On Hiatus

Hey Mike!
I like your site

Mike,
I hope this isnt to dumb a question, Is it possible to take much of the risk out of day trading and possibly earn small profits?
In the early 2000s I had some moderate success with day trading.But eventually I gave back my profits, but never lost money overall. I would follow top gainers and use momentum trading.get in on an up turn and get out.
could you help me with some basic strategy?
to kep from losing my savings.
thanks, Scott

Happy Holidays, man! Cheers!

=^.^=

hihi happy holidays nice 2009 cheers

Happy Holidays to you and your family.

I have really enjoyed reading your blog everyday. You are very knowledgeable. In fact, your blog is the only one I read daily.

Thanks for all your hard work, and please keep it up!

Mark

Thanks guys. Enjoy the holidays!

I always enjoy reading your opinions...Since we all know the news is a lagging indicator of the stock prices and actions, I'm hoping the market is building a base here! I still can't get over this feeling that when it's dropping nobody wants it, when it's rising, everybody wants it...The sickening feeling of being long when the news is brutal, I pulled all my money out in late 2007 giving up on shorting things that are now all down on average 80%...I like "Fast Money" on CNBC, otherwise 80% of what is on CNBC during the day/nite is utter bullshit or filler...I'd say the short game is now officially over, but don't chase the highs...merely sitting and drifting is bullish, I think the SPY has formed a reverse head and shoulders base for the next few months, probably dead action...I got to the point with Qcharts where I could predict daily/intradaily action which ultimately drove me insane. And I missed the huge dump, just like in 99-02 I just couldn't sit on shorts! Well, I love your site, it is the best. And you don't switch back and forth repeatedly like manic James Cramer, who will help you flush everything you have as he is paid to talk

Also, when CNBC has gone pretty much 24 hours a day now, how can you sleep sitting on big positions! I live in Vegas, and at least when you bet a game the stupid thing is over in about 2 hours, win/lose/draw you can unplug mentally from it, whereas I have never been able to not sweat everything I do in the market, I wake up at 3AM in a panic, with this overseas analysis stuff, "Hello, this is Christy Thom in Shangai, the markets are getting SHCLAAAAAMMED! in early action (she takes like 10 seconds to say "slammed") while I'm puking my guts out (If I was long)...If I'm short, I jolt myself to cover gap down open 5AM PST, only to watch in horror as the Dow drops all day to close down 600. You are honest Mike, you always say what you are doing yourself, you never push it too hard, you aren't greedy...(You'd never make it as a scumbag stock broker or "client wealth manager")...those guys are worthless and helped drive everyone's wealth down the crapper. They should be shot (that's being kind!)...All I need is some moron broker telling me not to short or to hold on to my position, or buy more on margin, since he's getting spiffed or big commissions for margin interest, or pushing his firm's crap stocks on a unsuspecting public. I have a higher opinion of child molesters, at least they hesitate before doing their crimes, stockbrokers and money managers never hesitated to watch their "clients" dump on margin longs and lose it all...Can next year be worse?

Oh,and don't be suprised how many of these jerkoff stockbrokers are trying to sell you used cars or working at boiler room FHA loan centers selling 200,000 (I mean worthless) crap "houses" to poor people for spiffs...truly you'd be amazed at how many of your aggressive stockbrokers are "reformed" gamblers who not knowing technical analysis at all dumped all their life savings into daytrading on margin. I think that when Trader Mike says he's sitting on the sidelines what he means is these inflection points are so tricky, so powerful, that if you "guess" and are wrong you are simply ROADKILL and you can lose so much so fast you CANT RECOVER! I'm telling you first hand! I love when TraderMike would show up or down channells formed, with break points to show you where all the money was heading for a big showdown decision either breaking down or gapping up thru resistance! These times are best spent on the fence watching! If you roll the dice and are right it is the greatest feeling in the world, but if you are wrong, then it's simply too dangerous! Everyone, and I mean everyone, is susceptable to dumping the whole bankroll, your life savings, your family's life savings, it is extremely scary and you have to had lived thru it to understand the trap you get in mentally! If you always stay at your "top number" mentally/psychologically, you always feel good about yourself and can trade with confidence...BOY, once you're down in your mind, you can easily lose the whole enchilada, I've seen many do it, I myself flushed my whole life savings in a manner of weeks as time compression takes hold, and you chase! I dumped like $30,000 chasing a HANS short on a squeeze in May 2006 as I wouldn't cover and watched it gap up 18 the next day, and I sat in HORROR as it went up like 45 points in 3 days, so I covered at the top and watched it drop finally and drop and drop while I sat there like an idiot. You can't know what it's like, until you are in the "hot seat", you just want to die! Some have nerves of steel, but the ultimate kicker is when you are watching your account balance drop thousands or tens of thousands each day, you lose your mind...I consider tech analysis a very sharp and dangerous tool that MOST people don't really understand...TraderMike is a rare individual who does. Proper TA would have gotten you short the whole 2008 disaster year for the most part, with some insane bear market rallies that can't be described in mere words...Realize this people, most "investors" sat on their longs all year and got toasted, as their "stockbroker" held their hand and told them to "think long-term" and holding on is always "the best thing to do"...well, tell your recently laid off stockbroker the "best thing to do" is to add some xtra ketchup to your BigMac!

Oh, and to all the stockbrokers out there that advised their clients to stick it all in cash or T-bills, then I commend you as being honest and of decent morals...My experience is that guy has grey hair and is "kinda slow" but he saved your ass! The hotshot slicked out "money guys" all got creamed, their idea of a bear market is when GOOG drops from 500 to 450 then you get in big on 3X margin for the ride back up to 900! These guys are extremely dangerous!! I want a guy that felt the pain of the last bad-ass bears: 74-75, 80-82, 89-92, 98 plunge, 00-02 bear...otherwise, they think the stockmarket is "fun" and "let's play" hee hee hee, boy this is fun! Hurray for the stock market, it is lots of fun! Tell that to your parents as they describe dumping their million dollar retirement into Lehman or Bearstearns as the broker said "it can't lose!"...oh, and my friend told me oil was going to crash thru significantly below $60 in April 2008 and I told him he was crazy! Of course I teased the heck out of him as oil went from $130 to $148! Now he looks like Nostradomus (sp?) or something...How many hedge funds dumped on long oil contracts? Oh, and I should have bought long SPY when the dow sat at 7200 all day, everyone was freaking out, the world was ending, and well then you buy, but how do you handle it? If anyone reads this post, please reply as to how you can say you went long at dow 7200 panic day? I mean you must have some big Wontons to do that! I'm sure were already long and dumping badly, so did you pull out the big ammo, or were you already dumping on margin (margin is equivalent to holding nitroglycerin on a rollercoaster ride)...MARGIN DESTROYS PEOPLE IN A BEAR MARKET! always remember this!!!!! anyone who gets/talks you into margin during a nasty bear like this one deserves 22 days/nights in Saddaams torture cell!

Mike,
do you agree with this assessment?

Some traders are still holding out hope that a Santa rally will sweep stocks higher in the final week of the year, though there is no expectation that volume will improve until January. They also caution that a new round of hedge fund redemptions could pound the markets early in the year, dampening any January buying.

"I really think the biggest indicator is the Treasury market. That is the absolute number one thing to watch," said Patrick Boyle of LaBranche Financial. "These big funds and investment banks and governments around the world are long U.S. Treasurys for liquidity purposes." As they roll out of Treasurys, he said money should flow into stocks.

"If in the first couple days of January, Treasurys continue to look strong and people still hate the market, look out below," he said.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28381177

Happy New Year Mike and may 2009 be your next best year.