November 2009 Archives

We got some volume back in the market today and with that, I think, some clarity on how much the Dubai debt situation will affect our markets. Cooler, less worried, heads prevailed today after a mild attempt to sell off. But there was little change to the overall technical picture today. So I'm still watching the same levels I mentioned yesterday -- the late November range on the S&P and the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq.

No changes

Well that was one of the more interesting holiday week that I can remember. The stock market continued to be the tail wagged by the currency (and other) market(s). The effect of the weakening dollar early in the week was offset by the Dubai debt woes at the end of the week. The result was an 11 cent gain in the S&P and an 8 point loss for the Nasdaq. It would be easy to call the week a wash but there are some bearish developments in financials (see GS and XLF below) and there's still the possibility of more Dubai related fallout.

The Nasdaq reacted to the Dubai news with a huge gap down on Friday. That gap closed the November 6th gap up. It rallied intraday to close back above its 50-day moving average. I'll be watching 2150(ish) and the 50-day moving averages for clues to where we head next.

The S&P is threatening to break below its late November range.

The small caps continue to be laggards. They struggled with the 50-day moving average in the middle of the week and now look headed to the November lows.

Duru pointed out Goldman Sachs to me. (He also has an entire post about its breakdown.) This former rally leader is now lagging badly. It took out its November low on Friday and looks worse than the Russell 2000. If Goldman's hurting the lesser financials (and other companies) can't be doing well.. can they?

Goldman is even doing worse than the broader financial sector. The XLF is still 3 to 4% above its November low but it appears to be rolling over after hitting the wall at its 50-day moving average.

A few downgrades

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back within their mid-October congestion zones. Absent any unexpected news or a big move in the dollar, I'd be surprised if they were able to move out of those ranges during this holiday week. But that's not to say that nothing will be moving during the week. We often see traders gang up and push some low volume stocks around during these holiday weeks. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those games on Wednesday and Friday.

The gaps down on Thursday and Friday are a little troubling but the Nasdaq actually looks like a pretty good risk/reward long above 2150 with a stop under Friday's low.

The S&P has a setup similar to the Nasdaq's but I don't like the risk/reward because 1100 should be resistance.

No changes

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

We got some volume back in the market today and with that, I think, some clarity on how much the Dubai debt situation will affect our markets. Cooler, less worried, heads prevailed today after a mild attempt to sell off. But there was little change to the overall technical picture today. So I'm still watching the same levels I mentioned yesterday -- the late November range on the S&P and the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq.

No changes

Well that was one of the more interesting holiday week that I can remember. The stock market continued to be the tail wagged by the currency (and other) market(s). The effect of the weakening dollar early in the week was offset by the Dubai debt woes at the end of the week. The result was an 11 cent gain in the S&P and an 8 point loss for the Nasdaq. It would be easy to call the week a wash but there are some bearish developments in financials (see GS and XLF below) and there's still the possibility of more Dubai related fallout.

The Nasdaq reacted to the Dubai news with a huge gap down on Friday. That gap closed the November 6th gap up. It rallied intraday to close back above its 50-day moving average. I'll be watching 2150(ish) and the 50-day moving averages for clues to where we head next.

The S&P is threatening to break below its late November range.

The small caps continue to be laggards. They struggled with the 50-day moving average in the middle of the week and now look headed to the November lows.

Duru pointed out Goldman Sachs to me. (He also has an entire post about its breakdown.) This former rally leader is now lagging badly. It took out its November low on Friday and looks worse than the Russell 2000. If Goldman's hurting the lesser financials (and other companies) can't be doing well.. can they?

Goldman is even doing worse than the broader financial sector. The XLF is still 3 to 4% above its November low but it appears to be rolling over after hitting the wall at its 50-day moving average.

A few downgrades

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back within their mid-October congestion zones. Absent any unexpected news or a big move in the dollar, I'd be surprised if they were able to move out of those ranges during this holiday week. But that's not to say that nothing will be moving during the week. We often see traders gang up and push some low volume stocks around during these holiday weeks. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those games on Wednesday and Friday.

The gaps down on Thursday and Friday are a little troubling but the Nasdaq actually looks like a pretty good risk/reward long above 2150 with a stop under Friday's low.

The S&P has a setup similar to the Nasdaq's but I don't like the risk/reward because 1100 should be resistance.

No changes

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

We got some volume back in the market today and with that, I think, some clarity on how much the Dubai debt situation will affect our markets. Cooler, less worried, heads prevailed today after a mild attempt to sell off. But there was little change to the overall technical picture today. So I'm still watching the same levels I mentioned yesterday -- the late November range on the S&P and the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq.

No changes

Well that was one of the more interesting holiday week that I can remember. The stock market continued to be the tail wagged by the currency (and other) market(s). The effect of the weakening dollar early in the week was offset by the Dubai debt woes at the end of the week. The result was an 11 cent gain in the S&P and an 8 point loss for the Nasdaq. It would be easy to call the week a wash but there are some bearish developments in financials (see GS and XLF below) and there's still the possibility of more Dubai related fallout.

The Nasdaq reacted to the Dubai news with a huge gap down on Friday. That gap closed the November 6th gap up. It rallied intraday to close back above its 50-day moving average. I'll be watching 2150(ish) and the 50-day moving averages for clues to where we head next.

The S&P is threatening to break below its late November range.

The small caps continue to be laggards. They struggled with the 50-day moving average in the middle of the week and now look headed to the November lows.

Duru pointed out Goldman Sachs to me. (He also has an entire post about its breakdown.) This former rally leader is now lagging badly. It took out its November low on Friday and looks worse than the Russell 2000. If Goldman's hurting the lesser financials (and other companies) can't be doing well.. can they?

Goldman is even doing worse than the broader financial sector. The XLF is still 3 to 4% above its November low but it appears to be rolling over after hitting the wall at its 50-day moving average.

A few downgrades

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back within their mid-October congestion zones. Absent any unexpected news or a big move in the dollar, I'd be surprised if they were able to move out of those ranges during this holiday week. But that's not to say that nothing will be moving during the week. We often see traders gang up and push some low volume stocks around during these holiday weeks. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those games on Wednesday and Friday.

The gaps down on Thursday and Friday are a little troubling but the Nasdaq actually looks like a pretty good risk/reward long above 2150 with a stop under Friday's low.

The S&P has a setup similar to the Nasdaq's but I don't like the risk/reward because 1100 should be resistance.

No changes

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

We got some volume back in the market today and with that, I think, some clarity on how much the Dubai debt situation will affect our markets. Cooler, less worried, heads prevailed today after a mild attempt to sell off. But there was little change to the overall technical picture today. So I'm still watching the same levels I mentioned yesterday -- the late November range on the S&P and the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq.

No changes

Well that was one of the more interesting holiday week that I can remember. The stock market continued to be the tail wagged by the currency (and other) market(s). The effect of the weakening dollar early in the week was offset by the Dubai debt woes at the end of the week. The result was an 11 cent gain in the S&P and an 8 point loss for the Nasdaq. It would be easy to call the week a wash but there are some bearish developments in financials (see GS and XLF below) and there's still the possibility of more Dubai related fallout.

The Nasdaq reacted to the Dubai news with a huge gap down on Friday. That gap closed the November 6th gap up. It rallied intraday to close back above its 50-day moving average. I'll be watching 2150(ish) and the 50-day moving averages for clues to where we head next.

The S&P is threatening to break below its late November range.

The small caps continue to be laggards. They struggled with the 50-day moving average in the middle of the week and now look headed to the November lows.

Duru pointed out Goldman Sachs to me. (He also has an entire post about its breakdown.) This former rally leader is now lagging badly. It took out its November low on Friday and looks worse than the Russell 2000. If Goldman's hurting the lesser financials (and other companies) can't be doing well.. can they?

Goldman is even doing worse than the broader financial sector. The XLF is still 3 to 4% above its November low but it appears to be rolling over after hitting the wall at its 50-day moving average.

A few downgrades

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back within their mid-October congestion zones. Absent any unexpected news or a big move in the dollar, I'd be surprised if they were able to move out of those ranges during this holiday week. But that's not to say that nothing will be moving during the week. We often see traders gang up and push some low volume stocks around during these holiday weeks. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those games on Wednesday and Friday.

The gaps down on Thursday and Friday are a little troubling but the Nasdaq actually looks like a pretty good risk/reward long above 2150 with a stop under Friday's low.

The S&P has a setup similar to the Nasdaq's but I don't like the risk/reward because 1100 should be resistance.

No changes

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

We got some volume back in the market today and with that, I think, some clarity on how much the Dubai debt situation will affect our markets. Cooler, less worried, heads prevailed today after a mild attempt to sell off. But there was little change to the overall technical picture today. So I'm still watching the same levels I mentioned yesterday -- the late November range on the S&P and the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq.

No changes

Well that was one of the more interesting holiday week that I can remember. The stock market continued to be the tail wagged by the currency (and other) market(s). The effect of the weakening dollar early in the week was offset by the Dubai debt woes at the end of the week. The result was an 11 cent gain in the S&P and an 8 point loss for the Nasdaq. It would be easy to call the week a wash but there are some bearish developments in financials (see GS and XLF below) and there's still the possibility of more Dubai related fallout.

The Nasdaq reacted to the Dubai news with a huge gap down on Friday. That gap closed the November 6th gap up. It rallied intraday to close back above its 50-day moving average. I'll be watching 2150(ish) and the 50-day moving averages for clues to where we head next.

The S&P is threatening to break below its late November range.

The small caps continue to be laggards. They struggled with the 50-day moving average in the middle of the week and now look headed to the November lows.

Duru pointed out Goldman Sachs to me. (He also has an entire post about its breakdown.) This former rally leader is now lagging badly. It took out its November low on Friday and looks worse than the Russell 2000. If Goldman's hurting the lesser financials (and other companies) can't be doing well.. can they?

Goldman is even doing worse than the broader financial sector. The XLF is still 3 to 4% above its November low but it appears to be rolling over after hitting the wall at its 50-day moving average.

A few downgrades

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back within their mid-October congestion zones. Absent any unexpected news or a big move in the dollar, I'd be surprised if they were able to move out of those ranges during this holiday week. But that's not to say that nothing will be moving during the week. We often see traders gang up and push some low volume stocks around during these holiday weeks. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those games on Wednesday and Friday.

The gaps down on Thursday and Friday are a little troubling but the Nasdaq actually looks like a pretty good risk/reward long above 2150 with a stop under Friday's low.

The S&P has a setup similar to the Nasdaq's but I don't like the risk/reward because 1100 should be resistance.

No changes

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

We got some volume back in the market today and with that, I think, some clarity on how much the Dubai debt situation will affect our markets. Cooler, less worried, heads prevailed today after a mild attempt to sell off. But there was little change to the overall technical picture today. So I'm still watching the same levels I mentioned yesterday -- the late November range on the S&P and the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq.

No changes

Well that was one of the more interesting holiday week that I can remember. The stock market continued to be the tail wagged by the currency (and other) market(s). The effect of the weakening dollar early in the week was offset by the Dubai debt woes at the end of the week. The result was an 11 cent gain in the S&P and an 8 point loss for the Nasdaq. It would be easy to call the week a wash but there are some bearish developments in financials (see GS and XLF below) and there's still the possibility of more Dubai related fallout.

The Nasdaq reacted to the Dubai news with a huge gap down on Friday. That gap closed the November 6th gap up. It rallied intraday to close back above its 50-day moving average. I'll be watching 2150(ish) and the 50-day moving averages for clues to where we head next.

The S&P is threatening to break below its late November range.

The small caps continue to be laggards. They struggled with the 50-day moving average in the middle of the week and now look headed to the November lows.

Duru pointed out Goldman Sachs to me. (He also has an entire post about its breakdown.) This former rally leader is now lagging badly. It took out its November low on Friday and looks worse than the Russell 2000. If Goldman's hurting the lesser financials (and other companies) can't be doing well.. can they?

Goldman is even doing worse than the broader financial sector. The XLF is still 3 to 4% above its November low but it appears to be rolling over after hitting the wall at its 50-day moving average.

A few downgrades

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back within their mid-October congestion zones. Absent any unexpected news or a big move in the dollar, I'd be surprised if they were able to move out of those ranges during this holiday week. But that's not to say that nothing will be moving during the week. We often see traders gang up and push some low volume stocks around during these holiday weeks. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those games on Wednesday and Friday.

The gaps down on Thursday and Friday are a little troubling but the Nasdaq actually looks like a pretty good risk/reward long above 2150 with a stop under Friday's low.

The S&P has a setup similar to the Nasdaq's but I don't like the risk/reward because 1100 should be resistance.

No changes

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

We got some volume back in the market today and with that, I think, some clarity on how much the Dubai debt situation will affect our markets. Cooler, less worried, heads prevailed today after a mild attempt to sell off. But there was little change to the overall technical picture today. So I'm still watching the same levels I mentioned yesterday -- the late November range on the S&P and the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq.

No changes

Well that was one of the more interesting holiday week that I can remember. The stock market continued to be the tail wagged by the currency (and other) market(s). The effect of the weakening dollar early in the week was offset by the Dubai debt woes at the end of the week. The result was an 11 cent gain in the S&P and an 8 point loss for the Nasdaq. It would be easy to call the week a wash but there are some bearish developments in financials (see GS and XLF below) and there's still the possibility of more Dubai related fallout.

The Nasdaq reacted to the Dubai news with a huge gap down on Friday. That gap closed the November 6th gap up. It rallied intraday to close back above its 50-day moving average. I'll be watching 2150(ish) and the 50-day moving averages for clues to where we head next.

The S&P is threatening to break below its late November range.

The small caps continue to be laggards. They struggled with the 50-day moving average in the middle of the week and now look headed to the November lows.

Duru pointed out Goldman Sachs to me. (He also has an entire post about its breakdown.) This former rally leader is now lagging badly. It took out its November low on Friday and looks worse than the Russell 2000. If Goldman's hurting the lesser financials (and other companies) can't be doing well.. can they?

Goldman is even doing worse than the broader financial sector. The XLF is still 3 to 4% above its November low but it appears to be rolling over after hitting the wall at its 50-day moving average.

A few downgrades

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back within their mid-October congestion zones. Absent any unexpected news or a big move in the dollar, I'd be surprised if they were able to move out of those ranges during this holiday week. But that's not to say that nothing will be moving during the week. We often see traders gang up and push some low volume stocks around during these holiday weeks. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those games on Wednesday and Friday.

The gaps down on Thursday and Friday are a little troubling but the Nasdaq actually looks like a pretty good risk/reward long above 2150 with a stop under Friday's low.

The S&P has a setup similar to the Nasdaq's but I don't like the risk/reward because 1100 should be resistance.

No changes

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

We got some volume back in the market today and with that, I think, some clarity on how much the Dubai debt situation will affect our markets. Cooler, less worried, heads prevailed today after a mild attempt to sell off. But there was little change to the overall technical picture today. So I'm still watching the same levels I mentioned yesterday -- the late November range on the S&P and the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq.

No changes

Well that was one of the more interesting holiday week that I can remember. The stock market continued to be the tail wagged by the currency (and other) market(s). The effect of the weakening dollar early in the week was offset by the Dubai debt woes at the end of the week. The result was an 11 cent gain in the S&P and an 8 point loss for the Nasdaq. It would be easy to call the week a wash but there are some bearish developments in financials (see GS and XLF below) and there's still the possibility of more Dubai related fallout.

The Nasdaq reacted to the Dubai news with a huge gap down on Friday. That gap closed the November 6th gap up. It rallied intraday to close back above its 50-day moving average. I'll be watching 2150(ish) and the 50-day moving averages for clues to where we head next.

The S&P is threatening to break below its late November range.

The small caps continue to be laggards. They struggled with the 50-day moving average in the middle of the week and now look headed to the November lows.

Duru pointed out Goldman Sachs to me. (He also has an entire post about its breakdown.) This former rally leader is now lagging badly. It took out its November low on Friday and looks worse than the Russell 2000. If Goldman's hurting the lesser financials (and other companies) can't be doing well.. can they?

Goldman is even doing worse than the broader financial sector. The XLF is still 3 to 4% above its November low but it appears to be rolling over after hitting the wall at its 50-day moving average.

A few downgrades

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back within their mid-October congestion zones. Absent any unexpected news or a big move in the dollar, I'd be surprised if they were able to move out of those ranges during this holiday week. But that's not to say that nothing will be moving during the week. We often see traders gang up and push some low volume stocks around during these holiday weeks. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those games on Wednesday and Friday.

The gaps down on Thursday and Friday are a little troubling but the Nasdaq actually looks like a pretty good risk/reward long above 2150 with a stop under Friday's low.

The S&P has a setup similar to the Nasdaq's but I don't like the risk/reward because 1100 should be resistance.

No changes

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

We got some volume back in the market today and with that, I think, some clarity on how much the Dubai debt situation will affect our markets. Cooler, less worried, heads prevailed today after a mild attempt to sell off. But there was little change to the overall technical picture today. So I'm still watching the same levels I mentioned yesterday -- the late November range on the S&P and the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq.

No changes

Well that was one of the more interesting holiday week that I can remember. The stock market continued to be the tail wagged by the currency (and other) market(s). The effect of the weakening dollar early in the week was offset by the Dubai debt woes at the end of the week. The result was an 11 cent gain in the S&P and an 8 point loss for the Nasdaq. It would be easy to call the week a wash but there are some bearish developments in financials (see GS and XLF below) and there's still the possibility of more Dubai related fallout.

The Nasdaq reacted to the Dubai news with a huge gap down on Friday. That gap closed the November 6th gap up. It rallied intraday to close back above its 50-day moving average. I'll be watching 2150(ish) and the 50-day moving averages for clues to where we head next.

The S&P is threatening to break below its late November range.

The small caps continue to be laggards. They struggled with the 50-day moving average in the middle of the week and now look headed to the November lows.

Duru pointed out Goldman Sachs to me. (He also has an entire post about its breakdown.) This former rally leader is now lagging badly. It took out its November low on Friday and looks worse than the Russell 2000. If Goldman's hurting the lesser financials (and other companies) can't be doing well.. can they?

Goldman is even doing worse than the broader financial sector. The XLF is still 3 to 4% above its November low but it appears to be rolling over after hitting the wall at its 50-day moving average.

A few downgrades

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back within their mid-October congestion zones. Absent any unexpected news or a big move in the dollar, I'd be surprised if they were able to move out of those ranges during this holiday week. But that's not to say that nothing will be moving during the week. We often see traders gang up and push some low volume stocks around during these holiday weeks. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those games on Wednesday and Friday.

The gaps down on Thursday and Friday are a little troubling but the Nasdaq actually looks like a pretty good risk/reward long above 2150 with a stop under Friday's low.

The S&P has a setup similar to the Nasdaq's but I don't like the risk/reward because 1100 should be resistance.

No changes

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

We got some volume back in the market today and with that, I think, some clarity on how much the Dubai debt situation will affect our markets. Cooler, less worried, heads prevailed today after a mild attempt to sell off. But there was little change to the overall technical picture today. So I'm still watching the same levels I mentioned yesterday -- the late November range on the S&P and the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq.

No changes

Well that was one of the more interesting holiday week that I can remember. The stock market continued to be the tail wagged by the currency (and other) market(s). The effect of the weakening dollar early in the week was offset by the Dubai debt woes at the end of the week. The result was an 11 cent gain in the S&P and an 8 point loss for the Nasdaq. It would be easy to call the week a wash but there are some bearish developments in financials (see GS and XLF below) and there's still the possibility of more Dubai related fallout.

The Nasdaq reacted to the Dubai news with a huge gap down on Friday. That gap closed the November 6th gap up. It rallied intraday to close back above its 50-day moving average. I'll be watching 2150(ish) and the 50-day moving averages for clues to where we head next.

The S&P is threatening to break below its late November range.

The small caps continue to be laggards. They struggled with the 50-day moving average in the middle of the week and now look headed to the November lows.

Duru pointed out Goldman Sachs to me. (He also has an entire post about its breakdown.) This former rally leader is now lagging badly. It took out its November low on Friday and looks worse than the Russell 2000. If Goldman's hurting the lesser financials (and other companies) can't be doing well.. can they?

Goldman is even doing worse than the broader financial sector. The XLF is still 3 to 4% above its November low but it appears to be rolling over after hitting the wall at its 50-day moving average.

A few downgrades

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back within their mid-October congestion zones. Absent any unexpected news or a big move in the dollar, I'd be surprised if they were able to move out of those ranges during this holiday week. But that's not to say that nothing will be moving during the week. We often see traders gang up and push some low volume stocks around during these holiday weeks. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those games on Wednesday and Friday.

The gaps down on Thursday and Friday are a little troubling but the Nasdaq actually looks like a pretty good risk/reward long above 2150 with a stop under Friday's low.

The S&P has a setup similar to the Nasdaq's but I don't like the risk/reward because 1100 should be resistance.

No changes

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

We got some volume back in the market today and with that, I think, some clarity on how much the Dubai debt situation will affect our markets. Cooler, less worried, heads prevailed today after a mild attempt to sell off. But there was little change to the overall technical picture today. So I'm still watching the same levels I mentioned yesterday -- the late November range on the S&P and the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq.

No changes

Well that was one of the more interesting holiday week that I can remember. The stock market continued to be the tail wagged by the currency (and other) market(s). The effect of the weakening dollar early in the week was offset by the Dubai debt woes at the end of the week. The result was an 11 cent gain in the S&P and an 8 point loss for the Nasdaq. It would be easy to call the week a wash but there are some bearish developments in financials (see GS and XLF below) and there's still the possibility of more Dubai related fallout.

The Nasdaq reacted to the Dubai news with a huge gap down on Friday. That gap closed the November 6th gap up. It rallied intraday to close back above its 50-day moving average. I'll be watching 2150(ish) and the 50-day moving averages for clues to where we head next.

The S&P is threatening to break below its late November range.

The small caps continue to be laggards. They struggled with the 50-day moving average in the middle of the week and now look headed to the November lows.

Duru pointed out Goldman Sachs to me. (He also has an entire post about its breakdown.) This former rally leader is now lagging badly. It took out its November low on Friday and looks worse than the Russell 2000. If Goldman's hurting the lesser financials (and other companies) can't be doing well.. can they?

Goldman is even doing worse than the broader financial sector. The XLF is still 3 to 4% above its November low but it appears to be rolling over after hitting the wall at its 50-day moving average.

A few downgrades

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back within their mid-October congestion zones. Absent any unexpected news or a big move in the dollar, I'd be surprised if they were able to move out of those ranges during this holiday week. But that's not to say that nothing will be moving during the week. We often see traders gang up and push some low volume stocks around during these holiday weeks. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those games on Wednesday and Friday.

The gaps down on Thursday and Friday are a little troubling but the Nasdaq actually looks like a pretty good risk/reward long above 2150 with a stop under Friday's low.

The S&P has a setup similar to the Nasdaq's but I don't like the risk/reward because 1100 should be resistance.

No changes

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

We got some volume back in the market today and with that, I think, some clarity on how much the Dubai debt situation will affect our markets. Cooler, less worried, heads prevailed today after a mild attempt to sell off. But there was little change to the overall technical picture today. So I'm still watching the same levels I mentioned yesterday -- the late November range on the S&P and the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq.

No changes

Well that was one of the more interesting holiday week that I can remember. The stock market continued to be the tail wagged by the currency (and other) market(s). The effect of the weakening dollar early in the week was offset by the Dubai debt woes at the end of the week. The result was an 11 cent gain in the S&P and an 8 point loss for the Nasdaq. It would be easy to call the week a wash but there are some bearish developments in financials (see GS and XLF below) and there's still the possibility of more Dubai related fallout.

The Nasdaq reacted to the Dubai news with a huge gap down on Friday. That gap closed the November 6th gap up. It rallied intraday to close back above its 50-day moving average. I'll be watching 2150(ish) and the 50-day moving averages for clues to where we head next.

The S&P is threatening to break below its late November range.

The small caps continue to be laggards. They struggled with the 50-day moving average in the middle of the week and now look headed to the November lows.

Duru pointed out Goldman Sachs to me. (He also has an entire post about its breakdown.) This former rally leader is now lagging badly. It took out its November low on Friday and looks worse than the Russell 2000. If Goldman's hurting the lesser financials (and other companies) can't be doing well.. can they?

Goldman is even doing worse than the broader financial sector. The XLF is still 3 to 4% above its November low but it appears to be rolling over after hitting the wall at its 50-day moving average.

A few downgrades

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are back within their mid-October congestion zones. Absent any unexpected news or a big move in the dollar, I'd be surprised if they were able to move out of those ranges during this holiday week. But that's not to say that nothing will be moving during the week. We often see traders gang up and push some low volume stocks around during these holiday weeks. So it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those games on Wednesday and Friday.

The gaps down on Thursday and Friday are a little troubling but the Nasdaq actually looks like a pretty good risk/reward long above 2150 with a stop under Friday's low.

The S&P has a setup similar to the Nasdaq's but I don't like the risk/reward because 1100 should be resistance.

No changes

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.