July 27, 2010 Stock Market Recap

by Michael on July 27, 2010

Well I guess I’m flip-flopping a slight bit. I’ve been viewing the market as range-bound for several weeks but last week I was focused on channels that had a slight downward bias. The indices have since pushed above those channels (in unimpressive fashion) but have not taken out the June highs. Until they can rise above those highs I have to go back to looking at lateral ranges. That change doesn’t make a whole lot of difference to how I’m trading though. I still want to short/sell near the top (June highs) of the range and but near the bottom (July lows). Although with the indices back above their 50-day moving averages I’m less enthusiastic about playing the short side than I was over the last three months.

Trend Table

The trend table looks a lot better than it did last week but I still see the market as range-bound.

Trend Nasdaq S&P 500 Russell 2000
Long-Term Up Up Down
Intermediate Up Up Up
Short-term Up Up Up

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I’m simply using the indices’ relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

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July 19, 2010 Stock Market Recap

by Michael on July 19, 2010

Well, I’m back again. Obviously I’m still in the process of rebuilding the site after this latest crash. I’m still not sure what’s causing these issues so this may happen again. My latest guess is that it has something to do with comments. So, although I hate to do it, I’m going to disable comments and see what happens.

Anyway, I still see the market as range-bound although now I’m leaning toward the channels I’ve drawn on the charts below. They’ve got a slight downward bias as opposed to the lateral ranges I was looking at before. That confirms what the moving averages are telling me — with the indices under their 50 and 200-day moving averages the path of least resistance is down.

Trend Table

No changes from Friday

Trend Nasdaq S&P 500 Russell 2000
Long-Term Down Down Down
Intermediate Down Down Down
Short-term Lat Lat Down

(+) Indicates an upward reclassification today
(-) Indicates a downward reclassification today
Lat Indicates a Lateral trend

*** I’m simply using the indices’ relations to their 200, 50 and 10-day moving averages to tell me the long, intermediate and short-term trends, respectively.

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July 7, 2010 Stock Market Recap

July 7, 2010

So the oversold market has finally produced a bounce that could last all the way through a trading session. That’s very good news for the bulls after yesterday’s less than inspiring action. The indices were able to chew through some key levels today, like 1040 on the S&P 500. All of a sudden, with the [...]

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February 17th Recap: Banking Index at a New All-Time Low

February 17, 2009

The banks and other financial stocks continued to lead the broader market lower. Today the BKX broke to a new all-time(!!) low by dropping below the 1993 low of 24.69. There’s really not much more to say besides “all-time lows” and “the trend is your friend”. The XLF also made a new all-time low today, [...]

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February 13 2009 Stock Market Recap

February 16, 2009

I think (and hope) we’re getting to the point where the market will no longer be focused on TARP & stimulus announcements from the government. On Friday both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq traded at prices they traded at on October 10th, the first major reaction low in autumn. So one could argue that we’ve [...]

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Tight Stops and Risk/Reward Ratios

February 11, 2009

Cameron just left a question for me in the comments to last night’s recap. He asked: I’m looking at your way of thinking about the market. One of the biggest questions I have, though, is regarding your stops. You said you set your stop at just .20 over your short dollar amount. With all of [...]

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February 10 2009 Stock Market Recap

February 10, 2009

Well the plan I laid out last night worked pretty well today. I said I was going to focus on the S&P 500 but I ended up shorting the QQQQ instead. Like I said yesterday, I wanted to wait until after Geithner started speaking at 11 AM before I did anything. Luckily the indices traded [...]

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February 9 2009 Stock Market Recap

February 9, 2009

There’s not much to do now except wait for the market’s reaction to what Obama has to say tonight and what Geithner reveals tomorrow at 11 AM. I almost don’t want to mention the technicals given that we should be driven by the news everybody’s been waiting for. But I do see many setups (NR7s, [...]

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February 5 2009 Stock Market Recap

February 5, 2009

The market had a promising reversal today after a weak open. Even better, the strength came on one of the highest volume days we’ve had in months. Despite those and other positive technical developments, we still need to see some follow through. Tomorrow’s big bad jobs report could provide the needed spark or it could [...]

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February 4 Recap: Rally Fizzles at Resistance

February 4, 2009

Today’s early rally hit the wall right at resistance levels. I suspect the indices will continue to chop around at least through Friday’s jobs report and possibly until whenever the government reveals the stimulus/bad-bank/”bailout 2″ plan. The Nasdaq poked its head above both its 50-day moving average and its downward sloping January trendline but sellers [...]

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