January 2009 Archives

This was a disappointing day for the bulls from a technical standpoint. All three of the indices which I usually track fell back under their 50-day moving averages. They also gave back all of yesterday's enthusiastic, bank & financials fueled rally. The fact that today's selling came on decreasing volume is small consolation.

The bulls tried hard to support the S&P 500 at 850 but late day selling pushed it back below that highly watched level. This is looking like a classic retracement to the 50-day moving average before resuming the downtrend.

The S&P breaking its 50 DMA didn't really surprise me since it closed just a few points above that line. The Nasdaq's break of its 50 DMA was surprising to me given how it looked like it was ready for blastoff by gapping over it yesterday. I guess we can chalk yesterday's buying up as a one-day wonder.

A similar story for the small caps.

The financials are having a big impact on the day-to-day broader market moves. The XLF chart shows just how helter skelter they've been recently. The gaps in the underlying stocks have been insane. This is the kind of stuff that makes me glad that I don't hold stocks overnight anymore. The index sure seems drawn to last week's gap, which is also around the November closing low.

No changes

The indices were able to clear their 50-day moving averages yesterday. That's a pretty big deal for the bulls but at least one of those triumphs is being tested this morning. The S&P 500 should open close to its 50-day moving average and I expect a bull-bear battle to gain control of that line.

I don't have much to say different from what I said last night. The indices stayed within yesterday's ranges, making inside days. That shows a lack of conviction which I assume is due to the Fed decision tomorrow. We did get some strength after-hours on news of the so-called "bad bank" plan. BofA (BAC) was up 8% after-hours so the financials will be worth focusing on tomorrow. Many will be gapping right into resistance so they may be good fade opportunities...

No changes

The indices continued their range-bound trading today. The early strength gave way to selling mid-morning. I'm not sure whether to blame it on Obama's economic press conference or technicals -- the Nasdaq approaching its 50-day moving average and the indices hitting last week's range tops. I suspect we will have more of this range trading through Wednesday's Fed decision.

Three sessions ago I said "My guess is that the bulls probably have two or three days of partying in AAPL before it hits the wall and is ripe for renewed selling..." It's been three days and the stock seems to be stalling right at the 50-day moving average. If I was still swing trading I'd have an order set to short it under today's low with a stop above today's high.

You don't need me to tell you how choppy last week was. The market traded in a well defined sideways range. While I was impressed that it didn't break down given some of the weak opens the action still seems bearish to me. Something deeply oversold that just goes sideways doesn't instill much confidencin me that the bulls have much power.

We had a ton of layoff announcements this morning -- about 40,000 jobs across a handful of companies -- yet the futures actually climbed from earlier in the session. So the short term reaction is that those are cost cuts for the companies. In the longer term though, it's hard for me to imagine those cuts being very positive for the economy and consumer confidence. We do have a Fed decision this Wednesday but I can't imagine what they could do or say at this point to change things...

The rally got a little dicey this morning but the bulls were able to keep the pressure up into the afternoon session. So the market recouped the bulk of Tuesday's losses on slightly higher volume. We've now got the Nasdaq and S&P poised to breakout above their January downtrends. Let's see if the news flow will allow that breakout to happen.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) will probably be the stock of the day tomorrow. It was up about 9% after-hours on their earnings/guidance. My guess is that the bulls probably have two or three days of partying in AAPL before it hits the wall and is ripe for renewed selling...

Yesterday I said that the BKX was probably due for a dead-cat bounce and we got that today. BofA (BAC) helped out a lot with its 30% gain, yet that stock is still within a steep downtrend. Part of its gains were due to news of some insiders buying the stock. For the sake of those who bought for that reason I hope that these insiders have better timing/judgment than Wachovia's CEO did last year when he loaded up on their stock right before it tanked.

No changes

In the last recap I did before leaving in December I pointed out the huge gains the financials were enjoying then. But I also pointed out that they were still in clear downtrends and that the BKX had resistance in the high 40s. So I guess it's fitting that on my first day back the financials stunk up the joint. The BKX stalled around 45 in early January and has been sliding ever since. It took out its 2008 low last week and is now basically in free-fall.

It's no wonder that the banking index looks so bad when one looks at some individual banks. I'll use Bank of America (BAC) as an example. Here's a long term chart showing that its now about 90% off of its highs and down 64% just in January. Just like that it's back to 1991 levels! The bulls can only hope that the financials don't drag the rest of the market into the abyss...

I don't like to put much emphasis on technicals in the heart of earnings season but things are looking quite bearish for the indices. I see no technical reason to be long yet. An obvious scenario is for the November lows to be retested and for bulls to try to create a double bottom there.

The VIX is back in the stratosphere...

Everything is down again!

This was a disappointing day for the bulls from a technical standpoint. All three of the indices which I usually track fell back under their 50-day moving averages. They also gave back all of yesterday's enthusiastic, bank & financials fueled rally. The fact that today's selling came on decreasing volume is small consolation.

The bulls tried hard to support the S&P 500 at 850 but late day selling pushed it back below that highly watched level. This is looking like a classic retracement to the 50-day moving average before resuming the downtrend.

The S&P breaking its 50 DMA didn't really surprise me since it closed just a few points above that line. The Nasdaq's break of its 50 DMA was surprising to me given how it looked like it was ready for blastoff by gapping over it yesterday. I guess we can chalk yesterday's buying up as a one-day wonder.

A similar story for the small caps.

The financials are having a big impact on the day-to-day broader market moves. The XLF chart shows just how helter skelter they've been recently. The gaps in the underlying stocks have been insane. This is the kind of stuff that makes me glad that I don't hold stocks overnight anymore. The index sure seems drawn to last week's gap, which is also around the November closing low.

No changes

The indices were able to clear their 50-day moving averages yesterday. That's a pretty big deal for the bulls but at least one of those triumphs is being tested this morning. The S&P 500 should open close to its 50-day moving average and I expect a bull-bear battle to gain control of that line.

I don't have much to say different from what I said last night. The indices stayed within yesterday's ranges, making inside days. That shows a lack of conviction which I assume is due to the Fed decision tomorrow. We did get some strength after-hours on news of the so-called "bad bank" plan. BofA (BAC) was up 8% after-hours so the financials will be worth focusing on tomorrow. Many will be gapping right into resistance so they may be good fade opportunities...

No changes

The indices continued their range-bound trading today. The early strength gave way to selling mid-morning. I'm not sure whether to blame it on Obama's economic press conference or technicals -- the Nasdaq approaching its 50-day moving average and the indices hitting last week's range tops. I suspect we will have more of this range trading through Wednesday's Fed decision.

Three sessions ago I said "My guess is that the bulls probably have two or three days of partying in AAPL before it hits the wall and is ripe for renewed selling..." It's been three days and the stock seems to be stalling right at the 50-day moving average. If I was still swing trading I'd have an order set to short it under today's low with a stop above today's high.

You don't need me to tell you how choppy last week was. The market traded in a well defined sideways range. While I was impressed that it didn't break down given some of the weak opens the action still seems bearish to me. Something deeply oversold that just goes sideways doesn't instill much confidencin me that the bulls have much power.

We had a ton of layoff announcements this morning -- about 40,000 jobs across a handful of companies -- yet the futures actually climbed from earlier in the session. So the short term reaction is that those are cost cuts for the companies. In the longer term though, it's hard for me to imagine those cuts being very positive for the economy and consumer confidence. We do have a Fed decision this Wednesday but I can't imagine what they could do or say at this point to change things...

The rally got a little dicey this morning but the bulls were able to keep the pressure up into the afternoon session. So the market recouped the bulk of Tuesday's losses on slightly higher volume. We've now got the Nasdaq and S&P poised to breakout above their January downtrends. Let's see if the news flow will allow that breakout to happen.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) will probably be the stock of the day tomorrow. It was up about 9% after-hours on their earnings/guidance. My guess is that the bulls probably have two or three days of partying in AAPL before it hits the wall and is ripe for renewed selling...

Yesterday I said that the BKX was probably due for a dead-cat bounce and we got that today. BofA (BAC) helped out a lot with its 30% gain, yet that stock is still within a steep downtrend. Part of its gains were due to news of some insiders buying the stock. For the sake of those who bought for that reason I hope that these insiders have better timing/judgment than Wachovia's CEO did last year when he loaded up on their stock right before it tanked.

No changes

In the last recap I did before leaving in December I pointed out the huge gains the financials were enjoying then. But I also pointed out that they were still in clear downtrends and that the BKX had resistance in the high 40s. So I guess it's fitting that on my first day back the financials stunk up the joint. The BKX stalled around 45 in early January and has been sliding ever since. It took out its 2008 low last week and is now basically in free-fall.

It's no wonder that the banking index looks so bad when one looks at some individual banks. I'll use Bank of America (BAC) as an example. Here's a long term chart showing that its now about 90% off of its highs and down 64% just in January. Just like that it's back to 1991 levels! The bulls can only hope that the financials don't drag the rest of the market into the abyss...

I don't like to put much emphasis on technicals in the heart of earnings season but things are looking quite bearish for the indices. I see no technical reason to be long yet. An obvious scenario is for the November lows to be retested and for bulls to try to create a double bottom there.

The VIX is back in the stratosphere...

Everything is down again!

This was a disappointing day for the bulls from a technical standpoint. All three of the indices which I usually track fell back under their 50-day moving averages. They also gave back all of yesterday's enthusiastic, bank & financials fueled rally. The fact that today's selling came on decreasing volume is small consolation.

The bulls tried hard to support the S&P 500 at 850 but late day selling pushed it back below that highly watched level. This is looking like a classic retracement to the 50-day moving average before resuming the downtrend.

The S&P breaking its 50 DMA didn't really surprise me since it closed just a few points above that line. The Nasdaq's break of its 50 DMA was surprising to me given how it looked like it was ready for blastoff by gapping over it yesterday. I guess we can chalk yesterday's buying up as a one-day wonder.

A similar story for the small caps.

The financials are having a big impact on the day-to-day broader market moves. The XLF chart shows just how helter skelter they've been recently. The gaps in the underlying stocks have been insane. This is the kind of stuff that makes me glad that I don't hold stocks overnight anymore. The index sure seems drawn to last week's gap, which is also around the November closing low.

No changes

The indices were able to clear their 50-day moving averages yesterday. That's a pretty big deal for the bulls but at least one of those triumphs is being tested this morning. The S&P 500 should open close to its 50-day moving average and I expect a bull-bear battle to gain control of that line.

I don't have much to say different from what I said last night. The indices stayed within yesterday's ranges, making inside days. That shows a lack of conviction which I assume is due to the Fed decision tomorrow. We did get some strength after-hours on news of the so-called "bad bank" plan. BofA (BAC) was up 8% after-hours so the financials will be worth focusing on tomorrow. Many will be gapping right into resistance so they may be good fade opportunities...

No changes

The indices continued their range-bound trading today. The early strength gave way to selling mid-morning. I'm not sure whether to blame it on Obama's economic press conference or technicals -- the Nasdaq approaching its 50-day moving average and the indices hitting last week's range tops. I suspect we will have more of this range trading through Wednesday's Fed decision.

Three sessions ago I said "My guess is that the bulls probably have two or three days of partying in AAPL before it hits the wall and is ripe for renewed selling..." It's been three days and the stock seems to be stalling right at the 50-day moving average. If I was still swing trading I'd have an order set to short it under today's low with a stop above today's high.

You don't need me to tell you how choppy last week was. The market traded in a well defined sideways range. While I was impressed that it didn't break down given some of the weak opens the action still seems bearish to me. Something deeply oversold that just goes sideways doesn't instill much confidencin me that the bulls have much power.

We had a ton of layoff announcements this morning -- about 40,000 jobs across a handful of companies -- yet the futures actually climbed from earlier in the session. So the short term reaction is that those are cost cuts for the companies. In the longer term though, it's hard for me to imagine those cuts being very positive for the economy and consumer confidence. We do have a Fed decision this Wednesday but I can't imagine what they could do or say at this point to change things...

The rally got a little dicey this morning but the bulls were able to keep the pressure up into the afternoon session. So the market recouped the bulk of Tuesday's losses on slightly higher volume. We've now got the Nasdaq and S&P poised to breakout above their January downtrends. Let's see if the news flow will allow that breakout to happen.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) will probably be the stock of the day tomorrow. It was up about 9% after-hours on their earnings/guidance. My guess is that the bulls probably have two or three days of partying in AAPL before it hits the wall and is ripe for renewed selling...

Yesterday I said that the BKX was probably due for a dead-cat bounce and we got that today. BofA (BAC) helped out a lot with its 30% gain, yet that stock is still within a steep downtrend. Part of its gains were due to news of some insiders buying the stock. For the sake of those who bought for that reason I hope that these insiders have better timing/judgment than Wachovia's CEO did last year when he loaded up on their stock right before it tanked.

No changes

In the last recap I did before leaving in December I pointed out the huge gains the financials were enjoying then. But I also pointed out that they were still in clear downtrends and that the BKX had resistance in the high 40s. So I guess it's fitting that on my first day back the financials stunk up the joint. The BKX stalled around 45 in early January and has been sliding ever since. It took out its 2008 low last week and is now basically in free-fall.

It's no wonder that the banking index looks so bad when one looks at some individual banks. I'll use Bank of America (BAC) as an example. Here's a long term chart showing that its now about 90% off of its highs and down 64% just in January. Just like that it's back to 1991 levels! The bulls can only hope that the financials don't drag the rest of the market into the abyss...

I don't like to put much emphasis on technicals in the heart of earnings season but things are looking quite bearish for the indices. I see no technical reason to be long yet. An obvious scenario is for the November lows to be retested and for bulls to try to create a double bottom there.

The VIX is back in the stratosphere...

Everything is down again!

This was a disappointing day for the bulls from a technical standpoint. All three of the indices which I usually track fell back under their 50-day moving averages. They also gave back all of yesterday's enthusiastic, bank & financials fueled rally. The fact that today's selling came on decreasing volume is small consolation.

The bulls tried hard to support the S&P 500 at 850 but late day selling pushed it back below that highly watched level. This is looking like a classic retracement to the 50-day moving average before resuming the downtrend.

The S&P breaking its 50 DMA didn't really surprise me since it closed just a few points above that line. The Nasdaq's break of its 50 DMA was surprising to me given how it looked like it was ready for blastoff by gapping over it yesterday. I guess we can chalk yesterday's buying up as a one-day wonder.

A similar story for the small caps.

The financials are having a big impact on the day-to-day broader market moves. The XLF chart shows just how helter skelter they've been recently. The gaps in the underlying stocks have been insane. This is the kind of stuff that makes me glad that I don't hold stocks overnight anymore. The index sure seems drawn to last week's gap, which is also around the November closing low.

No changes

The indices were able to clear their 50-day moving averages yesterday. That's a pretty big deal for the bulls but at least one of those triumphs is being tested this morning. The S&P 500 should open close to its 50-day moving average and I expect a bull-bear battle to gain control of that line.

I don't have much to say different from what I said last night. The indices stayed within yesterday's ranges, making inside days. That shows a lack of conviction which I assume is due to the Fed decision tomorrow. We did get some strength after-hours on news of the so-called "bad bank" plan. BofA (BAC) was up 8% after-hours so the financials will be worth focusing on tomorrow. Many will be gapping right into resistance so they may be good fade opportunities...

No changes

The indices continued their range-bound trading today. The early strength gave way to selling mid-morning. I'm not sure whether to blame it on Obama's economic press conference or technicals -- the Nasdaq approaching its 50-day moving average and the indices hitting last week's range tops. I suspect we will have more of this range trading through Wednesday's Fed decision.

Three sessions ago I said "My guess is that the bulls probably have two or three days of partying in AAPL before it hits the wall and is ripe for renewed selling..." It's been three days and the stock seems to be stalling right at the 50-day moving average. If I was still swing trading I'd have an order set to short it under today's low with a stop above today's high.

You don't need me to tell you how choppy last week was. The market traded in a well defined sideways range. While I was impressed that it didn't break down given some of the weak opens the action still seems bearish to me. Something deeply oversold that just goes sideways doesn't instill much confidencin me that the bulls have much power.

We had a ton of layoff announcements this morning -- about 40,000 jobs across a handful of companies -- yet the futures actually climbed from earlier in the session. So the short term reaction is that those are cost cuts for the companies. In the longer term though, it's hard for me to imagine those cuts being very positive for the economy and consumer confidence. We do have a Fed decision this Wednesday but I can't imagine what they could do or say at this point to change things...

The rally got a little dicey this morning but the bulls were able to keep the pressure up into the afternoon session. So the market recouped the bulk of Tuesday's losses on slightly higher volume. We've now got the Nasdaq and S&P poised to breakout above their January downtrends. Let's see if the news flow will allow that breakout to happen.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) will probably be the stock of the day tomorrow. It was up about 9% after-hours on their earnings/guidance. My guess is that the bulls probably have two or three days of partying in AAPL before it hits the wall and is ripe for renewed selling...

Yesterday I said that the BKX was probably due for a dead-cat bounce and we got that today. BofA (BAC) helped out a lot with its 30% gain, yet that stock is still within a steep downtrend. Part of its gains were due to news of some insiders buying the stock. For the sake of those who bought for that reason I hope that these insiders have better timing/judgment than Wachovia's CEO did last year when he loaded up on their stock right before it tanked.

No changes

In the last recap I did before leaving in December I pointed out the huge gains the financials were enjoying then. But I also pointed out that they were still in clear downtrends and that the BKX had resistance in the high 40s. So I guess it's fitting that on my first day back the financials stunk up the joint. The BKX stalled around 45 in early January and has been sliding ever since. It took out its 2008 low last week and is now basically in free-fall.

It's no wonder that the banking index looks so bad when one looks at some individual banks. I'll use Bank of America (BAC) as an example. Here's a long term chart showing that its now about 90% off of its highs and down 64% just in January. Just like that it's back to 1991 levels! The bulls can only hope that the financials don't drag the rest of the market into the abyss...

I don't like to put much emphasis on technicals in the heart of earnings season but things are looking quite bearish for the indices. I see no technical reason to be long yet. An obvious scenario is for the November lows to be retested and for bulls to try to create a double bottom there.

The VIX is back in the stratosphere...

Everything is down again!

This was a disappointing day for the bulls from a technical standpoint. All three of the indices which I usually track fell back under their 50-day moving averages. They also gave back all of yesterday's enthusiastic, bank & financials fueled rally. The fact that today's selling came on decreasing volume is small consolation.

The bulls tried hard to support the S&P 500 at 850 but late day selling pushed it back below that highly watched level. This is looking like a classic retracement to the 50-day moving average before resuming the downtrend.

The S&P breaking its 50 DMA didn't really surprise me since it closed just a few points above that line. The Nasdaq's break of its 50 DMA was surprising to me given how it looked like it was ready for blastoff by gapping over it yesterday. I guess we can chalk yesterday's buying up as a one-day wonder.

A similar story for the small caps.

The financials are having a big impact on the day-to-day broader market moves. The XLF chart shows just how helter skelter they've been recently. The gaps in the underlying stocks have been insane. This is the kind of stuff that makes me glad that I don't hold stocks overnight anymore. The index sure seems drawn to last week's gap, which is also around the November closing low.

No changes

The indices were able to clear their 50-day moving averages yesterday. That's a pretty big deal for the bulls but at least one of those triumphs is being tested this morning. The S&P 500 should open close to its 50-day moving average and I expect a bull-bear battle to gain control of that line.

I don't have much to say different from what I said last night. The indices stayed within yesterday's ranges, making inside days. That shows a lack of conviction which I assume is due to the Fed decision tomorrow. We did get some strength after-hours on news of the so-called "bad bank" plan. BofA (BAC) was up 8% after-hours so the financials will be worth focusing on tomorrow. Many will be gapping right into resistance so they may be good fade opportunities...

No changes

The indices continued their range-bound trading today. The early strength gave way to selling mid-morning. I'm not sure whether to blame it on Obama's economic press conference or technicals -- the Nasdaq approaching its 50-day moving average and the indices hitting last week's range tops. I suspect we will have more of this range trading through Wednesday's Fed decision.

Three sessions ago I said "My guess is that the bulls probably have two or three days of partying in AAPL before it hits the wall and is ripe for renewed selling..." It's been three days and the stock seems to be stalling right at the 50-day moving average. If I was still swing trading I'd have an order set to short it under today's low with a stop above today's high.

You don't need me to tell you how choppy last week was. The market traded in a well defined sideways range. While I was impressed that it didn't break down given some of the weak opens the action still seems bearish to me. Something deeply oversold that just goes sideways doesn't instill much confidencin me that the bulls have much power.

We had a ton of layoff announcements this morning -- about 40,000 jobs across a handful of companies -- yet the futures actually climbed from earlier in the session. So the short term reaction is that those are cost cuts for the companies. In the longer term though, it's hard for me to imagine those cuts being very positive for the economy and consumer confidence. We do have a Fed decision this Wednesday but I can't imagine what they could do or say at this point to change things...

The rally got a little dicey this morning but the bulls were able to keep the pressure up into the afternoon session. So the market recouped the bulk of Tuesday's losses on slightly higher volume. We've now got the Nasdaq and S&P poised to breakout above their January downtrends. Let's see if the news flow will allow that breakout to happen.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) will probably be the stock of the day tomorrow. It was up about 9% after-hours on their earnings/guidance. My guess is that the bulls probably have two or three days of partying in AAPL before it hits the wall and is ripe for renewed selling...

Yesterday I said that the BKX was probably due for a dead-cat bounce and we got that today. BofA (BAC) helped out a lot with its 30% gain, yet that stock is still within a steep downtrend. Part of its gains were due to news of some insiders buying the stock. For the sake of those who bought for that reason I hope that these insiders have better timing/judgment than Wachovia's CEO did last year when he loaded up on their stock right before it tanked.

No changes

In the last recap I did before leaving in December I pointed out the huge gains the financials were enjoying then. But I also pointed out that they were still in clear downtrends and that the BKX had resistance in the high 40s. So I guess it's fitting that on my first day back the financials stunk up the joint. The BKX stalled around 45 in early January and has been sliding ever since. It took out its 2008 low last week and is now basically in free-fall.

It's no wonder that the banking index looks so bad when one looks at some individual banks. I'll use Bank of America (BAC) as an example. Here's a long term chart showing that its now about 90% off of its highs and down 64% just in January. Just like that it's back to 1991 levels! The bulls can only hope that the financials don't drag the rest of the market into the abyss...

I don't like to put much emphasis on technicals in the heart of earnings season but things are looking quite bearish for the indices. I see no technical reason to be long yet. An obvious scenario is for the November lows to be retested and for bulls to try to create a double bottom there.

The VIX is back in the stratosphere...

Everything is down again!

This was a disappointing day for the bulls from a technical standpoint. All three of the indices which I usually track fell back under their 50-day moving averages. They also gave back all of yesterday's enthusiastic, bank & financials fueled rally. The fact that today's selling came on decreasing volume is small consolation.

The bulls tried hard to support the S&P 500 at 850 but late day selling pushed it back below that highly watched level. This is looking like a classic retracement to the 50-day moving average before resuming the downtrend.

The S&P breaking its 50 DMA didn't really surprise me since it closed just a few points above that line. The Nasdaq's break of its 50 DMA was surprising to me given how it looked like it was ready for blastoff by gapping over it yesterday. I guess we can chalk yesterday's buying up as a one-day wonder.

A similar story for the small caps.

The financials are having a big impact on the day-to-day broader market moves. The XLF chart shows just how helter skelter they've been recently. The gaps in the underlying stocks have been insane. This is the kind of stuff that makes me glad that I don't hold stocks overnight anymore. The index sure seems drawn to last week's gap, which is also around the November closing low.

No changes

The indices were able to clear their 50-day moving averages yesterday. That's a pretty big deal for the bulls but at least one of those triumphs is being tested this morning. The S&P 500 should open close to its 50-day moving average and I expect a bull-bear battle to gain control of that line.

I don't have much to say different from what I said last night. The indices stayed within yesterday's ranges, making inside days. That shows a lack of conviction which I assume is due to the Fed decision tomorrow. We did get some strength after-hours on news of the so-called "bad bank" plan. BofA (BAC) was up 8% after-hours so the financials will be worth focusing on tomorrow. Many will be gapping right into resistance so they may be good fade opportunities...

No changes

The indices continued their range-bound trading today. The early strength gave way to selling mid-morning. I'm not sure whether to blame it on Obama's economic press conference or technicals -- the Nasdaq approaching its 50-day moving average and the indices hitting last week's range tops. I suspect we will have more of this range trading through Wednesday's Fed decision.

Three sessions ago I said "My guess is that the bulls probably have two or three days of partying in AAPL before it hits the wall and is ripe for renewed selling..." It's been three days and the stock seems to be stalling right at the 50-day moving average. If I was still swing trading I'd have an order set to short it under today's low with a stop above today's high.

You don't need me to tell you how choppy last week was. The market traded in a well defined sideways range. While I was impressed that it didn't break down given some of the weak opens the action still seems bearish to me. Something deeply oversold that just goes sideways doesn't instill much confidencin me that the bulls have much power.

We had a ton of layoff announcements this morning -- about 40,000 jobs across a handful of companies -- yet the futures actually climbed from earlier in the session. So the short term reaction is that those are cost cuts for the companies. In the longer term though, it's hard for me to imagine those cuts being very positive for the economy and consumer confidence. We do have a Fed decision this Wednesday but I can't imagine what they could do or say at this point to change things...

The rally got a little dicey this morning but the bulls were able to keep the pressure up into the afternoon session. So the market recouped the bulk of Tuesday's losses on slightly higher volume. We've now got the Nasdaq and S&P poised to breakout above their January downtrends. Let's see if the news flow will allow that breakout to happen.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) will probably be the stock of the day tomorrow. It was up about 9% after-hours on their earnings/guidance. My guess is that the bulls probably have two or three days of partying in AAPL before it hits the wall and is ripe for renewed selling...

Yesterday I said that the BKX was probably due for a dead-cat bounce and we got that today. BofA (BAC) helped out a lot with its 30% gain, yet that stock is still within a steep downtrend. Part of its gains were due to news of some insiders buying the stock. For the sake of those who bought for that reason I hope that these insiders have better timing/judgment than Wachovia's CEO did last year when he loaded up on their stock right before it tanked.

No changes

In the last recap I did before leaving in December I pointed out the huge gains the financials were enjoying then. But I also pointed out that they were still in clear downtrends and that the BKX had resistance in the high 40s. So I guess it's fitting that on my first day back the financials stunk up the joint. The BKX stalled around 45 in early January and has been sliding ever since. It took out its 2008 low last week and is now basically in free-fall.

It's no wonder that the banking index looks so bad when one looks at some individual banks. I'll use Bank of America (BAC) as an example. Here's a long term chart showing that its now about 90% off of its highs and down 64% just in January. Just like that it's back to 1991 levels! The bulls can only hope that the financials don't drag the rest of the market into the abyss...

I don't like to put much emphasis on technicals in the heart of earnings season but things are looking quite bearish for the indices. I see no technical reason to be long yet. An obvious scenario is for the November lows to be retested and for bulls to try to create a double bottom there.

The VIX is back in the stratosphere...

Everything is down again!

This was a disappointing day for the bulls from a technical standpoint. All three of the indices which I usually track fell back under their 50-day moving averages. They also gave back all of yesterday's enthusiastic, bank & financials fueled rally. The fact that today's selling came on decreasing volume is small consolation.

The bulls tried hard to support the S&P 500 at 850 but late day selling pushed it back below that highly watched level. This is looking like a classic retracement to the 50-day moving average before resuming the downtrend.

The S&P breaking its 50 DMA didn't really surprise me since it closed just a few points above that line. The Nasdaq's break of its 50 DMA was surprising to me given how it looked like it was ready for blastoff by gapping over it yesterday. I guess we can chalk yesterday's buying up as a one-day wonder.

A similar story for the small caps.

The financials are having a big impact on the day-to-day broader market moves. The XLF chart shows just how helter skelter they've been recently. The gaps in the underlying stocks have been insane. This is the kind of stuff that makes me glad that I don't hold stocks overnight anymore. The index sure seems drawn to last week's gap, which is also around the November closing low.

No changes

The indices were able to clear their 50-day moving averages yesterday. That's a pretty big deal for the bulls but at least one of those triumphs is being tested this morning. The S&P 500 should open close to its 50-day moving average and I expect a bull-bear battle to gain control of that line.

I don't have much to say different from what I said last night. The indices stayed within yesterday's ranges, making inside days. That shows a lack of conviction which I assume is due to the Fed decision tomorrow. We did get some strength after-hours on news of the so-called "bad bank" plan. BofA (BAC) was up 8% after-hours so the financials will be worth focusing on tomorrow. Many will be gapping right into resistance so they may be good fade opportunities...

No changes

The indices continued their range-bound trading today. The early strength gave way to selling mid-morning. I'm not sure whether to blame it on Obama's economic press conference or technicals -- the Nasdaq approaching its 50-day moving average and the indices hitting last week's range tops. I suspect we will have more of this range trading through Wednesday's Fed decision.

Three sessions ago I said "My guess is that the bulls probably have two or three days of partying in AAPL before it hits the wall and is ripe for renewed selling..." It's been three days and the stock seems to be stalling right at the 50-day moving average. If I was still swing trading I'd have an order set to short it under today's low with a stop above today's high.

You don't need me to tell you how choppy last week was. The market traded in a well defined sideways range. While I was impressed that it didn't break down given some of the weak opens the action still seems bearish to me. Something deeply oversold that just goes sideways doesn't instill much confidencin me that the bulls have much power.

We had a ton of layoff announcements this morning -- about 40,000 jobs across a handful of companies -- yet the futures actually climbed from earlier in the session. So the short term reaction is that those are cost cuts for the companies. In the longer term though, it's hard for me to imagine those cuts being very positive for the economy and consumer confidence. We do have a Fed decision this Wednesday but I can't imagine what they could do or say at this point to change things...

The rally got a little dicey this morning but the bulls were able to keep the pressure up into the afternoon session. So the market recouped the bulk of Tuesday's losses on slightly higher volume. We've now got the Nasdaq and S&P poised to breakout above their January downtrends. Let's see if the news flow will allow that breakout to happen.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) will probably be the stock of the day tomorrow. It was up about 9% after-hours on their earnings/guidance. My guess is that the bulls probably have two or three days of partying in AAPL before it hits the wall and is ripe for renewed selling...

Yesterday I said that the BKX was probably due for a dead-cat bounce and we got that today. BofA (BAC) helped out a lot with its 30% gain, yet that stock is still within a steep downtrend. Part of its gains were due to news of some insiders buying the stock. For the sake of those who bought for that reason I hope that these insiders have better timing/judgment than Wachovia's CEO did last year when he loaded up on their stock right before it tanked.

No changes

In the last recap I did before leaving in December I pointed out the huge gains the financials were enjoying then. But I also pointed out that they were still in clear downtrends and that the BKX had resistance in the high 40s. So I guess it's fitting that on my first day back the financials stunk up the joint. The BKX stalled around 45 in early January and has been sliding ever since. It took out its 2008 low last week and is now basically in free-fall.

It's no wonder that the banking index looks so bad when one looks at some individual banks. I'll use Bank of America (BAC) as an example. Here's a long term chart showing that its now about 90% off of its highs and down 64% just in January. Just like that it's back to 1991 levels! The bulls can only hope that the financials don't drag the rest of the market into the abyss...

I don't like to put much emphasis on technicals in the heart of earnings season but things are looking quite bearish for the indices. I see no technical reason to be long yet. An obvious scenario is for the November lows to be retested and for bulls to try to create a double bottom there.

The VIX is back in the stratosphere...

Everything is down again!