The trend table says it all about the current environment. The short-term trends aligned with the longer term trends by switched back to "up" about 7 sessions ago. Since then (actually 2 days before that) the market has simply refused to go down for longer than a blink of an eye. Sure the market is short-term overbought -- even Art Cashin has been doing nothing but talking about that fact and how "eerie" the market is -- but trying to pick a top here has been treacherous. It's tough to buck the trend here and it's tough to jump on board if you're not already. We've also got to keep in mind that this is expiration week, so we may see some pinning as we head toward Friday.
No changes
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Term | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Up | Up | Up |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
What do you mean by "pinning"?
I'm referring to the tendency of many stocks to gravitate to (get pinned to) a certain strike price for options expiration. A google search on "options expiration pin" will bring up lots of articles about it.
Ahh, thanks for asking that question Tom. I was about to ask the same.
Thanks for the explanation.
Are you busy pumping out the flood in Atlanta - how is it there? Good Luck.
Thanks for asking. My house and neighborhood are in good shape. Hopefully things will stay that way as more rain comes in the next few days.
Michael,
Wasn't the area suffering from a severe drought a yr or two ago ?
Hope that you remain safe. In 1972, we were rescued from our house by motorboat http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Agnes
I really appreciate the comments you make regarding market conditions. However, I'm exasperated by the time gaps between them. It's now been a week since your last comment.
Regards, Gary
Dave,
Yes, we've been in a drought for about the last 3 years. It's been my suspicion that all the development that's gone on here since the mid-nineties (beginning with the run-up to the 96 Olympics) was (a partial) the cause of the drought. It used to rain like crazy here when I moved to Atlanta in '93. We also had a ton more trees. I've seen complete mini-forests get cleared for construction sites continuously since I've been here. I now suspect that the lack of trees & vegetation is why the ground can't hold water like it used to. I know things go in cycles -- Georgia's had droughts before -- but I can't help but think that our alteration of the land has had an effect as well.
Sorry Gary, it's tough for me to post every day during markets like this. I feel like such a broken record b/c my analysis would have been the same for the last 5 days. I always feel like I'm just boring people and wasting my own time. But I'll try to get better.
I also don't like to say much ahead of Fed meetings b/c they can have such an effect on things. Look for an update tonight since the Fed meeting will be out of the way.
Michael,
"I now suspect that the lack of trees & vegetation is why the ground can't hold water like it used to." EXACTLY
As for the gaps betw posts lawyers use boilerplate :)
There is a similarity betw the misunderstanding of "100 yr floodplain" concept & what happened in the mkts in 2008 :)