Recently in Stock Market Category

THis was a mixed session wit the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq continuing to outperform the larger cap indices. The small caps look pretty good here as they extend above their January highs. The market is stretched (overbought) and I'm still concerned about the larger caps weighing down the rest of the market. That nagging feeling is also partially due to the lack of volume during most of this current leg up. I'm by no means bearish right now but a pullback to the February trendlines would not surprise me in the least. In fact, I think that a small pullback that works off the market's overbought condition would be the best thing for the bull case. I think that the S&P needs that in order to build up some potential enrgy for a successful try at its January highs.

No changes

As is so often the case, we're stuck in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of the monthly payroll report. There are some clearly defined 3-day ranges on the charts below and they should break (one way or the other) if the jobs data is outside of expectations. So there's really not much to do besides wait for the ranges to break. On a downside break the bears need to be wary of support at the February trendlines, which aren't far away.

no changes

Today the market broke free of the sideways pattern its been in for the last week or so. In doing so it made the technical picture look a lot better. The indices have cleared their 50-day moving averages and have clearly defined patterns of higher highs and higher lows. The Dow (which I pay little attention to) is a notable exception -- it didn't take out its February high. Small caps are leading the way as they're already threatening their 2010 highs. So there was a lot for the bulls to like about today. Volume even surged on the Nasdaq, although it contracted on the S&P 500. I don't really see the lack of volume on the S&P as a big deal given all the positive technical developments today as well as the fact that volume is often on the light side on Mondays. So it seem that we're in for some retests of the January highs in the near future. It will be interesting to see if the smaller cap & Nasdaq stocks can drag the S&P and Dow along for the ride.

Everything's up again...

The latest consumer confidence numbers weighed on the market today. I'm not sure why people were expecting anything good from that data given the (real) unemployment rate though. The Russell 2000 is still above its 50-day moving average but most of the other indices are now sliding away from theirs. I've purposely not mentioned volume much lately but it's worth noting today that volume was higher than most of the rally days since the February bottom. That's clearly a negative in my book. While I'm a bit more bearish than bullish right now I have to acknowledge that the indices are in no-man's land. I say that because the Naz and S&P are between their 50 and 200-day moving averages (longer-term bull, intermediate-term bear) and because they're not showing clear patterns of higher-highs & higher-lows nor lower-highs & lower-lows. So while we may get some trending in very short time-frames, I suspect we'll see a lot of chop in the longer time-frames.

A few downgrades...

My outlook hasn't changed over the last couple of sessions. The market remains extended and short-term overbought and the battle over the 50-day moving averages is still being fought. I can easily see a scenario where the large cap stocks -- the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq-100 are all basically right on their 50 DMAs -- drag down the other indices which have been able to clear their 50 DMAs (Russell 2000, Nasdaq). However, over-eager bears should keep in mind that we could also work off the overbought condition by simply going sideways. So I'd want to see some confirmed follow-through before getting aggressively short here.

No changes

The technical picture was looking a lot better at the close today thanks to the Nasdaq rising above its 50-day moving average and the S&P 500 closing just shy of its 50 DMA. But the Federal Reserve made a surprise move (raising the discount rate) after the market closed which took SPY and QQQQ below their session lows. So we may very well see today's gains wiped out at the open tomorrow. (The timing of the Fed move *almost* makes me wonder if they timed it to coincide with the indices reaching their 50 DMAs.) The market can be really indecisive following any Fed move so I'd be really careful tomorrow, especially on the short side. My guess is that the first reaction in the morning will be to buy the weakness.

Two upgrades today

We got some continuation of last week's strength but I think it's still too soon to sound the all-clear signal. The obvious obstacles for the Nasdaq and S&P are their 50-day moving averages. Let's see if they can follow the Russell 2000, which closed above its 50 DMA today. I suspect it won't be quite as easy for the larger cap averages to accomplish that feat.

One upgrade today

For now, the stock market likes what came out of the EU today with regard to handling the crisis in Greece. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 broke their downtrends which started in mid-January. The S&P 500 stopped just shy of breaking its trendline though. I'm curious to see how much more improvement can be done to the technical landscape right here. The S&P is just a few points away from the bottom of its November-December trading range (~1085). The floor of that range should be solid resistance, so the action there will be important. A break above it should send shorts scrambling, while a drop from that level will likely encourage the bears.

Upgrades to all the short-term trends

The price action was certainly disappointing today but there are a couple of good reasons not to read too much into it. First, volume was really light, so the selling wasn't intense. (That could be taken as a bad thing though, if you're looking for a flushing out of the weak hands.) The other reason is that short-term support put in on Friday's reversal are still intact. That's the obvious place to look for short-term support but on a slightly higher time frame I'm focused on playing the downward sloping channels I've drawn on the charts below. The indices are in the middle of those channels so my motivation to do anything right here is low. But I'm a (short) seller when and if we get back near the tops of those channels.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

THis was a mixed session wit the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq continuing to outperform the larger cap indices. The small caps look pretty good here as they extend above their January highs. The market is stretched (overbought) and I'm still concerned about the larger caps weighing down the rest of the market. That nagging feeling is also partially due to the lack of volume during most of this current leg up. I'm by no means bearish right now but a pullback to the February trendlines would not surprise me in the least. In fact, I think that a small pullback that works off the market's overbought condition would be the best thing for the bull case. I think that the S&P needs that in order to build up some potential enrgy for a successful try at its January highs.

No changes

As is so often the case, we're stuck in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of the monthly payroll report. There are some clearly defined 3-day ranges on the charts below and they should break (one way or the other) if the jobs data is outside of expectations. So there's really not much to do besides wait for the ranges to break. On a downside break the bears need to be wary of support at the February trendlines, which aren't far away.

no changes

Today the market broke free of the sideways pattern its been in for the last week or so. In doing so it made the technical picture look a lot better. The indices have cleared their 50-day moving averages and have clearly defined patterns of higher highs and higher lows. The Dow (which I pay little attention to) is a notable exception -- it didn't take out its February high. Small caps are leading the way as they're already threatening their 2010 highs. So there was a lot for the bulls to like about today. Volume even surged on the Nasdaq, although it contracted on the S&P 500. I don't really see the lack of volume on the S&P as a big deal given all the positive technical developments today as well as the fact that volume is often on the light side on Mondays. So it seem that we're in for some retests of the January highs in the near future. It will be interesting to see if the smaller cap & Nasdaq stocks can drag the S&P and Dow along for the ride.

Everything's up again...

The latest consumer confidence numbers weighed on the market today. I'm not sure why people were expecting anything good from that data given the (real) unemployment rate though. The Russell 2000 is still above its 50-day moving average but most of the other indices are now sliding away from theirs. I've purposely not mentioned volume much lately but it's worth noting today that volume was higher than most of the rally days since the February bottom. That's clearly a negative in my book. While I'm a bit more bearish than bullish right now I have to acknowledge that the indices are in no-man's land. I say that because the Naz and S&P are between their 50 and 200-day moving averages (longer-term bull, intermediate-term bear) and because they're not showing clear patterns of higher-highs & higher-lows nor lower-highs & lower-lows. So while we may get some trending in very short time-frames, I suspect we'll see a lot of chop in the longer time-frames.

A few downgrades...

My outlook hasn't changed over the last couple of sessions. The market remains extended and short-term overbought and the battle over the 50-day moving averages is still being fought. I can easily see a scenario where the large cap stocks -- the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq-100 are all basically right on their 50 DMAs -- drag down the other indices which have been able to clear their 50 DMAs (Russell 2000, Nasdaq). However, over-eager bears should keep in mind that we could also work off the overbought condition by simply going sideways. So I'd want to see some confirmed follow-through before getting aggressively short here.

No changes

The technical picture was looking a lot better at the close today thanks to the Nasdaq rising above its 50-day moving average and the S&P 500 closing just shy of its 50 DMA. But the Federal Reserve made a surprise move (raising the discount rate) after the market closed which took SPY and QQQQ below their session lows. So we may very well see today's gains wiped out at the open tomorrow. (The timing of the Fed move *almost* makes me wonder if they timed it to coincide with the indices reaching their 50 DMAs.) The market can be really indecisive following any Fed move so I'd be really careful tomorrow, especially on the short side. My guess is that the first reaction in the morning will be to buy the weakness.

Two upgrades today

We got some continuation of last week's strength but I think it's still too soon to sound the all-clear signal. The obvious obstacles for the Nasdaq and S&P are their 50-day moving averages. Let's see if they can follow the Russell 2000, which closed above its 50 DMA today. I suspect it won't be quite as easy for the larger cap averages to accomplish that feat.

One upgrade today

For now, the stock market likes what came out of the EU today with regard to handling the crisis in Greece. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 broke their downtrends which started in mid-January. The S&P 500 stopped just shy of breaking its trendline though. I'm curious to see how much more improvement can be done to the technical landscape right here. The S&P is just a few points away from the bottom of its November-December trading range (~1085). The floor of that range should be solid resistance, so the action there will be important. A break above it should send shorts scrambling, while a drop from that level will likely encourage the bears.

Upgrades to all the short-term trends

The price action was certainly disappointing today but there are a couple of good reasons not to read too much into it. First, volume was really light, so the selling wasn't intense. (That could be taken as a bad thing though, if you're looking for a flushing out of the weak hands.) The other reason is that short-term support put in on Friday's reversal are still intact. That's the obvious place to look for short-term support but on a slightly higher time frame I'm focused on playing the downward sloping channels I've drawn on the charts below. The indices are in the middle of those channels so my motivation to do anything right here is low. But I'm a (short) seller when and if we get back near the tops of those channels.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

THis was a mixed session wit the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq continuing to outperform the larger cap indices. The small caps look pretty good here as they extend above their January highs. The market is stretched (overbought) and I'm still concerned about the larger caps weighing down the rest of the market. That nagging feeling is also partially due to the lack of volume during most of this current leg up. I'm by no means bearish right now but a pullback to the February trendlines would not surprise me in the least. In fact, I think that a small pullback that works off the market's overbought condition would be the best thing for the bull case. I think that the S&P needs that in order to build up some potential enrgy for a successful try at its January highs.

No changes

As is so often the case, we're stuck in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of the monthly payroll report. There are some clearly defined 3-day ranges on the charts below and they should break (one way or the other) if the jobs data is outside of expectations. So there's really not much to do besides wait for the ranges to break. On a downside break the bears need to be wary of support at the February trendlines, which aren't far away.

no changes

Today the market broke free of the sideways pattern its been in for the last week or so. In doing so it made the technical picture look a lot better. The indices have cleared their 50-day moving averages and have clearly defined patterns of higher highs and higher lows. The Dow (which I pay little attention to) is a notable exception -- it didn't take out its February high. Small caps are leading the way as they're already threatening their 2010 highs. So there was a lot for the bulls to like about today. Volume even surged on the Nasdaq, although it contracted on the S&P 500. I don't really see the lack of volume on the S&P as a big deal given all the positive technical developments today as well as the fact that volume is often on the light side on Mondays. So it seem that we're in for some retests of the January highs in the near future. It will be interesting to see if the smaller cap & Nasdaq stocks can drag the S&P and Dow along for the ride.

Everything's up again...

The latest consumer confidence numbers weighed on the market today. I'm not sure why people were expecting anything good from that data given the (real) unemployment rate though. The Russell 2000 is still above its 50-day moving average but most of the other indices are now sliding away from theirs. I've purposely not mentioned volume much lately but it's worth noting today that volume was higher than most of the rally days since the February bottom. That's clearly a negative in my book. While I'm a bit more bearish than bullish right now I have to acknowledge that the indices are in no-man's land. I say that because the Naz and S&P are between their 50 and 200-day moving averages (longer-term bull, intermediate-term bear) and because they're not showing clear patterns of higher-highs & higher-lows nor lower-highs & lower-lows. So while we may get some trending in very short time-frames, I suspect we'll see a lot of chop in the longer time-frames.

A few downgrades...

My outlook hasn't changed over the last couple of sessions. The market remains extended and short-term overbought and the battle over the 50-day moving averages is still being fought. I can easily see a scenario where the large cap stocks -- the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq-100 are all basically right on their 50 DMAs -- drag down the other indices which have been able to clear their 50 DMAs (Russell 2000, Nasdaq). However, over-eager bears should keep in mind that we could also work off the overbought condition by simply going sideways. So I'd want to see some confirmed follow-through before getting aggressively short here.

No changes

The technical picture was looking a lot better at the close today thanks to the Nasdaq rising above its 50-day moving average and the S&P 500 closing just shy of its 50 DMA. But the Federal Reserve made a surprise move (raising the discount rate) after the market closed which took SPY and QQQQ below their session lows. So we may very well see today's gains wiped out at the open tomorrow. (The timing of the Fed move *almost* makes me wonder if they timed it to coincide with the indices reaching their 50 DMAs.) The market can be really indecisive following any Fed move so I'd be really careful tomorrow, especially on the short side. My guess is that the first reaction in the morning will be to buy the weakness.

Two upgrades today

We got some continuation of last week's strength but I think it's still too soon to sound the all-clear signal. The obvious obstacles for the Nasdaq and S&P are their 50-day moving averages. Let's see if they can follow the Russell 2000, which closed above its 50 DMA today. I suspect it won't be quite as easy for the larger cap averages to accomplish that feat.

One upgrade today

For now, the stock market likes what came out of the EU today with regard to handling the crisis in Greece. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 broke their downtrends which started in mid-January. The S&P 500 stopped just shy of breaking its trendline though. I'm curious to see how much more improvement can be done to the technical landscape right here. The S&P is just a few points away from the bottom of its November-December trading range (~1085). The floor of that range should be solid resistance, so the action there will be important. A break above it should send shorts scrambling, while a drop from that level will likely encourage the bears.

Upgrades to all the short-term trends

The price action was certainly disappointing today but there are a couple of good reasons not to read too much into it. First, volume was really light, so the selling wasn't intense. (That could be taken as a bad thing though, if you're looking for a flushing out of the weak hands.) The other reason is that short-term support put in on Friday's reversal are still intact. That's the obvious place to look for short-term support but on a slightly higher time frame I'm focused on playing the downward sloping channels I've drawn on the charts below. The indices are in the middle of those channels so my motivation to do anything right here is low. But I'm a (short) seller when and if we get back near the tops of those channels.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

THis was a mixed session wit the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq continuing to outperform the larger cap indices. The small caps look pretty good here as they extend above their January highs. The market is stretched (overbought) and I'm still concerned about the larger caps weighing down the rest of the market. That nagging feeling is also partially due to the lack of volume during most of this current leg up. I'm by no means bearish right now but a pullback to the February trendlines would not surprise me in the least. In fact, I think that a small pullback that works off the market's overbought condition would be the best thing for the bull case. I think that the S&P needs that in order to build up some potential enrgy for a successful try at its January highs.

No changes

As is so often the case, we're stuck in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of the monthly payroll report. There are some clearly defined 3-day ranges on the charts below and they should break (one way or the other) if the jobs data is outside of expectations. So there's really not much to do besides wait for the ranges to break. On a downside break the bears need to be wary of support at the February trendlines, which aren't far away.

no changes

Today the market broke free of the sideways pattern its been in for the last week or so. In doing so it made the technical picture look a lot better. The indices have cleared their 50-day moving averages and have clearly defined patterns of higher highs and higher lows. The Dow (which I pay little attention to) is a notable exception -- it didn't take out its February high. Small caps are leading the way as they're already threatening their 2010 highs. So there was a lot for the bulls to like about today. Volume even surged on the Nasdaq, although it contracted on the S&P 500. I don't really see the lack of volume on the S&P as a big deal given all the positive technical developments today as well as the fact that volume is often on the light side on Mondays. So it seem that we're in for some retests of the January highs in the near future. It will be interesting to see if the smaller cap & Nasdaq stocks can drag the S&P and Dow along for the ride.

Everything's up again...

The latest consumer confidence numbers weighed on the market today. I'm not sure why people were expecting anything good from that data given the (real) unemployment rate though. The Russell 2000 is still above its 50-day moving average but most of the other indices are now sliding away from theirs. I've purposely not mentioned volume much lately but it's worth noting today that volume was higher than most of the rally days since the February bottom. That's clearly a negative in my book. While I'm a bit more bearish than bullish right now I have to acknowledge that the indices are in no-man's land. I say that because the Naz and S&P are between their 50 and 200-day moving averages (longer-term bull, intermediate-term bear) and because they're not showing clear patterns of higher-highs & higher-lows nor lower-highs & lower-lows. So while we may get some trending in very short time-frames, I suspect we'll see a lot of chop in the longer time-frames.

A few downgrades...

My outlook hasn't changed over the last couple of sessions. The market remains extended and short-term overbought and the battle over the 50-day moving averages is still being fought. I can easily see a scenario where the large cap stocks -- the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq-100 are all basically right on their 50 DMAs -- drag down the other indices which have been able to clear their 50 DMAs (Russell 2000, Nasdaq). However, over-eager bears should keep in mind that we could also work off the overbought condition by simply going sideways. So I'd want to see some confirmed follow-through before getting aggressively short here.

No changes

The technical picture was looking a lot better at the close today thanks to the Nasdaq rising above its 50-day moving average and the S&P 500 closing just shy of its 50 DMA. But the Federal Reserve made a surprise move (raising the discount rate) after the market closed which took SPY and QQQQ below their session lows. So we may very well see today's gains wiped out at the open tomorrow. (The timing of the Fed move *almost* makes me wonder if they timed it to coincide with the indices reaching their 50 DMAs.) The market can be really indecisive following any Fed move so I'd be really careful tomorrow, especially on the short side. My guess is that the first reaction in the morning will be to buy the weakness.

Two upgrades today

We got some continuation of last week's strength but I think it's still too soon to sound the all-clear signal. The obvious obstacles for the Nasdaq and S&P are their 50-day moving averages. Let's see if they can follow the Russell 2000, which closed above its 50 DMA today. I suspect it won't be quite as easy for the larger cap averages to accomplish that feat.

One upgrade today

For now, the stock market likes what came out of the EU today with regard to handling the crisis in Greece. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 broke their downtrends which started in mid-January. The S&P 500 stopped just shy of breaking its trendline though. I'm curious to see how much more improvement can be done to the technical landscape right here. The S&P is just a few points away from the bottom of its November-December trading range (~1085). The floor of that range should be solid resistance, so the action there will be important. A break above it should send shorts scrambling, while a drop from that level will likely encourage the bears.

Upgrades to all the short-term trends

The price action was certainly disappointing today but there are a couple of good reasons not to read too much into it. First, volume was really light, so the selling wasn't intense. (That could be taken as a bad thing though, if you're looking for a flushing out of the weak hands.) The other reason is that short-term support put in on Friday's reversal are still intact. That's the obvious place to look for short-term support but on a slightly higher time frame I'm focused on playing the downward sloping channels I've drawn on the charts below. The indices are in the middle of those channels so my motivation to do anything right here is low. But I'm a (short) seller when and if we get back near the tops of those channels.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

THis was a mixed session wit the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq continuing to outperform the larger cap indices. The small caps look pretty good here as they extend above their January highs. The market is stretched (overbought) and I'm still concerned about the larger caps weighing down the rest of the market. That nagging feeling is also partially due to the lack of volume during most of this current leg up. I'm by no means bearish right now but a pullback to the February trendlines would not surprise me in the least. In fact, I think that a small pullback that works off the market's overbought condition would be the best thing for the bull case. I think that the S&P needs that in order to build up some potential enrgy for a successful try at its January highs.

No changes

As is so often the case, we're stuck in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of the monthly payroll report. There are some clearly defined 3-day ranges on the charts below and they should break (one way or the other) if the jobs data is outside of expectations. So there's really not much to do besides wait for the ranges to break. On a downside break the bears need to be wary of support at the February trendlines, which aren't far away.

no changes

Today the market broke free of the sideways pattern its been in for the last week or so. In doing so it made the technical picture look a lot better. The indices have cleared their 50-day moving averages and have clearly defined patterns of higher highs and higher lows. The Dow (which I pay little attention to) is a notable exception -- it didn't take out its February high. Small caps are leading the way as they're already threatening their 2010 highs. So there was a lot for the bulls to like about today. Volume even surged on the Nasdaq, although it contracted on the S&P 500. I don't really see the lack of volume on the S&P as a big deal given all the positive technical developments today as well as the fact that volume is often on the light side on Mondays. So it seem that we're in for some retests of the January highs in the near future. It will be interesting to see if the smaller cap & Nasdaq stocks can drag the S&P and Dow along for the ride.

Everything's up again...

The latest consumer confidence numbers weighed on the market today. I'm not sure why people were expecting anything good from that data given the (real) unemployment rate though. The Russell 2000 is still above its 50-day moving average but most of the other indices are now sliding away from theirs. I've purposely not mentioned volume much lately but it's worth noting today that volume was higher than most of the rally days since the February bottom. That's clearly a negative in my book. While I'm a bit more bearish than bullish right now I have to acknowledge that the indices are in no-man's land. I say that because the Naz and S&P are between their 50 and 200-day moving averages (longer-term bull, intermediate-term bear) and because they're not showing clear patterns of higher-highs & higher-lows nor lower-highs & lower-lows. So while we may get some trending in very short time-frames, I suspect we'll see a lot of chop in the longer time-frames.

A few downgrades...

My outlook hasn't changed over the last couple of sessions. The market remains extended and short-term overbought and the battle over the 50-day moving averages is still being fought. I can easily see a scenario where the large cap stocks -- the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq-100 are all basically right on their 50 DMAs -- drag down the other indices which have been able to clear their 50 DMAs (Russell 2000, Nasdaq). However, over-eager bears should keep in mind that we could also work off the overbought condition by simply going sideways. So I'd want to see some confirmed follow-through before getting aggressively short here.

No changes

The technical picture was looking a lot better at the close today thanks to the Nasdaq rising above its 50-day moving average and the S&P 500 closing just shy of its 50 DMA. But the Federal Reserve made a surprise move (raising the discount rate) after the market closed which took SPY and QQQQ below their session lows. So we may very well see today's gains wiped out at the open tomorrow. (The timing of the Fed move *almost* makes me wonder if they timed it to coincide with the indices reaching their 50 DMAs.) The market can be really indecisive following any Fed move so I'd be really careful tomorrow, especially on the short side. My guess is that the first reaction in the morning will be to buy the weakness.

Two upgrades today

We got some continuation of last week's strength but I think it's still too soon to sound the all-clear signal. The obvious obstacles for the Nasdaq and S&P are their 50-day moving averages. Let's see if they can follow the Russell 2000, which closed above its 50 DMA today. I suspect it won't be quite as easy for the larger cap averages to accomplish that feat.

One upgrade today

For now, the stock market likes what came out of the EU today with regard to handling the crisis in Greece. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 broke their downtrends which started in mid-January. The S&P 500 stopped just shy of breaking its trendline though. I'm curious to see how much more improvement can be done to the technical landscape right here. The S&P is just a few points away from the bottom of its November-December trading range (~1085). The floor of that range should be solid resistance, so the action there will be important. A break above it should send shorts scrambling, while a drop from that level will likely encourage the bears.

Upgrades to all the short-term trends

The price action was certainly disappointing today but there are a couple of good reasons not to read too much into it. First, volume was really light, so the selling wasn't intense. (That could be taken as a bad thing though, if you're looking for a flushing out of the weak hands.) The other reason is that short-term support put in on Friday's reversal are still intact. That's the obvious place to look for short-term support but on a slightly higher time frame I'm focused on playing the downward sloping channels I've drawn on the charts below. The indices are in the middle of those channels so my motivation to do anything right here is low. But I'm a (short) seller when and if we get back near the tops of those channels.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

THis was a mixed session wit the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq continuing to outperform the larger cap indices. The small caps look pretty good here as they extend above their January highs. The market is stretched (overbought) and I'm still concerned about the larger caps weighing down the rest of the market. That nagging feeling is also partially due to the lack of volume during most of this current leg up. I'm by no means bearish right now but a pullback to the February trendlines would not surprise me in the least. In fact, I think that a small pullback that works off the market's overbought condition would be the best thing for the bull case. I think that the S&P needs that in order to build up some potential enrgy for a successful try at its January highs.

No changes

As is so often the case, we're stuck in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of the monthly payroll report. There are some clearly defined 3-day ranges on the charts below and they should break (one way or the other) if the jobs data is outside of expectations. So there's really not much to do besides wait for the ranges to break. On a downside break the bears need to be wary of support at the February trendlines, which aren't far away.

no changes

Today the market broke free of the sideways pattern its been in for the last week or so. In doing so it made the technical picture look a lot better. The indices have cleared their 50-day moving averages and have clearly defined patterns of higher highs and higher lows. The Dow (which I pay little attention to) is a notable exception -- it didn't take out its February high. Small caps are leading the way as they're already threatening their 2010 highs. So there was a lot for the bulls to like about today. Volume even surged on the Nasdaq, although it contracted on the S&P 500. I don't really see the lack of volume on the S&P as a big deal given all the positive technical developments today as well as the fact that volume is often on the light side on Mondays. So it seem that we're in for some retests of the January highs in the near future. It will be interesting to see if the smaller cap & Nasdaq stocks can drag the S&P and Dow along for the ride.

Everything's up again...

The latest consumer confidence numbers weighed on the market today. I'm not sure why people were expecting anything good from that data given the (real) unemployment rate though. The Russell 2000 is still above its 50-day moving average but most of the other indices are now sliding away from theirs. I've purposely not mentioned volume much lately but it's worth noting today that volume was higher than most of the rally days since the February bottom. That's clearly a negative in my book. While I'm a bit more bearish than bullish right now I have to acknowledge that the indices are in no-man's land. I say that because the Naz and S&P are between their 50 and 200-day moving averages (longer-term bull, intermediate-term bear) and because they're not showing clear patterns of higher-highs & higher-lows nor lower-highs & lower-lows. So while we may get some trending in very short time-frames, I suspect we'll see a lot of chop in the longer time-frames.

A few downgrades...

My outlook hasn't changed over the last couple of sessions. The market remains extended and short-term overbought and the battle over the 50-day moving averages is still being fought. I can easily see a scenario where the large cap stocks -- the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq-100 are all basically right on their 50 DMAs -- drag down the other indices which have been able to clear their 50 DMAs (Russell 2000, Nasdaq). However, over-eager bears should keep in mind that we could also work off the overbought condition by simply going sideways. So I'd want to see some confirmed follow-through before getting aggressively short here.

No changes

The technical picture was looking a lot better at the close today thanks to the Nasdaq rising above its 50-day moving average and the S&P 500 closing just shy of its 50 DMA. But the Federal Reserve made a surprise move (raising the discount rate) after the market closed which took SPY and QQQQ below their session lows. So we may very well see today's gains wiped out at the open tomorrow. (The timing of the Fed move *almost* makes me wonder if they timed it to coincide with the indices reaching their 50 DMAs.) The market can be really indecisive following any Fed move so I'd be really careful tomorrow, especially on the short side. My guess is that the first reaction in the morning will be to buy the weakness.

Two upgrades today

We got some continuation of last week's strength but I think it's still too soon to sound the all-clear signal. The obvious obstacles for the Nasdaq and S&P are their 50-day moving averages. Let's see if they can follow the Russell 2000, which closed above its 50 DMA today. I suspect it won't be quite as easy for the larger cap averages to accomplish that feat.

One upgrade today

For now, the stock market likes what came out of the EU today with regard to handling the crisis in Greece. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 broke their downtrends which started in mid-January. The S&P 500 stopped just shy of breaking its trendline though. I'm curious to see how much more improvement can be done to the technical landscape right here. The S&P is just a few points away from the bottom of its November-December trading range (~1085). The floor of that range should be solid resistance, so the action there will be important. A break above it should send shorts scrambling, while a drop from that level will likely encourage the bears.

Upgrades to all the short-term trends

The price action was certainly disappointing today but there are a couple of good reasons not to read too much into it. First, volume was really light, so the selling wasn't intense. (That could be taken as a bad thing though, if you're looking for a flushing out of the weak hands.) The other reason is that short-term support put in on Friday's reversal are still intact. That's the obvious place to look for short-term support but on a slightly higher time frame I'm focused on playing the downward sloping channels I've drawn on the charts below. The indices are in the middle of those channels so my motivation to do anything right here is low. But I'm a (short) seller when and if we get back near the tops of those channels.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

THis was a mixed session wit the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq continuing to outperform the larger cap indices. The small caps look pretty good here as they extend above their January highs. The market is stretched (overbought) and I'm still concerned about the larger caps weighing down the rest of the market. That nagging feeling is also partially due to the lack of volume during most of this current leg up. I'm by no means bearish right now but a pullback to the February trendlines would not surprise me in the least. In fact, I think that a small pullback that works off the market's overbought condition would be the best thing for the bull case. I think that the S&P needs that in order to build up some potential enrgy for a successful try at its January highs.

No changes

As is so often the case, we're stuck in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of the monthly payroll report. There are some clearly defined 3-day ranges on the charts below and they should break (one way or the other) if the jobs data is outside of expectations. So there's really not much to do besides wait for the ranges to break. On a downside break the bears need to be wary of support at the February trendlines, which aren't far away.

no changes

Today the market broke free of the sideways pattern its been in for the last week or so. In doing so it made the technical picture look a lot better. The indices have cleared their 50-day moving averages and have clearly defined patterns of higher highs and higher lows. The Dow (which I pay little attention to) is a notable exception -- it didn't take out its February high. Small caps are leading the way as they're already threatening their 2010 highs. So there was a lot for the bulls to like about today. Volume even surged on the Nasdaq, although it contracted on the S&P 500. I don't really see the lack of volume on the S&P as a big deal given all the positive technical developments today as well as the fact that volume is often on the light side on Mondays. So it seem that we're in for some retests of the January highs in the near future. It will be interesting to see if the smaller cap & Nasdaq stocks can drag the S&P and Dow along for the ride.

Everything's up again...

The latest consumer confidence numbers weighed on the market today. I'm not sure why people were expecting anything good from that data given the (real) unemployment rate though. The Russell 2000 is still above its 50-day moving average but most of the other indices are now sliding away from theirs. I've purposely not mentioned volume much lately but it's worth noting today that volume was higher than most of the rally days since the February bottom. That's clearly a negative in my book. While I'm a bit more bearish than bullish right now I have to acknowledge that the indices are in no-man's land. I say that because the Naz and S&P are between their 50 and 200-day moving averages (longer-term bull, intermediate-term bear) and because they're not showing clear patterns of higher-highs & higher-lows nor lower-highs & lower-lows. So while we may get some trending in very short time-frames, I suspect we'll see a lot of chop in the longer time-frames.

A few downgrades...

My outlook hasn't changed over the last couple of sessions. The market remains extended and short-term overbought and the battle over the 50-day moving averages is still being fought. I can easily see a scenario where the large cap stocks -- the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq-100 are all basically right on their 50 DMAs -- drag down the other indices which have been able to clear their 50 DMAs (Russell 2000, Nasdaq). However, over-eager bears should keep in mind that we could also work off the overbought condition by simply going sideways. So I'd want to see some confirmed follow-through before getting aggressively short here.

No changes

The technical picture was looking a lot better at the close today thanks to the Nasdaq rising above its 50-day moving average and the S&P 500 closing just shy of its 50 DMA. But the Federal Reserve made a surprise move (raising the discount rate) after the market closed which took SPY and QQQQ below their session lows. So we may very well see today's gains wiped out at the open tomorrow. (The timing of the Fed move *almost* makes me wonder if they timed it to coincide with the indices reaching their 50 DMAs.) The market can be really indecisive following any Fed move so I'd be really careful tomorrow, especially on the short side. My guess is that the first reaction in the morning will be to buy the weakness.

Two upgrades today

We got some continuation of last week's strength but I think it's still too soon to sound the all-clear signal. The obvious obstacles for the Nasdaq and S&P are their 50-day moving averages. Let's see if they can follow the Russell 2000, which closed above its 50 DMA today. I suspect it won't be quite as easy for the larger cap averages to accomplish that feat.

One upgrade today

For now, the stock market likes what came out of the EU today with regard to handling the crisis in Greece. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 broke their downtrends which started in mid-January. The S&P 500 stopped just shy of breaking its trendline though. I'm curious to see how much more improvement can be done to the technical landscape right here. The S&P is just a few points away from the bottom of its November-December trading range (~1085). The floor of that range should be solid resistance, so the action there will be important. A break above it should send shorts scrambling, while a drop from that level will likely encourage the bears.

Upgrades to all the short-term trends

The price action was certainly disappointing today but there are a couple of good reasons not to read too much into it. First, volume was really light, so the selling wasn't intense. (That could be taken as a bad thing though, if you're looking for a flushing out of the weak hands.) The other reason is that short-term support put in on Friday's reversal are still intact. That's the obvious place to look for short-term support but on a slightly higher time frame I'm focused on playing the downward sloping channels I've drawn on the charts below. The indices are in the middle of those channels so my motivation to do anything right here is low. But I'm a (short) seller when and if we get back near the tops of those channels.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

THis was a mixed session wit the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq continuing to outperform the larger cap indices. The small caps look pretty good here as they extend above their January highs. The market is stretched (overbought) and I'm still concerned about the larger caps weighing down the rest of the market. That nagging feeling is also partially due to the lack of volume during most of this current leg up. I'm by no means bearish right now but a pullback to the February trendlines would not surprise me in the least. In fact, I think that a small pullback that works off the market's overbought condition would be the best thing for the bull case. I think that the S&P needs that in order to build up some potential enrgy for a successful try at its January highs.

No changes

As is so often the case, we're stuck in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of the monthly payroll report. There are some clearly defined 3-day ranges on the charts below and they should break (one way or the other) if the jobs data is outside of expectations. So there's really not much to do besides wait for the ranges to break. On a downside break the bears need to be wary of support at the February trendlines, which aren't far away.

no changes

Today the market broke free of the sideways pattern its been in for the last week or so. In doing so it made the technical picture look a lot better. The indices have cleared their 50-day moving averages and have clearly defined patterns of higher highs and higher lows. The Dow (which I pay little attention to) is a notable exception -- it didn't take out its February high. Small caps are leading the way as they're already threatening their 2010 highs. So there was a lot for the bulls to like about today. Volume even surged on the Nasdaq, although it contracted on the S&P 500. I don't really see the lack of volume on the S&P as a big deal given all the positive technical developments today as well as the fact that volume is often on the light side on Mondays. So it seem that we're in for some retests of the January highs in the near future. It will be interesting to see if the smaller cap & Nasdaq stocks can drag the S&P and Dow along for the ride.

Everything's up again...

The latest consumer confidence numbers weighed on the market today. I'm not sure why people were expecting anything good from that data given the (real) unemployment rate though. The Russell 2000 is still above its 50-day moving average but most of the other indices are now sliding away from theirs. I've purposely not mentioned volume much lately but it's worth noting today that volume was higher than most of the rally days since the February bottom. That's clearly a negative in my book. While I'm a bit more bearish than bullish right now I have to acknowledge that the indices are in no-man's land. I say that because the Naz and S&P are between their 50 and 200-day moving averages (longer-term bull, intermediate-term bear) and because they're not showing clear patterns of higher-highs & higher-lows nor lower-highs & lower-lows. So while we may get some trending in very short time-frames, I suspect we'll see a lot of chop in the longer time-frames.

A few downgrades...

My outlook hasn't changed over the last couple of sessions. The market remains extended and short-term overbought and the battle over the 50-day moving averages is still being fought. I can easily see a scenario where the large cap stocks -- the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq-100 are all basically right on their 50 DMAs -- drag down the other indices which have been able to clear their 50 DMAs (Russell 2000, Nasdaq). However, over-eager bears should keep in mind that we could also work off the overbought condition by simply going sideways. So I'd want to see some confirmed follow-through before getting aggressively short here.

No changes

The technical picture was looking a lot better at the close today thanks to the Nasdaq rising above its 50-day moving average and the S&P 500 closing just shy of its 50 DMA. But the Federal Reserve made a surprise move (raising the discount rate) after the market closed which took SPY and QQQQ below their session lows. So we may very well see today's gains wiped out at the open tomorrow. (The timing of the Fed move *almost* makes me wonder if they timed it to coincide with the indices reaching their 50 DMAs.) The market can be really indecisive following any Fed move so I'd be really careful tomorrow, especially on the short side. My guess is that the first reaction in the morning will be to buy the weakness.

Two upgrades today

We got some continuation of last week's strength but I think it's still too soon to sound the all-clear signal. The obvious obstacles for the Nasdaq and S&P are their 50-day moving averages. Let's see if they can follow the Russell 2000, which closed above its 50 DMA today. I suspect it won't be quite as easy for the larger cap averages to accomplish that feat.

One upgrade today

For now, the stock market likes what came out of the EU today with regard to handling the crisis in Greece. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 broke their downtrends which started in mid-January. The S&P 500 stopped just shy of breaking its trendline though. I'm curious to see how much more improvement can be done to the technical landscape right here. The S&P is just a few points away from the bottom of its November-December trading range (~1085). The floor of that range should be solid resistance, so the action there will be important. A break above it should send shorts scrambling, while a drop from that level will likely encourage the bears.

Upgrades to all the short-term trends

The price action was certainly disappointing today but there are a couple of good reasons not to read too much into it. First, volume was really light, so the selling wasn't intense. (That could be taken as a bad thing though, if you're looking for a flushing out of the weak hands.) The other reason is that short-term support put in on Friday's reversal are still intact. That's the obvious place to look for short-term support but on a slightly higher time frame I'm focused on playing the downward sloping channels I've drawn on the charts below. The indices are in the middle of those channels so my motivation to do anything right here is low. But I'm a (short) seller when and if we get back near the tops of those channels.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

THis was a mixed session wit the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq continuing to outperform the larger cap indices. The small caps look pretty good here as they extend above their January highs. The market is stretched (overbought) and I'm still concerned about the larger caps weighing down the rest of the market. That nagging feeling is also partially due to the lack of volume during most of this current leg up. I'm by no means bearish right now but a pullback to the February trendlines would not surprise me in the least. In fact, I think that a small pullback that works off the market's overbought condition would be the best thing for the bull case. I think that the S&P needs that in order to build up some potential enrgy for a successful try at its January highs.

No changes

As is so often the case, we're stuck in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of the monthly payroll report. There are some clearly defined 3-day ranges on the charts below and they should break (one way or the other) if the jobs data is outside of expectations. So there's really not much to do besides wait for the ranges to break. On a downside break the bears need to be wary of support at the February trendlines, which aren't far away.

no changes

Today the market broke free of the sideways pattern its been in for the last week or so. In doing so it made the technical picture look a lot better. The indices have cleared their 50-day moving averages and have clearly defined patterns of higher highs and higher lows. The Dow (which I pay little attention to) is a notable exception -- it didn't take out its February high. Small caps are leading the way as they're already threatening their 2010 highs. So there was a lot for the bulls to like about today. Volume even surged on the Nasdaq, although it contracted on the S&P 500. I don't really see the lack of volume on the S&P as a big deal given all the positive technical developments today as well as the fact that volume is often on the light side on Mondays. So it seem that we're in for some retests of the January highs in the near future. It will be interesting to see if the smaller cap & Nasdaq stocks can drag the S&P and Dow along for the ride.

Everything's up again...

The latest consumer confidence numbers weighed on the market today. I'm not sure why people were expecting anything good from that data given the (real) unemployment rate though. The Russell 2000 is still above its 50-day moving average but most of the other indices are now sliding away from theirs. I've purposely not mentioned volume much lately but it's worth noting today that volume was higher than most of the rally days since the February bottom. That's clearly a negative in my book. While I'm a bit more bearish than bullish right now I have to acknowledge that the indices are in no-man's land. I say that because the Naz and S&P are between their 50 and 200-day moving averages (longer-term bull, intermediate-term bear) and because they're not showing clear patterns of higher-highs & higher-lows nor lower-highs & lower-lows. So while we may get some trending in very short time-frames, I suspect we'll see a lot of chop in the longer time-frames.

A few downgrades...

My outlook hasn't changed over the last couple of sessions. The market remains extended and short-term overbought and the battle over the 50-day moving averages is still being fought. I can easily see a scenario where the large cap stocks -- the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq-100 are all basically right on their 50 DMAs -- drag down the other indices which have been able to clear their 50 DMAs (Russell 2000, Nasdaq). However, over-eager bears should keep in mind that we could also work off the overbought condition by simply going sideways. So I'd want to see some confirmed follow-through before getting aggressively short here.

No changes

The technical picture was looking a lot better at the close today thanks to the Nasdaq rising above its 50-day moving average and the S&P 500 closing just shy of its 50 DMA. But the Federal Reserve made a surprise move (raising the discount rate) after the market closed which took SPY and QQQQ below their session lows. So we may very well see today's gains wiped out at the open tomorrow. (The timing of the Fed move *almost* makes me wonder if they timed it to coincide with the indices reaching their 50 DMAs.) The market can be really indecisive following any Fed move so I'd be really careful tomorrow, especially on the short side. My guess is that the first reaction in the morning will be to buy the weakness.

Two upgrades today

We got some continuation of last week's strength but I think it's still too soon to sound the all-clear signal. The obvious obstacles for the Nasdaq and S&P are their 50-day moving averages. Let's see if they can follow the Russell 2000, which closed above its 50 DMA today. I suspect it won't be quite as easy for the larger cap averages to accomplish that feat.

One upgrade today

For now, the stock market likes what came out of the EU today with regard to handling the crisis in Greece. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 broke their downtrends which started in mid-January. The S&P 500 stopped just shy of breaking its trendline though. I'm curious to see how much more improvement can be done to the technical landscape right here. The S&P is just a few points away from the bottom of its November-December trading range (~1085). The floor of that range should be solid resistance, so the action there will be important. A break above it should send shorts scrambling, while a drop from that level will likely encourage the bears.

Upgrades to all the short-term trends

The price action was certainly disappointing today but there are a couple of good reasons not to read too much into it. First, volume was really light, so the selling wasn't intense. (That could be taken as a bad thing though, if you're looking for a flushing out of the weak hands.) The other reason is that short-term support put in on Friday's reversal are still intact. That's the obvious place to look for short-term support but on a slightly higher time frame I'm focused on playing the downward sloping channels I've drawn on the charts below. The indices are in the middle of those channels so my motivation to do anything right here is low. But I'm a (short) seller when and if we get back near the tops of those channels.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

THis was a mixed session wit the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq continuing to outperform the larger cap indices. The small caps look pretty good here as they extend above their January highs. The market is stretched (overbought) and I'm still concerned about the larger caps weighing down the rest of the market. That nagging feeling is also partially due to the lack of volume during most of this current leg up. I'm by no means bearish right now but a pullback to the February trendlines would not surprise me in the least. In fact, I think that a small pullback that works off the market's overbought condition would be the best thing for the bull case. I think that the S&P needs that in order to build up some potential enrgy for a successful try at its January highs.

No changes

As is so often the case, we're stuck in a bit of a holding pattern ahead of the monthly payroll report. There are some clearly defined 3-day ranges on the charts below and they should break (one way or the other) if the jobs data is outside of expectations. So there's really not much to do besides wait for the ranges to break. On a downside break the bears need to be wary of support at the February trendlines, which aren't far away.

no changes

Today the market broke free of the sideways pattern its been in for the last week or so. In doing so it made the technical picture look a lot better. The indices have cleared their 50-day moving averages and have clearly defined patterns of higher highs and higher lows. The Dow (which I pay little attention to) is a notable exception -- it didn't take out its February high. Small caps are leading the way as they're already threatening their 2010 highs. So there was a lot for the bulls to like about today. Volume even surged on the Nasdaq, although it contracted on the S&P 500. I don't really see the lack of volume on the S&P as a big deal given all the positive technical developments today as well as the fact that volume is often on the light side on Mondays. So it seem that we're in for some retests of the January highs in the near future. It will be interesting to see if the smaller cap & Nasdaq stocks can drag the S&P and Dow along for the ride.

Everything's up again...

The latest consumer confidence numbers weighed on the market today. I'm not sure why people were expecting anything good from that data given the (real) unemployment rate though. The Russell 2000 is still above its 50-day moving average but most of the other indices are now sliding away from theirs. I've purposely not mentioned volume much lately but it's worth noting today that volume was higher than most of the rally days since the February bottom. That's clearly a negative in my book. While I'm a bit more bearish than bullish right now I have to acknowledge that the indices are in no-man's land. I say that because the Naz and S&P are between their 50 and 200-day moving averages (longer-term bull, intermediate-term bear) and because they're not showing clear patterns of higher-highs & higher-lows nor lower-highs & lower-lows. So while we may get some trending in very short time-frames, I suspect we'll see a lot of chop in the longer time-frames.

A few downgrades...

My outlook hasn't changed over the last couple of sessions. The market remains extended and short-term overbought and the battle over the 50-day moving averages is still being fought. I can easily see a scenario where the large cap stocks -- the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq-100 are all basically right on their 50 DMAs -- drag down the other indices which have been able to clear their 50 DMAs (Russell 2000, Nasdaq). However, over-eager bears should keep in mind that we could also work off the overbought condition by simply going sideways. So I'd want to see some confirmed follow-through before getting aggressively short here.

No changes

The technical picture was looking a lot better at the close today thanks to the Nasdaq rising above its 50-day moving average and the S&P 500 closing just shy of its 50 DMA. But the Federal Reserve made a surprise move (raising the discount rate) after the market closed which took SPY and QQQQ below their session lows. So we may very well see today's gains wiped out at the open tomorrow. (The timing of the Fed move *almost* makes me wonder if they timed it to coincide with the indices reaching their 50 DMAs.) The market can be really indecisive following any Fed move so I'd be really careful tomorrow, especially on the short side. My guess is that the first reaction in the morning will be to buy the weakness.

Two upgrades today

We got some continuation of last week's strength but I think it's still too soon to sound the all-clear signal. The obvious obstacles for the Nasdaq and S&P are their 50-day moving averages. Let's see if they can follow the Russell 2000, which closed above its 50 DMA today. I suspect it won't be quite as easy for the larger cap averages to accomplish that feat.

One upgrade today

For now, the stock market likes what came out of the EU today with regard to handling the crisis in Greece. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 broke their downtrends which started in mid-January. The S&P 500 stopped just shy of breaking its trendline though. I'm curious to see how much more improvement can be done to the technical landscape right here. The S&P is just a few points away from the bottom of its November-December trading range (~1085). The floor of that range should be solid resistance, so the action there will be important. A break above it should send shorts scrambling, while a drop from that level will likely encourage the bears.

Upgrades to all the short-term trends

The price action was certainly disappointing today but there are a couple of good reasons not to read too much into it. First, volume was really light, so the selling wasn't intense. (That could be taken as a bad thing though, if you're looking for a flushing out of the weak hands.) The other reason is that short-term support put in on Friday's reversal are still intact. That's the obvious place to look for short-term support but on a slightly higher time frame I'm focused on playing the downward sloping channels I've drawn on the charts below. The indices are in the middle of those channels so my motivation to do anything right here is low. But I'm a (short) seller when and if we get back near the tops of those channels.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.