This is the beginning of tonight's Worden Report (emphasis is mine):
A Freakish SituationThe market, freakishly, is in a situation markedly similar to what we had yesterday. Today we have a weak market following a very strong market. Yesterday we had a strong market following a very weak day.
Until this market shows the ability to put some kind of a trend together for just a few days, there is no point in trying to put a forecast together. The only rational way to handle it is to treat it like what it is--a waiting game.
Today's trading stats were strictly negative. All Ten Important Averages were down, as a group averaging -1.17%. This compares to +1.33% yesterday and -1.09% the day before.Today all 16 of the Breadth Groupings were Negative: 14 Super-Decisively and two Decisively. Yesterday all 16 were Super-Decisively Positive. The market day before that all 16 were Super-Decisively Negative. That's downright outlandish.
Can you feel his frustration? I've been sidelined the last few days (while switching brokers) but the action has even been maddening to me. I just *knew* the indices were going to break down today, especially with the dollar surging but they held support. Some chop is to be expected during earnings season -- especially the down one day, up the next day kind of chop. That's why I used to take the heavy earnings weeks off when I was swing trading. Days that gapped back & forth like the last few days used to drive me crazy when I was holding positions overnight. Based on the post-market action I think we're in for another reversal tomorrow. So Worden is right, this is just something you just have to wait out unless you're operating on a low enough time frame to take advantage of the intraday back & forth.
It seems that I'm always harping about (relatively) poor upside volume and I'm doing it again. The volume action, especially on the Nasdaq, has been poor. That's why I was really surprised to see support hold today. Until I see some higher volume up days I have to believe that we're building a top.
| Trend | Nasdaq | S&P 500 | Russell 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Term | Up | Up | Up |
| Intermediate | Up | Up | Up |
| Short-term | Down(-) | Down(-) | Down(-) |
(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend
*** I'm simply using the indices' relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.
Check out the increasing volume on the Qs, heavily weighted to the downside. Very suspect (meaning toppy) pattern to me. I am wondering whether action in INTC and GOOG are distorting things though.
Do you mind if I ask which broker you're switching to and why? I'm still with SSPro (old CyberTrader).
I'll let you know when I figure it out. Hopefully that will be by tomorrow.