September 2009 Archives

I'm surprised that the market still reacts to consumer confidence numbers. People always say that they don't' translate into actual consumer behavior, yet the market always gets some kind of reaction based on them, even if they're just knee-jerk reactions. That's what happened today. The numbers put a damper on the early strength. Things actually looked pretty bad for about 15 minutes, then calmer heads prevailed. But by then the damage was done and the early highs were not approached again. The result was a little bit of give-back on Monday's gains. I'm sure the bulls will take that, especially given Monday's light volume. However, I really want to keep an eye on today's highs. There's a danger that we just made the first in a series of lower highs. If we can't make any progress on the quarter-end games tomorrow I'll really be skeptical of the rally continuing...

Minor downgrades to the short term trends...

I just saw this on the WSJ's Pictures of the Day blog and thought I'd share it. The caption on the photo reads: "The sculpture "What You see Might Not Be Real," by Chen Wenling, was displayed at a Beijing gallery Sunday. The artwork is a critique of the global financial crisis, with the bull representing Wall Street and the man pinned to the wall representing Bernard Madoff. (Ng Han Guan/Associated Press)" You can click the photo to see a larger version.

Oh, and speaking of Madoff, if you missed the 60 Minutes piece this weekend on the attempts to recover his assets, I've embedded the video below. To me, the most interesting aspect is that they're trying to do clawbacks on investors who were able to get out of the fund with a profit.

Watch CBS News Videos Online

I don't know if today's rally was due to it being a Merger Monday, month & quarter end markups or a technical bounce. It was probably a little of each. Today was a Jewish holiday though which explains why the volume was so light. That lack of volume is the sole weak spot in what otherwise looked like a very good day for the bulls. But low volume or not, the trend table is showing nothing but "up" again after today's pop. There's potentially resistance at last Wednesday's highs, which is where the post-Fed selling kicked in. I expect some fireworks if & when the indices return to those levels. We could either have late bulls trying to sell to get out at break-even or shorts covering as the market threatens to make new highs.

All the trends are up once again...

Today we had our second down day in a row, which has been a rare thing of late. Early on it seem like it was going to be a really bad day but things stabilized after the first hour. I think a lot of people were focused on S&P 1050 (I think that was some analyst's year-end target). It teetered around that level for most of the day and closed just above it. So to me it still felt like just a normal retracement in a larger uptrend.

Tomorrow should be a good test of the bulls' resolve though. With RIMM stinking up the joint post-earnings it will be interesting to see how much its weakness leeches out into other stocks. Will it cause a mad scramble out of tech or will all the alleged sidelined money come rushing in to find bargains? I think volume will be key tomorrow, especially since it's a Friday. A distribution day would be a really bad way to end the week.

Downgrades to all the short-term trends today...

I apologize for the lack of updates over the last week. I just couldn't bring myself to say the same thing day after day as the market just kept drifting higher. I also wanted to let the Fed decision pass, so that the "wait on the Fed" game could come to an end. So now that the Fed decision/statement is out of the way things are looking a little more interesting. The post-Fed selloff today could be the beginning of a long-awaited pullback but it's too early to know for sure. There's still PLENTY of support out there and the indices are still in uptrends on just about any significant time frame. As has been the case all summer, the bears need to create some follow-through and start to make some lower lows to make me think this is anything more than a normal retracement in an uptrend.

Oil's getting interesting here. If it can break the September lows there's not much support above the July lows around $60.

It's not hard to find many charts that look like Google (GOOG) right now. This one really stood out to me because of that shooting star which printed right at the round umber of $500. With overbought stochastic to boot, I'd be all over this as a swing short if I was still swing trading.

One slight downgrade today.

The trend table says it all about the current environment. The short-term trends aligned with the longer term trends by switched back to "up" about 7 sessions ago. Since then (actually 2 days before that) the market has simply refused to go down for longer than a blink of an eye. Sure the market is short-term overbought -- even Art Cashin has been doing nothing but talking about that fact and how "eerie" the market is -- but trying to pick a top here has been treacherous. It's tough to buck the trend here and it's tough to jump on board if you're not already. We've also got to keep in mind that this is expiration week, so we may see some pinning as we head toward Friday.

No changes

A week ago I wrote about the nice technical setup for the bulls. The indices were short-term oversold and were trying to bounce at a point that would make a higher-low. Well that bounce was successful enough to propel the indices to new 11-month highs today. The indices are now in short-term overbought territory and bumping up against the tops of some trend channels (the channel is much clearer on the Nasdaq). I wouldn't be a seller here but I'd prefer to be a buyer closer to the bottoms of those channels. I think this is "hold 'em if you've got 'em" territory.

All the short term trends flipped back to "up" a couple of days ago...

So here we are once again at an interesting technical juncture just in time for a payroll report. The market has found its footing since Monday's selloff and looks poised for a technical bounce. The Nasdaq and S&P have held safely above their August lows and have finally reached oversold short-term stochastic readings. It's a nice technical setup for the bulls but we'll have to see the if tomorrow morning's jobs data can provide a spark. On the flip side, I think that breaks of the trendlines connecting the indices' August and September lows (or more simply, new September lows) would embolden the bears.

No changes

Things got really interesting today. The indices sold off about 2% in the face of decent economic numbers. Even worse, they ended about 3% lower from where they were when those economic reports were released at 10:00. Apparently we're back in an environment of worrying about beating whisper numbers. Word is that today's numbers failed to do so and that's why we rolled over. The sharp reversal came on some of the highest volume of the summer, so that kind of distribution has to concern the bulls. The technical damage doesn't end there -- the Nasdaq broke its March uptrend today. That may not be such a big deal though, this could just be more fanning out of the March rally. The Nasdaq will need to make a higher high to continue the fanning though.

The rest of the week should be quite telling. Do bulls lock in gains ahead of the long weekend or does some of that alleged sidelined money come rushing in to provide support. Also, there's still the looming payroll report on Friday.

Some more downgrades to the short-term trends...

I'm surprised that the market still reacts to consumer confidence numbers. People always say that they don't' translate into actual consumer behavior, yet the market always gets some kind of reaction based on them, even if they're just knee-jerk reactions. That's what happened today. The numbers put a damper on the early strength. Things actually looked pretty bad for about 15 minutes, then calmer heads prevailed. But by then the damage was done and the early highs were not approached again. The result was a little bit of give-back on Monday's gains. I'm sure the bulls will take that, especially given Monday's light volume. However, I really want to keep an eye on today's highs. There's a danger that we just made the first in a series of lower highs. If we can't make any progress on the quarter-end games tomorrow I'll really be skeptical of the rally continuing...

Minor downgrades to the short term trends...

I just saw this on the WSJ's Pictures of the Day blog and thought I'd share it. The caption on the photo reads: "The sculpture "What You see Might Not Be Real," by Chen Wenling, was displayed at a Beijing gallery Sunday. The artwork is a critique of the global financial crisis, with the bull representing Wall Street and the man pinned to the wall representing Bernard Madoff. (Ng Han Guan/Associated Press)" You can click the photo to see a larger version.

Oh, and speaking of Madoff, if you missed the 60 Minutes piece this weekend on the attempts to recover his assets, I've embedded the video below. To me, the most interesting aspect is that they're trying to do clawbacks on investors who were able to get out of the fund with a profit.

Watch CBS News Videos Online

I don't know if today's rally was due to it being a Merger Monday, month & quarter end markups or a technical bounce. It was probably a little of each. Today was a Jewish holiday though which explains why the volume was so light. That lack of volume is the sole weak spot in what otherwise looked like a very good day for the bulls. But low volume or not, the trend table is showing nothing but "up" again after today's pop. There's potentially resistance at last Wednesday's highs, which is where the post-Fed selling kicked in. I expect some fireworks if & when the indices return to those levels. We could either have late bulls trying to sell to get out at break-even or shorts covering as the market threatens to make new highs.

All the trends are up once again...

Today we had our second down day in a row, which has been a rare thing of late. Early on it seem like it was going to be a really bad day but things stabilized after the first hour. I think a lot of people were focused on S&P 1050 (I think that was some analyst's year-end target). It teetered around that level for most of the day and closed just above it. So to me it still felt like just a normal retracement in a larger uptrend.

Tomorrow should be a good test of the bulls' resolve though. With RIMM stinking up the joint post-earnings it will be interesting to see how much its weakness leeches out into other stocks. Will it cause a mad scramble out of tech or will all the alleged sidelined money come rushing in to find bargains? I think volume will be key tomorrow, especially since it's a Friday. A distribution day would be a really bad way to end the week.

Downgrades to all the short-term trends today...

I apologize for the lack of updates over the last week. I just couldn't bring myself to say the same thing day after day as the market just kept drifting higher. I also wanted to let the Fed decision pass, so that the "wait on the Fed" game could come to an end. So now that the Fed decision/statement is out of the way things are looking a little more interesting. The post-Fed selloff today could be the beginning of a long-awaited pullback but it's too early to know for sure. There's still PLENTY of support out there and the indices are still in uptrends on just about any significant time frame. As has been the case all summer, the bears need to create some follow-through and start to make some lower lows to make me think this is anything more than a normal retracement in an uptrend.

Oil's getting interesting here. If it can break the September lows there's not much support above the July lows around $60.

It's not hard to find many charts that look like Google (GOOG) right now. This one really stood out to me because of that shooting star which printed right at the round umber of $500. With overbought stochastic to boot, I'd be all over this as a swing short if I was still swing trading.

One slight downgrade today.

The trend table says it all about the current environment. The short-term trends aligned with the longer term trends by switched back to "up" about 7 sessions ago. Since then (actually 2 days before that) the market has simply refused to go down for longer than a blink of an eye. Sure the market is short-term overbought -- even Art Cashin has been doing nothing but talking about that fact and how "eerie" the market is -- but trying to pick a top here has been treacherous. It's tough to buck the trend here and it's tough to jump on board if you're not already. We've also got to keep in mind that this is expiration week, so we may see some pinning as we head toward Friday.

No changes

A week ago I wrote about the nice technical setup for the bulls. The indices were short-term oversold and were trying to bounce at a point that would make a higher-low. Well that bounce was successful enough to propel the indices to new 11-month highs today. The indices are now in short-term overbought territory and bumping up against the tops of some trend channels (the channel is much clearer on the Nasdaq). I wouldn't be a seller here but I'd prefer to be a buyer closer to the bottoms of those channels. I think this is "hold 'em if you've got 'em" territory.

All the short term trends flipped back to "up" a couple of days ago...

So here we are once again at an interesting technical juncture just in time for a payroll report. The market has found its footing since Monday's selloff and looks poised for a technical bounce. The Nasdaq and S&P have held safely above their August lows and have finally reached oversold short-term stochastic readings. It's a nice technical setup for the bulls but we'll have to see the if tomorrow morning's jobs data can provide a spark. On the flip side, I think that breaks of the trendlines connecting the indices' August and September lows (or more simply, new September lows) would embolden the bears.

No changes

Things got really interesting today. The indices sold off about 2% in the face of decent economic numbers. Even worse, they ended about 3% lower from where they were when those economic reports were released at 10:00. Apparently we're back in an environment of worrying about beating whisper numbers. Word is that today's numbers failed to do so and that's why we rolled over. The sharp reversal came on some of the highest volume of the summer, so that kind of distribution has to concern the bulls. The technical damage doesn't end there -- the Nasdaq broke its March uptrend today. That may not be such a big deal though, this could just be more fanning out of the March rally. The Nasdaq will need to make a higher high to continue the fanning though.

The rest of the week should be quite telling. Do bulls lock in gains ahead of the long weekend or does some of that alleged sidelined money come rushing in to provide support. Also, there's still the looming payroll report on Friday.

Some more downgrades to the short-term trends...

I'm surprised that the market still reacts to consumer confidence numbers. People always say that they don't' translate into actual consumer behavior, yet the market always gets some kind of reaction based on them, even if they're just knee-jerk reactions. That's what happened today. The numbers put a damper on the early strength. Things actually looked pretty bad for about 15 minutes, then calmer heads prevailed. But by then the damage was done and the early highs were not approached again. The result was a little bit of give-back on Monday's gains. I'm sure the bulls will take that, especially given Monday's light volume. However, I really want to keep an eye on today's highs. There's a danger that we just made the first in a series of lower highs. If we can't make any progress on the quarter-end games tomorrow I'll really be skeptical of the rally continuing...

Minor downgrades to the short term trends...

I just saw this on the WSJ's Pictures of the Day blog and thought I'd share it. The caption on the photo reads: "The sculpture "What You see Might Not Be Real," by Chen Wenling, was displayed at a Beijing gallery Sunday. The artwork is a critique of the global financial crisis, with the bull representing Wall Street and the man pinned to the wall representing Bernard Madoff. (Ng Han Guan/Associated Press)" You can click the photo to see a larger version.

Oh, and speaking of Madoff, if you missed the 60 Minutes piece this weekend on the attempts to recover his assets, I've embedded the video below. To me, the most interesting aspect is that they're trying to do clawbacks on investors who were able to get out of the fund with a profit.

Watch CBS News Videos Online

I don't know if today's rally was due to it being a Merger Monday, month & quarter end markups or a technical bounce. It was probably a little of each. Today was a Jewish holiday though which explains why the volume was so light. That lack of volume is the sole weak spot in what otherwise looked like a very good day for the bulls. But low volume or not, the trend table is showing nothing but "up" again after today's pop. There's potentially resistance at last Wednesday's highs, which is where the post-Fed selling kicked in. I expect some fireworks if & when the indices return to those levels. We could either have late bulls trying to sell to get out at break-even or shorts covering as the market threatens to make new highs.

All the trends are up once again...

Today we had our second down day in a row, which has been a rare thing of late. Early on it seem like it was going to be a really bad day but things stabilized after the first hour. I think a lot of people were focused on S&P 1050 (I think that was some analyst's year-end target). It teetered around that level for most of the day and closed just above it. So to me it still felt like just a normal retracement in a larger uptrend.

Tomorrow should be a good test of the bulls' resolve though. With RIMM stinking up the joint post-earnings it will be interesting to see how much its weakness leeches out into other stocks. Will it cause a mad scramble out of tech or will all the alleged sidelined money come rushing in to find bargains? I think volume will be key tomorrow, especially since it's a Friday. A distribution day would be a really bad way to end the week.

Downgrades to all the short-term trends today...

I apologize for the lack of updates over the last week. I just couldn't bring myself to say the same thing day after day as the market just kept drifting higher. I also wanted to let the Fed decision pass, so that the "wait on the Fed" game could come to an end. So now that the Fed decision/statement is out of the way things are looking a little more interesting. The post-Fed selloff today could be the beginning of a long-awaited pullback but it's too early to know for sure. There's still PLENTY of support out there and the indices are still in uptrends on just about any significant time frame. As has been the case all summer, the bears need to create some follow-through and start to make some lower lows to make me think this is anything more than a normal retracement in an uptrend.

Oil's getting interesting here. If it can break the September lows there's not much support above the July lows around $60.

It's not hard to find many charts that look like Google (GOOG) right now. This one really stood out to me because of that shooting star which printed right at the round umber of $500. With overbought stochastic to boot, I'd be all over this as a swing short if I was still swing trading.

One slight downgrade today.

The trend table says it all about the current environment. The short-term trends aligned with the longer term trends by switched back to "up" about 7 sessions ago. Since then (actually 2 days before that) the market has simply refused to go down for longer than a blink of an eye. Sure the market is short-term overbought -- even Art Cashin has been doing nothing but talking about that fact and how "eerie" the market is -- but trying to pick a top here has been treacherous. It's tough to buck the trend here and it's tough to jump on board if you're not already. We've also got to keep in mind that this is expiration week, so we may see some pinning as we head toward Friday.

No changes

A week ago I wrote about the nice technical setup for the bulls. The indices were short-term oversold and were trying to bounce at a point that would make a higher-low. Well that bounce was successful enough to propel the indices to new 11-month highs today. The indices are now in short-term overbought territory and bumping up against the tops of some trend channels (the channel is much clearer on the Nasdaq). I wouldn't be a seller here but I'd prefer to be a buyer closer to the bottoms of those channels. I think this is "hold 'em if you've got 'em" territory.

All the short term trends flipped back to "up" a couple of days ago...

So here we are once again at an interesting technical juncture just in time for a payroll report. The market has found its footing since Monday's selloff and looks poised for a technical bounce. The Nasdaq and S&P have held safely above their August lows and have finally reached oversold short-term stochastic readings. It's a nice technical setup for the bulls but we'll have to see the if tomorrow morning's jobs data can provide a spark. On the flip side, I think that breaks of the trendlines connecting the indices' August and September lows (or more simply, new September lows) would embolden the bears.

No changes

Things got really interesting today. The indices sold off about 2% in the face of decent economic numbers. Even worse, they ended about 3% lower from where they were when those economic reports were released at 10:00. Apparently we're back in an environment of worrying about beating whisper numbers. Word is that today's numbers failed to do so and that's why we rolled over. The sharp reversal came on some of the highest volume of the summer, so that kind of distribution has to concern the bulls. The technical damage doesn't end there -- the Nasdaq broke its March uptrend today. That may not be such a big deal though, this could just be more fanning out of the March rally. The Nasdaq will need to make a higher high to continue the fanning though.

The rest of the week should be quite telling. Do bulls lock in gains ahead of the long weekend or does some of that alleged sidelined money come rushing in to provide support. Also, there's still the looming payroll report on Friday.

Some more downgrades to the short-term trends...

I'm surprised that the market still reacts to consumer confidence numbers. People always say that they don't' translate into actual consumer behavior, yet the market always gets some kind of reaction based on them, even if they're just knee-jerk reactions. That's what happened today. The numbers put a damper on the early strength. Things actually looked pretty bad for about 15 minutes, then calmer heads prevailed. But by then the damage was done and the early highs were not approached again. The result was a little bit of give-back on Monday's gains. I'm sure the bulls will take that, especially given Monday's light volume. However, I really want to keep an eye on today's highs. There's a danger that we just made the first in a series of lower highs. If we can't make any progress on the quarter-end games tomorrow I'll really be skeptical of the rally continuing...

Minor downgrades to the short term trends...

I just saw this on the WSJ's Pictures of the Day blog and thought I'd share it. The caption on the photo reads: "The sculpture "What You see Might Not Be Real," by Chen Wenling, was displayed at a Beijing gallery Sunday. The artwork is a critique of the global financial crisis, with the bull representing Wall Street and the man pinned to the wall representing Bernard Madoff. (Ng Han Guan/Associated Press)" You can click the photo to see a larger version.

Oh, and speaking of Madoff, if you missed the 60 Minutes piece this weekend on the attempts to recover his assets, I've embedded the video below. To me, the most interesting aspect is that they're trying to do clawbacks on investors who were able to get out of the fund with a profit.

Watch CBS News Videos Online

I don't know if today's rally was due to it being a Merger Monday, month & quarter end markups or a technical bounce. It was probably a little of each. Today was a Jewish holiday though which explains why the volume was so light. That lack of volume is the sole weak spot in what otherwise looked like a very good day for the bulls. But low volume or not, the trend table is showing nothing but "up" again after today's pop. There's potentially resistance at last Wednesday's highs, which is where the post-Fed selling kicked in. I expect some fireworks if & when the indices return to those levels. We could either have late bulls trying to sell to get out at break-even or shorts covering as the market threatens to make new highs.

All the trends are up once again...

Today we had our second down day in a row, which has been a rare thing of late. Early on it seem like it was going to be a really bad day but things stabilized after the first hour. I think a lot of people were focused on S&P 1050 (I think that was some analyst's year-end target). It teetered around that level for most of the day and closed just above it. So to me it still felt like just a normal retracement in a larger uptrend.

Tomorrow should be a good test of the bulls' resolve though. With RIMM stinking up the joint post-earnings it will be interesting to see how much its weakness leeches out into other stocks. Will it cause a mad scramble out of tech or will all the alleged sidelined money come rushing in to find bargains? I think volume will be key tomorrow, especially since it's a Friday. A distribution day would be a really bad way to end the week.

Downgrades to all the short-term trends today...

I apologize for the lack of updates over the last week. I just couldn't bring myself to say the same thing day after day as the market just kept drifting higher. I also wanted to let the Fed decision pass, so that the "wait on the Fed" game could come to an end. So now that the Fed decision/statement is out of the way things are looking a little more interesting. The post-Fed selloff today could be the beginning of a long-awaited pullback but it's too early to know for sure. There's still PLENTY of support out there and the indices are still in uptrends on just about any significant time frame. As has been the case all summer, the bears need to create some follow-through and start to make some lower lows to make me think this is anything more than a normal retracement in an uptrend.

Oil's getting interesting here. If it can break the September lows there's not much support above the July lows around $60.

It's not hard to find many charts that look like Google (GOOG) right now. This one really stood out to me because of that shooting star which printed right at the round umber of $500. With overbought stochastic to boot, I'd be all over this as a swing short if I was still swing trading.

One slight downgrade today.

The trend table says it all about the current environment. The short-term trends aligned with the longer term trends by switched back to "up" about 7 sessions ago. Since then (actually 2 days before that) the market has simply refused to go down for longer than a blink of an eye. Sure the market is short-term overbought -- even Art Cashin has been doing nothing but talking about that fact and how "eerie" the market is -- but trying to pick a top here has been treacherous. It's tough to buck the trend here and it's tough to jump on board if you're not already. We've also got to keep in mind that this is expiration week, so we may see some pinning as we head toward Friday.

No changes

A week ago I wrote about the nice technical setup for the bulls. The indices were short-term oversold and were trying to bounce at a point that would make a higher-low. Well that bounce was successful enough to propel the indices to new 11-month highs today. The indices are now in short-term overbought territory and bumping up against the tops of some trend channels (the channel is much clearer on the Nasdaq). I wouldn't be a seller here but I'd prefer to be a buyer closer to the bottoms of those channels. I think this is "hold 'em if you've got 'em" territory.

All the short term trends flipped back to "up" a couple of days ago...

So here we are once again at an interesting technical juncture just in time for a payroll report. The market has found its footing since Monday's selloff and looks poised for a technical bounce. The Nasdaq and S&P have held safely above their August lows and have finally reached oversold short-term stochastic readings. It's a nice technical setup for the bulls but we'll have to see the if tomorrow morning's jobs data can provide a spark. On the flip side, I think that breaks of the trendlines connecting the indices' August and September lows (or more simply, new September lows) would embolden the bears.

No changes

Things got really interesting today. The indices sold off about 2% in the face of decent economic numbers. Even worse, they ended about 3% lower from where they were when those economic reports were released at 10:00. Apparently we're back in an environment of worrying about beating whisper numbers. Word is that today's numbers failed to do so and that's why we rolled over. The sharp reversal came on some of the highest volume of the summer, so that kind of distribution has to concern the bulls. The technical damage doesn't end there -- the Nasdaq broke its March uptrend today. That may not be such a big deal though, this could just be more fanning out of the March rally. The Nasdaq will need to make a higher high to continue the fanning though.

The rest of the week should be quite telling. Do bulls lock in gains ahead of the long weekend or does some of that alleged sidelined money come rushing in to provide support. Also, there's still the looming payroll report on Friday.

Some more downgrades to the short-term trends...

I'm surprised that the market still reacts to consumer confidence numbers. People always say that they don't' translate into actual consumer behavior, yet the market always gets some kind of reaction based on them, even if they're just knee-jerk reactions. That's what happened today. The numbers put a damper on the early strength. Things actually looked pretty bad for about 15 minutes, then calmer heads prevailed. But by then the damage was done and the early highs were not approached again. The result was a little bit of give-back on Monday's gains. I'm sure the bulls will take that, especially given Monday's light volume. However, I really want to keep an eye on today's highs. There's a danger that we just made the first in a series of lower highs. If we can't make any progress on the quarter-end games tomorrow I'll really be skeptical of the rally continuing...

Minor downgrades to the short term trends...

I just saw this on the WSJ's Pictures of the Day blog and thought I'd share it. The caption on the photo reads: "The sculpture "What You see Might Not Be Real," by Chen Wenling, was displayed at a Beijing gallery Sunday. The artwork is a critique of the global financial crisis, with the bull representing Wall Street and the man pinned to the wall representing Bernard Madoff. (Ng Han Guan/Associated Press)" You can click the photo to see a larger version.

Oh, and speaking of Madoff, if you missed the 60 Minutes piece this weekend on the attempts to recover his assets, I've embedded the video below. To me, the most interesting aspect is that they're trying to do clawbacks on investors who were able to get out of the fund with a profit.

Watch CBS News Videos Online

I don't know if today's rally was due to it being a Merger Monday, month & quarter end markups or a technical bounce. It was probably a little of each. Today was a Jewish holiday though which explains why the volume was so light. That lack of volume is the sole weak spot in what otherwise looked like a very good day for the bulls. But low volume or not, the trend table is showing nothing but "up" again after today's pop. There's potentially resistance at last Wednesday's highs, which is where the post-Fed selling kicked in. I expect some fireworks if & when the indices return to those levels. We could either have late bulls trying to sell to get out at break-even or shorts covering as the market threatens to make new highs.

All the trends are up once again...

Today we had our second down day in a row, which has been a rare thing of late. Early on it seem like it was going to be a really bad day but things stabilized after the first hour. I think a lot of people were focused on S&P 1050 (I think that was some analyst's year-end target). It teetered around that level for most of the day and closed just above it. So to me it still felt like just a normal retracement in a larger uptrend.

Tomorrow should be a good test of the bulls' resolve though. With RIMM stinking up the joint post-earnings it will be interesting to see how much its weakness leeches out into other stocks. Will it cause a mad scramble out of tech or will all the alleged sidelined money come rushing in to find bargains? I think volume will be key tomorrow, especially since it's a Friday. A distribution day would be a really bad way to end the week.

Downgrades to all the short-term trends today...

I apologize for the lack of updates over the last week. I just couldn't bring myself to say the same thing day after day as the market just kept drifting higher. I also wanted to let the Fed decision pass, so that the "wait on the Fed" game could come to an end. So now that the Fed decision/statement is out of the way things are looking a little more interesting. The post-Fed selloff today could be the beginning of a long-awaited pullback but it's too early to know for sure. There's still PLENTY of support out there and the indices are still in uptrends on just about any significant time frame. As has been the case all summer, the bears need to create some follow-through and start to make some lower lows to make me think this is anything more than a normal retracement in an uptrend.

Oil's getting interesting here. If it can break the September lows there's not much support above the July lows around $60.

It's not hard to find many charts that look like Google (GOOG) right now. This one really stood out to me because of that shooting star which printed right at the round umber of $500. With overbought stochastic to boot, I'd be all over this as a swing short if I was still swing trading.

One slight downgrade today.

The trend table says it all about the current environment. The short-term trends aligned with the longer term trends by switched back to "up" about 7 sessions ago. Since then (actually 2 days before that) the market has simply refused to go down for longer than a blink of an eye. Sure the market is short-term overbought -- even Art Cashin has been doing nothing but talking about that fact and how "eerie" the market is -- but trying to pick a top here has been treacherous. It's tough to buck the trend here and it's tough to jump on board if you're not already. We've also got to keep in mind that this is expiration week, so we may see some pinning as we head toward Friday.

No changes

A week ago I wrote about the nice technical setup for the bulls. The indices were short-term oversold and were trying to bounce at a point that would make a higher-low. Well that bounce was successful enough to propel the indices to new 11-month highs today. The indices are now in short-term overbought territory and bumping up against the tops of some trend channels (the channel is much clearer on the Nasdaq). I wouldn't be a seller here but I'd prefer to be a buyer closer to the bottoms of those channels. I think this is "hold 'em if you've got 'em" territory.

All the short term trends flipped back to "up" a couple of days ago...

So here we are once again at an interesting technical juncture just in time for a payroll report. The market has found its footing since Monday's selloff and looks poised for a technical bounce. The Nasdaq and S&P have held safely above their August lows and have finally reached oversold short-term stochastic readings. It's a nice technical setup for the bulls but we'll have to see the if tomorrow morning's jobs data can provide a spark. On the flip side, I think that breaks of the trendlines connecting the indices' August and September lows (or more simply, new September lows) would embolden the bears.

No changes

Things got really interesting today. The indices sold off about 2% in the face of decent economic numbers. Even worse, they ended about 3% lower from where they were when those economic reports were released at 10:00. Apparently we're back in an environment of worrying about beating whisper numbers. Word is that today's numbers failed to do so and that's why we rolled over. The sharp reversal came on some of the highest volume of the summer, so that kind of distribution has to concern the bulls. The technical damage doesn't end there -- the Nasdaq broke its March uptrend today. That may not be such a big deal though, this could just be more fanning out of the March rally. The Nasdaq will need to make a higher high to continue the fanning though.

The rest of the week should be quite telling. Do bulls lock in gains ahead of the long weekend or does some of that alleged sidelined money come rushing in to provide support. Also, there's still the looming payroll report on Friday.

Some more downgrades to the short-term trends...

I'm surprised that the market still reacts to consumer confidence numbers. People always say that they don't' translate into actual consumer behavior, yet the market always gets some kind of reaction based on them, even if they're just knee-jerk reactions. That's what happened today. The numbers put a damper on the early strength. Things actually looked pretty bad for about 15 minutes, then calmer heads prevailed. But by then the damage was done and the early highs were not approached again. The result was a little bit of give-back on Monday's gains. I'm sure the bulls will take that, especially given Monday's light volume. However, I really want to keep an eye on today's highs. There's a danger that we just made the first in a series of lower highs. If we can't make any progress on the quarter-end games tomorrow I'll really be skeptical of the rally continuing...

Minor downgrades to the short term trends...

I just saw this on the WSJ's Pictures of the Day blog and thought I'd share it. The caption on the photo reads: "The sculpture "What You see Might Not Be Real," by Chen Wenling, was displayed at a Beijing gallery Sunday. The artwork is a critique of the global financial crisis, with the bull representing Wall Street and the man pinned to the wall representing Bernard Madoff. (Ng Han Guan/Associated Press)" You can click the photo to see a larger version.

Oh, and speaking of Madoff, if you missed the 60 Minutes piece this weekend on the attempts to recover his assets, I've embedded the video below. To me, the most interesting aspect is that they're trying to do clawbacks on investors who were able to get out of the fund with a profit.

Watch CBS News Videos Online

I don't know if today's rally was due to it being a Merger Monday, month & quarter end markups or a technical bounce. It was probably a little of each. Today was a Jewish holiday though which explains why the volume was so light. That lack of volume is the sole weak spot in what otherwise looked like a very good day for the bulls. But low volume or not, the trend table is showing nothing but "up" again after today's pop. There's potentially resistance at last Wednesday's highs, which is where the post-Fed selling kicked in. I expect some fireworks if & when the indices return to those levels. We could either have late bulls trying to sell to get out at break-even or shorts covering as the market threatens to make new highs.

All the trends are up once again...

Today we had our second down day in a row, which has been a rare thing of late. Early on it seem like it was going to be a really bad day but things stabilized after the first hour. I think a lot of people were focused on S&P 1050 (I think that was some analyst's year-end target). It teetered around that level for most of the day and closed just above it. So to me it still felt like just a normal retracement in a larger uptrend.

Tomorrow should be a good test of the bulls' resolve though. With RIMM stinking up the joint post-earnings it will be interesting to see how much its weakness leeches out into other stocks. Will it cause a mad scramble out of tech or will all the alleged sidelined money come rushing in to find bargains? I think volume will be key tomorrow, especially since it's a Friday. A distribution day would be a really bad way to end the week.

Downgrades to all the short-term trends today...

I apologize for the lack of updates over the last week. I just couldn't bring myself to say the same thing day after day as the market just kept drifting higher. I also wanted to let the Fed decision pass, so that the "wait on the Fed" game could come to an end. So now that the Fed decision/statement is out of the way things are looking a little more interesting. The post-Fed selloff today could be the beginning of a long-awaited pullback but it's too early to know for sure. There's still PLENTY of support out there and the indices are still in uptrends on just about any significant time frame. As has been the case all summer, the bears need to create some follow-through and start to make some lower lows to make me think this is anything more than a normal retracement in an uptrend.

Oil's getting interesting here. If it can break the September lows there's not much support above the July lows around $60.

It's not hard to find many charts that look like Google (GOOG) right now. This one really stood out to me because of that shooting star which printed right at the round umber of $500. With overbought stochastic to boot, I'd be all over this as a swing short if I was still swing trading.

One slight downgrade today.

The trend table says it all about the current environment. The short-term trends aligned with the longer term trends by switched back to "up" about 7 sessions ago. Since then (actually 2 days before that) the market has simply refused to go down for longer than a blink of an eye. Sure the market is short-term overbought -- even Art Cashin has been doing nothing but talking about that fact and how "eerie" the market is -- but trying to pick a top here has been treacherous. It's tough to buck the trend here and it's tough to jump on board if you're not already. We've also got to keep in mind that this is expiration week, so we may see some pinning as we head toward Friday.

No changes

A week ago I wrote about the nice technical setup for the bulls. The indices were short-term oversold and were trying to bounce at a point that would make a higher-low. Well that bounce was successful enough to propel the indices to new 11-month highs today. The indices are now in short-term overbought territory and bumping up against the tops of some trend channels (the channel is much clearer on the Nasdaq). I wouldn't be a seller here but I'd prefer to be a buyer closer to the bottoms of those channels. I think this is "hold 'em if you've got 'em" territory.

All the short term trends flipped back to "up" a couple of days ago...

So here we are once again at an interesting technical juncture just in time for a payroll report. The market has found its footing since Monday's selloff and looks poised for a technical bounce. The Nasdaq and S&P have held safely above their August lows and have finally reached oversold short-term stochastic readings. It's a nice technical setup for the bulls but we'll have to see the if tomorrow morning's jobs data can provide a spark. On the flip side, I think that breaks of the trendlines connecting the indices' August and September lows (or more simply, new September lows) would embolden the bears.

No changes

Things got really interesting today. The indices sold off about 2% in the face of decent economic numbers. Even worse, they ended about 3% lower from where they were when those economic reports were released at 10:00. Apparently we're back in an environment of worrying about beating whisper numbers. Word is that today's numbers failed to do so and that's why we rolled over. The sharp reversal came on some of the highest volume of the summer, so that kind of distribution has to concern the bulls. The technical damage doesn't end there -- the Nasdaq broke its March uptrend today. That may not be such a big deal though, this could just be more fanning out of the March rally. The Nasdaq will need to make a higher high to continue the fanning though.

The rest of the week should be quite telling. Do bulls lock in gains ahead of the long weekend or does some of that alleged sidelined money come rushing in to provide support. Also, there's still the looming payroll report on Friday.

Some more downgrades to the short-term trends...

I'm surprised that the market still reacts to consumer confidence numbers. People always say that they don't' translate into actual consumer behavior, yet the market always gets some kind of reaction based on them, even if they're just knee-jerk reactions. That's what happened today. The numbers put a damper on the early strength. Things actually looked pretty bad for about 15 minutes, then calmer heads prevailed. But by then the damage was done and the early highs were not approached again. The result was a little bit of give-back on Monday's gains. I'm sure the bulls will take that, especially given Monday's light volume. However, I really want to keep an eye on today's highs. There's a danger that we just made the first in a series of lower highs. If we can't make any progress on the quarter-end games tomorrow I'll really be skeptical of the rally continuing...

Minor downgrades to the short term trends...

I just saw this on the WSJ's Pictures of the Day blog and thought I'd share it. The caption on the photo reads: "The sculpture "What You see Might Not Be Real," by Chen Wenling, was displayed at a Beijing gallery Sunday. The artwork is a critique of the global financial crisis, with the bull representing Wall Street and the man pinned to the wall representing Bernard Madoff. (Ng Han Guan/Associated Press)" You can click the photo to see a larger version.

Oh, and speaking of Madoff, if you missed the 60 Minutes piece this weekend on the attempts to recover his assets, I've embedded the video below. To me, the most interesting aspect is that they're trying to do clawbacks on investors who were able to get out of the fund with a profit.

Watch CBS News Videos Online

I don't know if today's rally was due to it being a Merger Monday, month & quarter end markups or a technical bounce. It was probably a little of each. Today was a Jewish holiday though which explains why the volume was so light. That lack of volume is the sole weak spot in what otherwise looked like a very good day for the bulls. But low volume or not, the trend table is showing nothing but "up" again after today's pop. There's potentially resistance at last Wednesday's highs, which is where the post-Fed selling kicked in. I expect some fireworks if & when the indices return to those levels. We could either have late bulls trying to sell to get out at break-even or shorts covering as the market threatens to make new highs.

All the trends are up once again...

Today we had our second down day in a row, which has been a rare thing of late. Early on it seem like it was going to be a really bad day but things stabilized after the first hour. I think a lot of people were focused on S&P 1050 (I think that was some analyst's year-end target). It teetered around that level for most of the day and closed just above it. So to me it still felt like just a normal retracement in a larger uptrend.

Tomorrow should be a good test of the bulls' resolve though. With RIMM stinking up the joint post-earnings it will be interesting to see how much its weakness leeches out into other stocks. Will it cause a mad scramble out of tech or will all the alleged sidelined money come rushing in to find bargains? I think volume will be key tomorrow, especially since it's a Friday. A distribution day would be a really bad way to end the week.

Downgrades to all the short-term trends today...

I apologize for the lack of updates over the last week. I just couldn't bring myself to say the same thing day after day as the market just kept drifting higher. I also wanted to let the Fed decision pass, so that the "wait on the Fed" game could come to an end. So now that the Fed decision/statement is out of the way things are looking a little more interesting. The post-Fed selloff today could be the beginning of a long-awaited pullback but it's too early to know for sure. There's still PLENTY of support out there and the indices are still in uptrends on just about any significant time frame. As has been the case all summer, the bears need to create some follow-through and start to make some lower lows to make me think this is anything more than a normal retracement in an uptrend.

Oil's getting interesting here. If it can break the September lows there's not much support above the July lows around $60.

It's not hard to find many charts that look like Google (GOOG) right now. This one really stood out to me because of that shooting star which printed right at the round umber of $500. With overbought stochastic to boot, I'd be all over this as a swing short if I was still swing trading.

One slight downgrade today.

The trend table says it all about the current environment. The short-term trends aligned with the longer term trends by switched back to "up" about 7 sessions ago. Since then (actually 2 days before that) the market has simply refused to go down for longer than a blink of an eye. Sure the market is short-term overbought -- even Art Cashin has been doing nothing but talking about that fact and how "eerie" the market is -- but trying to pick a top here has been treacherous. It's tough to buck the trend here and it's tough to jump on board if you're not already. We've also got to keep in mind that this is expiration week, so we may see some pinning as we head toward Friday.

No changes

A week ago I wrote about the nice technical setup for the bulls. The indices were short-term oversold and were trying to bounce at a point that would make a higher-low. Well that bounce was successful enough to propel the indices to new 11-month highs today. The indices are now in short-term overbought territory and bumping up against the tops of some trend channels (the channel is much clearer on the Nasdaq). I wouldn't be a seller here but I'd prefer to be a buyer closer to the bottoms of those channels. I think this is "hold 'em if you've got 'em" territory.

All the short term trends flipped back to "up" a couple of days ago...

So here we are once again at an interesting technical juncture just in time for a payroll report. The market has found its footing since Monday's selloff and looks poised for a technical bounce. The Nasdaq and S&P have held safely above their August lows and have finally reached oversold short-term stochastic readings. It's a nice technical setup for the bulls but we'll have to see the if tomorrow morning's jobs data can provide a spark. On the flip side, I think that breaks of the trendlines connecting the indices' August and September lows (or more simply, new September lows) would embolden the bears.

No changes

Things got really interesting today. The indices sold off about 2% in the face of decent economic numbers. Even worse, they ended about 3% lower from where they were when those economic reports were released at 10:00. Apparently we're back in an environment of worrying about beating whisper numbers. Word is that today's numbers failed to do so and that's why we rolled over. The sharp reversal came on some of the highest volume of the summer, so that kind of distribution has to concern the bulls. The technical damage doesn't end there -- the Nasdaq broke its March uptrend today. That may not be such a big deal though, this could just be more fanning out of the March rally. The Nasdaq will need to make a higher high to continue the fanning though.

The rest of the week should be quite telling. Do bulls lock in gains ahead of the long weekend or does some of that alleged sidelined money come rushing in to provide support. Also, there's still the looming payroll report on Friday.

Some more downgrades to the short-term trends...

I'm surprised that the market still reacts to consumer confidence numbers. People always say that they don't' translate into actual consumer behavior, yet the market always gets some kind of reaction based on them, even if they're just knee-jerk reactions. That's what happened today. The numbers put a damper on the early strength. Things actually looked pretty bad for about 15 minutes, then calmer heads prevailed. But by then the damage was done and the early highs were not approached again. The result was a little bit of give-back on Monday's gains. I'm sure the bulls will take that, especially given Monday's light volume. However, I really want to keep an eye on today's highs. There's a danger that we just made the first in a series of lower highs. If we can't make any progress on the quarter-end games tomorrow I'll really be skeptical of the rally continuing...

Minor downgrades to the short term trends...

I just saw this on the WSJ's Pictures of the Day blog and thought I'd share it. The caption on the photo reads: "The sculpture "What You see Might Not Be Real," by Chen Wenling, was displayed at a Beijing gallery Sunday. The artwork is a critique of the global financial crisis, with the bull representing Wall Street and the man pinned to the wall representing Bernard Madoff. (Ng Han Guan/Associated Press)" You can click the photo to see a larger version.

Oh, and speaking of Madoff, if you missed the 60 Minutes piece this weekend on the attempts to recover his assets, I've embedded the video below. To me, the most interesting aspect is that they're trying to do clawbacks on investors who were able to get out of the fund with a profit.

Watch CBS News Videos Online

I don't know if today's rally was due to it being a Merger Monday, month & quarter end markups or a technical bounce. It was probably a little of each. Today was a Jewish holiday though which explains why the volume was so light. That lack of volume is the sole weak spot in what otherwise looked like a very good day for the bulls. But low volume or not, the trend table is showing nothing but "up" again after today's pop. There's potentially resistance at last Wednesday's highs, which is where the post-Fed selling kicked in. I expect some fireworks if & when the indices return to those levels. We could either have late bulls trying to sell to get out at break-even or shorts covering as the market threatens to make new highs.

All the trends are up once again...

Today we had our second down day in a row, which has been a rare thing of late. Early on it seem like it was going to be a really bad day but things stabilized after the first hour. I think a lot of people were focused on S&P 1050 (I think that was some analyst's year-end target). It teetered around that level for most of the day and closed just above it. So to me it still felt like just a normal retracement in a larger uptrend.

Tomorrow should be a good test of the bulls' resolve though. With RIMM stinking up the joint post-earnings it will be interesting to see how much its weakness leeches out into other stocks. Will it cause a mad scramble out of tech or will all the alleged sidelined money come rushing in to find bargains? I think volume will be key tomorrow, especially since it's a Friday. A distribution day would be a really bad way to end the week.

Downgrades to all the short-term trends today...

I apologize for the lack of updates over the last week. I just couldn't bring myself to say the same thing day after day as the market just kept drifting higher. I also wanted to let the Fed decision pass, so that the "wait on the Fed" game could come to an end. So now that the Fed decision/statement is out of the way things are looking a little more interesting. The post-Fed selloff today could be the beginning of a long-awaited pullback but it's too early to know for sure. There's still PLENTY of support out there and the indices are still in uptrends on just about any significant time frame. As has been the case all summer, the bears need to create some follow-through and start to make some lower lows to make me think this is anything more than a normal retracement in an uptrend.

Oil's getting interesting here. If it can break the September lows there's not much support above the July lows around $60.

It's not hard to find many charts that look like Google (GOOG) right now. This one really stood out to me because of that shooting star which printed right at the round umber of $500. With overbought stochastic to boot, I'd be all over this as a swing short if I was still swing trading.

One slight downgrade today.

The trend table says it all about the current environment. The short-term trends aligned with the longer term trends by switched back to "up" about 7 sessions ago. Since then (actually 2 days before that) the market has simply refused to go down for longer than a blink of an eye. Sure the market is short-term overbought -- even Art Cashin has been doing nothing but talking about that fact and how "eerie" the market is -- but trying to pick a top here has been treacherous. It's tough to buck the trend here and it's tough to jump on board if you're not already. We've also got to keep in mind that this is expiration week, so we may see some pinning as we head toward Friday.

No changes

A week ago I wrote about the nice technical setup for the bulls. The indices were short-term oversold and were trying to bounce at a point that would make a higher-low. Well that bounce was successful enough to propel the indices to new 11-month highs today. The indices are now in short-term overbought territory and bumping up against the tops of some trend channels (the channel is much clearer on the Nasdaq). I wouldn't be a seller here but I'd prefer to be a buyer closer to the bottoms of those channels. I think this is "hold 'em if you've got 'em" territory.

All the short term trends flipped back to "up" a couple of days ago...

So here we are once again at an interesting technical juncture just in time for a payroll report. The market has found its footing since Monday's selloff and looks poised for a technical bounce. The Nasdaq and S&P have held safely above their August lows and have finally reached oversold short-term stochastic readings. It's a nice technical setup for the bulls but we'll have to see the if tomorrow morning's jobs data can provide a spark. On the flip side, I think that breaks of the trendlines connecting the indices' August and September lows (or more simply, new September lows) would embolden the bears.

No changes

Things got really interesting today. The indices sold off about 2% in the face of decent economic numbers. Even worse, they ended about 3% lower from where they were when those economic reports were released at 10:00. Apparently we're back in an environment of worrying about beating whisper numbers. Word is that today's numbers failed to do so and that's why we rolled over. The sharp reversal came on some of the highest volume of the summer, so that kind of distribution has to concern the bulls. The technical damage doesn't end there -- the Nasdaq broke its March uptrend today. That may not be such a big deal though, this could just be more fanning out of the March rally. The Nasdaq will need to make a higher high to continue the fanning though.

The rest of the week should be quite telling. Do bulls lock in gains ahead of the long weekend or does some of that alleged sidelined money come rushing in to provide support. Also, there's still the looming payroll report on Friday.

Some more downgrades to the short-term trends...

I'm surprised that the market still reacts to consumer confidence numbers. People always say that they don't' translate into actual consumer behavior, yet the market always gets some kind of reaction based on them, even if they're just knee-jerk reactions. That's what happened today. The numbers put a damper on the early strength. Things actually looked pretty bad for about 15 minutes, then calmer heads prevailed. But by then the damage was done and the early highs were not approached again. The result was a little bit of give-back on Monday's gains. I'm sure the bulls will take that, especially given Monday's light volume. However, I really want to keep an eye on today's highs. There's a danger that we just made the first in a series of lower highs. If we can't make any progress on the quarter-end games tomorrow I'll really be skeptical of the rally continuing...

Minor downgrades to the short term trends...

I just saw this on the WSJ's Pictures of the Day blog and thought I'd share it. The caption on the photo reads: "The sculpture "What You see Might Not Be Real," by Chen Wenling, was displayed at a Beijing gallery Sunday. The artwork is a critique of the global financial crisis, with the bull representing Wall Street and the man pinned to the wall representing Bernard Madoff. (Ng Han Guan/Associated Press)" You can click the photo to see a larger version.

Oh, and speaking of Madoff, if you missed the 60 Minutes piece this weekend on the attempts to recover his assets, I've embedded the video below. To me, the most interesting aspect is that they're trying to do clawbacks on investors who were able to get out of the fund with a profit.

Watch CBS News Videos Online

I don't know if today's rally was due to it being a Merger Monday, month & quarter end markups or a technical bounce. It was probably a little of each. Today was a Jewish holiday though which explains why the volume was so light. That lack of volume is the sole weak spot in what otherwise looked like a very good day for the bulls. But low volume or not, the trend table is showing nothing but "up" again after today's pop. There's potentially resistance at last Wednesday's highs, which is where the post-Fed selling kicked in. I expect some fireworks if & when the indices return to those levels. We could either have late bulls trying to sell to get out at break-even or shorts covering as the market threatens to make new highs.

All the trends are up once again...

Today we had our second down day in a row, which has been a rare thing of late. Early on it seem like it was going to be a really bad day but things stabilized after the first hour. I think a lot of people were focused on S&P 1050 (I think that was some analyst's year-end target). It teetered around that level for most of the day and closed just above it. So to me it still felt like just a normal retracement in a larger uptrend.

Tomorrow should be a good test of the bulls' resolve though. With RIMM stinking up the joint post-earnings it will be interesting to see how much its weakness leeches out into other stocks. Will it cause a mad scramble out of tech or will all the alleged sidelined money come rushing in to find bargains? I think volume will be key tomorrow, especially since it's a Friday. A distribution day would be a really bad way to end the week.

Downgrades to all the short-term trends today...

I apologize for the lack of updates over the last week. I just couldn't bring myself to say the same thing day after day as the market just kept drifting higher. I also wanted to let the Fed decision pass, so that the "wait on the Fed" game could come to an end. So now that the Fed decision/statement is out of the way things are looking a little more interesting. The post-Fed selloff today could be the beginning of a long-awaited pullback but it's too early to know for sure. There's still PLENTY of support out there and the indices are still in uptrends on just about any significant time frame. As has been the case all summer, the bears need to create some follow-through and start to make some lower lows to make me think this is anything more than a normal retracement in an uptrend.

Oil's getting interesting here. If it can break the September lows there's not much support above the July lows around $60.

It's not hard to find many charts that look like Google (GOOG) right now. This one really stood out to me because of that shooting star which printed right at the round umber of $500. With overbought stochastic to boot, I'd be all over this as a swing short if I was still swing trading.

One slight downgrade today.

The trend table says it all about the current environment. The short-term trends aligned with the longer term trends by switched back to "up" about 7 sessions ago. Since then (actually 2 days before that) the market has simply refused to go down for longer than a blink of an eye. Sure the market is short-term overbought -- even Art Cashin has been doing nothing but talking about that fact and how "eerie" the market is -- but trying to pick a top here has been treacherous. It's tough to buck the trend here and it's tough to jump on board if you're not already. We've also got to keep in mind that this is expiration week, so we may see some pinning as we head toward Friday.

No changes

A week ago I wrote about the nice technical setup for the bulls. The indices were short-term oversold and were trying to bounce at a point that would make a higher-low. Well that bounce was successful enough to propel the indices to new 11-month highs today. The indices are now in short-term overbought territory and bumping up against the tops of some trend channels (the channel is much clearer on the Nasdaq). I wouldn't be a seller here but I'd prefer to be a buyer closer to the bottoms of those channels. I think this is "hold 'em if you've got 'em" territory.

All the short term trends flipped back to "up" a couple of days ago...

So here we are once again at an interesting technical juncture just in time for a payroll report. The market has found its footing since Monday's selloff and looks poised for a technical bounce. The Nasdaq and S&P have held safely above their August lows and have finally reached oversold short-term stochastic readings. It's a nice technical setup for the bulls but we'll have to see the if tomorrow morning's jobs data can provide a spark. On the flip side, I think that breaks of the trendlines connecting the indices' August and September lows (or more simply, new September lows) would embolden the bears.

No changes

Things got really interesting today. The indices sold off about 2% in the face of decent economic numbers. Even worse, they ended about 3% lower from where they were when those economic reports were released at 10:00. Apparently we're back in an environment of worrying about beating whisper numbers. Word is that today's numbers failed to do so and that's why we rolled over. The sharp reversal came on some of the highest volume of the summer, so that kind of distribution has to concern the bulls. The technical damage doesn't end there -- the Nasdaq broke its March uptrend today. That may not be such a big deal though, this could just be more fanning out of the March rally. The Nasdaq will need to make a higher high to continue the fanning though.

The rest of the week should be quite telling. Do bulls lock in gains ahead of the long weekend or does some of that alleged sidelined money come rushing in to provide support. Also, there's still the looming payroll report on Friday.

Some more downgrades to the short-term trends...