversold.
If the C saga gets solved or some serious clarity over the weekend, it may be a catalyst to keep this rally going into next week.
If you got long today, look to sell stregth next week, and look for stocks to stall at their Oct low resistance point to start new shorts. And watch AAPL.
Ta-da....!!!
Formerly ADD Trader