It was another good week for the bulls. Despite the various overbought indicators the sellers just can't seem to do any serious damage. Many people, myself included, thought that Friday's jobs report would provide the fuel for a significant move in either direction but that wasn't the case.
The S&P 500 actually lost a little ground since Monday's close but it's still holding on to the bulk of Monday's gains. Volume was below average all week, which makes me a little skeptical about the index's ability to stay above the May highs. For now it seems to be trapped between the May high and the January intraday high of 944. Sellers are trying hard to defend that January high and a strong move through 944 could create a nice squeeze.
The Nasdaq was able to build on Monday's rally and walked the upper Bollinger band to higher highs throughout the week.
The small caps were also able to make higher highs later in the week. It's short-term overbought so I wouldn't be looking to initiate positions here but instead at one of the support lines in the chart.
I'm still hesitant to flip the S&P's long-term trend to up. If it can move another 1% above the 200 DMA I'll do it.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Term | Up | Lat | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Up | Up | Up |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
It is a dilemma for swing traders. If we go long here, we are afraid of a deep pull-back due to the overbought market. If we short it, there are no signs of weakness. So I think I will stick to day trading for now.
Agree keep it for a short time. But the maket sentiment seems bearish. Repaying TRAP I thought was going to be a big think today. But nothing really happen today.
The banks could be going down from here
I agree with Trader Mom. Seems like it this way for the past week and a half.
I guess market is more bearish from here and we may see going sideways before going south.Surprised to see Mike's short term trend table show's as "UP"
Note the definitions used for the trend table -- and that I haven't updated it since last week. But even as I type this the indices are still (barely) above their 10-day moving averages.
Thanks Mike for the update
Mike,
please udate the trend table often as I come to this site everyday looking for your "advice".
Thanks
Love your sight.