The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.
Everything is up once again...
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Term | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up(+) |
| Short-term | Up | Up | Up |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
In the last 3 up legs, the move lasted 9-13 bars. This leg is 10 bars old. I bet the next top comes in the next 2 days.
Interesting observation....time will tell
Yes, I suppose many Bears got caught out trying to pick a top. With figures for University of Michigan sentiment down on Friday, then Core Retail down (although Y/Y up) and finally Empire State Manufacturing Index down big time, a retrace was expected.
Alas, the bulls turned out in force, so should be interesting today. Wednesday, reversal day or not?
GT