Trader Mike

Note: I have an appointment in the morning so there won’t be watchlist for Monday.

Obviously last week was bad for the bulls. There was a lot of technical damage done on higher than average volume. The usual index charts are below along with a bunch of individual stock charts. Sorry that i couldn’t get to all of the requested charts…

Here’s the Nasdaq chart:

We’ve got a little bit of weakness this morning. Hopefully we can get more volume than yesterday, which was the lowest full-day volume of the year on the NYSE. I’m just looking to play a break of yesterday’s range, up or down.

One stock that I’ll be watching closely is AMD. I like the setup on the daily chart over the last few days. It’s gapping up on an upgrade and a $29 price target from Bear Stearns. Hopefully it can follow-through on the pre-market strength….

Update: Wow, Amtech seems to have a vendetta against Garmin (GRMN) — or maybe they’re just short it. Seems like every other day they’re out with negative comments . They just dropped another one (via Briefing.com):

GRMN Garmin: Serious concerns with the co on a forward going basis - Amtech (46.20 )

Amtech says that while GRMN is the leader in GPS devices and has been a share gainer in P.N.D., they have some serious concerns with the co on a forward going basis. While they think GRMN is a well run co with a respected management, increasing competition in PNDs, expected margin pressure and questionable consumer outlook keeps them concerned. With less than 10% bottom line growth, they say a 15x multiple is fair given this deceleration in earnings growth along with expected margin compression. At 15x their CY07 they arrive at a $32pt, suggesting ~30%+ downside from current levels.

Potential swing trades:

Jerry wanted my thoughts on Garmin Ltd. (GRMN), NutriSystem Inc. (NTRI) and OMNI Energy Services Corp. (Nasdaq: OMNI):

Nick asked me the following about Garmin:

I got burned on the big GRMN fade last week. This week it’s marching forward. Can you offer an insight into how this kind of thing works?

I think that most of what happened was due to their post-earnings conference call. I remember watching the stock get crushed from its pre-market levels during the day. From what I recall it only stabilized after the conference call ended. Conference calls are yet another reason to be careful about trading around earnings — you never know what’s going to be said and/or how the market will react to what’s said. I’ll typically avoid entering stocks while or before their conference calls. …

Here’s an excellent article about some current, and potential future uses of the The Global Positioning System (GPS) - The Sky’s the Limit. Hmmm… I’d better take a second look at Garmin’s stock for my long-term account. Here’s a blurb from the article:

Some 11,000 miles above the earth, 28 satellites beam down data that enables the targeting of locations with once-unthinkable precision. It’s a lethal tool in war — and a killer app for business. The Global Positioning System is transforming everything from auto insurance to agriculture, from hauling freight to trading stocks. Is your business next?