So we had another session with wild intraday swings that were opposite the dollar. Unlike other recent sessions with those type of swings, this session resulted in a stalemate. Indeed, bulls and bears could claim victory today. The bulls can rejoice that they were able to defend last week's lows. But the bears can point to the failed morning rally on the back of pretty good economic data. Given the oversold nature of the market we could have easily seen a 2 or 3% gain on the day.
My outlook is basically the same as it was yesterday. The danger of an oversold rally is a little less now that the stochastics are starting to rise. I think that if the market can't make any progress beyond today's range by Wednesday's close (post-Fed decision) it will be open season for shorting. The market would just have gone sideways and relieved the oversold condition. I will be paying close attention to the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. It was a cap on today's rally and could very well continue to be resistance.
No changes for a change
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Term | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Down | Down | Down |
| Short-term | Down | Down | Down |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
When was the last time you were able to even think about saying "open season on shorting"? LOL...
"The market would just have gone sideways and relieved the oversold condition."
If "that" happens it would actually look worse than sideways. Action since 10/29 would look like a big running correction in a wave 4. Your thoughts regarding that, Mike ?
Thank you
Is that Elliot Wave you're talking? I don't know much about it.
Yes