Trader Mike

Update: The line charts I posted yesterday didn’t show the correct highs for these indicators. So I’ve switched to candlestick charts. The difference is that T2116 is not quite at all-time highs yet.

I was just asked to take a look at another Worden indicator, T2116 — Percentage of stocks trading 2 channels below their 40-day moving average:

What with all the sentiment, breadth, volatility measures out of whack and seemingly in uncharted territory thus making their previous reliability skewed, I was wondering if you might comment on another “T” indicator which tracks breadth envelopes (deviations) below the 40 dma. The T2116 measures stocks that trade 2 standard deviations below the 40 dma. Instead of measuring the % …

Maybe this is the thing to do in May — back in May of 2005 I had a post titled “Blame it on the Hedge Funds?” I wrote that after seeing a parade on people on CNBC speculating that some hedge fund(s) had blown up and that was to blame for the market’s woes at that time. Jump to this year and check out what was written in yesterday’s Worden Report:

I’ve never seen anything like this degree of vacillation in the market. Take the behavior of the Russell-3000 for the last five market days (today included). Each day was not just strong or weak — but VERY strong or weak.

Today was very strong with over …

Yesterday’s Worden Report covered a topic that I talked about the other day — the practice of trying to assign reasons to market moves:

The Worden Report (Wednesday, December 8, 2004)

Lambs to the Slaughter

I sometimes wonder how financial news reporting can be a bad as it is and be accepted by the public. For example, a very large Internet Publication, specializing in the stock market, in a bold paragraph leading into today’s market comments, mentions two key factors in today’s market climb. First, the market was paced by Merck. Second, a broker upgrade of GE set a positive tone.

So, I referred to the Merck chart. Of course, I …

Don Worden (of TC2000) mentioned a possible broadening top pattern in the market last week. It’s not a pattern that I look for, or even believe in, but I wanted to post about it anyway. He mentioned it again in yesterday’s report. So here it is, do with it what you will:

The Worden Report (Thursday, October 9, 2003)

Not Without Flaw

The major averages were up, volume was up and breadth was solid in all sectors across the board. Midcaps hit new highs.

But the market ran into selling pressure a bit more than half way through the session. Volume going down in the SP-500 and the …

Yesterday’s Worden Report was too good not to post:

Poison Gas

Blue chips broke rapidly at the gate today, breaking out of patterns that just a day earlier looked sickly and hopeless. This was all on better-than-expected economic news. Later in the day, when it was realized that bonds were plunging, the party broke up. Most of the gains were surrendered at the door on the way out. I suggest you look at the chart of DJCB-X (Corporate Bond Index) to which I have attached a note.
I think it will be a day or two before we can get a good handle on how this will play out. That was a mighty strong rally to collapse like that and …

Well I still don’t want to say too much about the market during this week of so many earnings reports. However, I just saw today’s Worden Report (from the makers of TC2000 ) and thought it was worth posting:

MoneyStream Breaks Below July 1 Low

For the Dow, MoneyStream has now penetrated its July 1 low, rendering the action of the entire month a failure. Today’s and yesterday’s price declines were on increasing volume. This is also true of the SP-500. We must assume that MoneyStream thinks the price will break below the July 1 low. The short-to-intermediate term outlook remains down.
The Nasdaq (COMPQX) is superior to both the Dow and SP-500 in terms of price pattern and …