Trader Mike

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

We rallied on better volume today but I'm still not convinced that this is nothing other than a relief rally. The S&P 500 is within striking distance of its 50-day moving average and the top of its November - December trading range. How it deals with that zone should tell us whether this bounce is for real or just a good shorting opportunity.

No changes

Some of you may be interested in the new book "The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It". Here's a short description (as if the title doesn't say it all):

In March 2006, the worldrs"s richest men sipped champagne in an opulent New York hotel. They were preparing to compete in a poker tournament with shy;million-dollar stakes. At the card table that night was Peter Muller, who managed a fabulously successful hedge fund called PDT. With him was Ken Griffin, who was the tough-as-nails head of Citadel Investment Group. There, too, were Cliff Asness, the sharp-tongued, mercurial founder of the hedge fund AQR Capital Management, and Boaz Weinstein, chess "life master" and king of the credit-default swap. Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein were among the best and brightest of a new breed, the quants. Over the past twenty years, this species of math whiz had usurped the testosterone-fueled, kill-or-be-killed risk takers whors"d long been the alpha males of the worldrs"s largest casino. The quants believed that a cocktail of differential calculus, quantum physics, and advanced geometry held the key to reaping riches from the financial markets. And they helped create a digitized money-trading machine that could shift shy;billions around the globe with the click of a mouse. Few realized that night, though, that in creating this extraordinary system, men like Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein had sown the seeds for historyrs"s greatest financial disaster.

You can listen to a discussion about it on yesterday's NPR 'Fresh Air' show. There's also an excerpt of the book posted on that NPR page.

I guess a bounce has to start somewhere and somehow but the way this one is starting isn't very convincing to me. Despite the apparently good fundamental reasons for the rally (good ISM numbers) the volume was much lighter than last week's down days. That makes me think that this was simply an oversold bounce (probably short covering) and there wasn't that much real buying taking place. We'll see if any solid upside momentum develops but for now I'm expecting resistance to kick in after the market works off its oversold condition.

No changes

It's real weak out there right now. Like I said yesterday, things were set up pretty nicely for the bulls but they weren't able to capitalize on the oversold market. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the selling today but all the major indies made new lows for the month. What's worse is they did that on increasing volume. You know I love to harp on poor upside volume. The bulls cannot be happy with the volume action recently. Heck, looking back at the S&P chart upside volume has been mostly suspect since at least July. That's going to make it tricky to find areas of strong support. On the bright side though, T2108 is at 33 now. Another bad day or two and it will be sub-20 which is usually a buy signal.

Reversed the two upgrades from yesterday...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've written about resistance from the Nasdaq's 50-day moving average and it's still capping the index. With the market as oversold as it is the bulls should be able to clear that resistance. If they can't make that happen this week I'll take that as a very bad sign.

The price action on the S&P 500 is similar to the Naz although it's not as close to its 50-day moving average. It touched the bottom of the November - December trading range today and was able to bounce. The next hurdle for the bulls is to take out this week's high. BUt I can't get excited about the prospects here as long as its within that old trading range.

Two upgrades as 50-day moving averages got approached or crossed today.

Today we got a respite from the last three days of selling. As has been so often the case lately, the volume was less than the downside volume over the previous two sessions. So that's not very comforting for those who want the market to bounce. That could just be typical Monday action though although I suspect that people are also holding back a bit ahead of the State of the Union address and maybe even Friday's GDP number. One thing is for sure though, the market feels different than it has in several months. A lot of optimism for an economic recovery is already (and still) priced in to the market but there's still plenty that could go wrong. (Concern over Bernanke's reappointment shows that.) Perhaps that's just the same old wall of worry for the market to climb though.

From a technical standpoint, I want to lean against the 50-day moving averages of the indices. As long as the indices are below those averages I'm more apt to look for shorting opportunities. I'm not saying that I would be initiating shorts right now -- the market is too oversold for me to be comfortable doing that. But if we get a couple more days of relatively light volume rallies I'd look to short those.

no changes

I'm always saying that the low volume moves (usually rallies) don't matter until they do. Well we're finally seeing the unwinding of the light volume rally that took place over the holidays. Today we had the highest volume in about a month. So the technical picture is starting to get some cracks in it. The Dow broke its 50-day moving average today and is back below its November highs. The S&P is real close to following suit. It closed just above its 50-day and is in danger of giving back its December (low volume) breakout to new highs. I'd caution the bears not to get too excited though. We've seen plenty of pullbacks like this over the last several months which only turned out to be buying opportunities. The battle for control of the 50-day moving average should tell us if this is anothe buying opportunity or the start of a real top.

The Nasdaq is in a little better shape but it may be under pressure tomorrow given the after-hours action in the QQQ after Google's earnings. It may very well end up in the same position that the S&P is in -- right near the 50 DMA and the November highs. That would wipe out all of the late December, low volume rally.

Here's a GOOG chart which doesn't show the after-hours losses. It's been a rough January for the stock. First it had a sell-the-news reaction to the Nexus One phone, then China issues weighed on it and now it's earnings. People have been on CNBC defending it all the way down and they did so tonight as well. I remain unconvinced. I want to see it show some strength before I become an interested buyer. I don't see any significant support before the 500 level, so I see no reason to be in a rush to buy it here.

One downgrade today

This is the beginning of tonight's Worden Report (emphasis is mine):

A Freakish Situation

The market, freakishly, is in a situation markedly similar to what we had yesterday. Today we have a weak market following a very strong market. Yesterday we had a strong market following a very weak day.

Until this market shows the ability to put some kind of a trend together for just a few days, there is no point in trying to put a forecast together. The only rational way to handle it is to treat it like what it is--a waiting game.

Today's trading stats were strictly negative. All Ten Important Averages were down, as a group averaging -1.17%.  This compares to +1.33% yesterday and -1.09% the day before.

Today all 16 of the Breadth Groupings were Negative: 14 Super-Decisively and two Decisively. Yesterday all 16 were Super-Decisively Positive. The market day before that all 16 were Super-Decisively Negative. That's downright outlandish.

Can you feel his frustration? I've been sidelined the last few days (while switching brokers) but the action has even been maddening to me. I just *knew* the indices were going to break down today, especially with the dollar surging but they held support. Some chop is to be expected during earnings season -- especially the down one day, up the next day kind of chop. That's why I used to take the heavy earnings weeks off when I was swing trading. Days that gapped back & forth like the last few days used to drive me crazy when I was holding positions overnight. Based on the post-market action I think we're in for another reversal tomorrow. So Worden is right, this is just something you just have to wait out unless you're operating on a low enough time frame to take advantage of the intraday back & forth.

It seems that I'm always harping about (relatively) poor upside volume and I'm doing it again. The volume action, especially on the Nasdaq, has been poor. That's why I was really surprised to see support hold today. Until I see some higher volume up days I have to believe that we're building a top.

Well we're a little deeper into earnings season and things are looking better than they did on Tuesday. But I think it's still too early to draw any conclusions despite the new 52-week high made by the S&P 500 today. I'm also not thrilled with the upside volume after Tuesday's distribution day. Perhaps we'll get some better volume and price direction next week when earnings reports really start to pour in.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

We rallied on better volume today but I'm still not convinced that this is nothing other than a relief rally. The S&P 500 is within striking distance of its 50-day moving average and the top of its November - December trading range. How it deals with that zone should tell us whether this bounce is for real or just a good shorting opportunity.

No changes

Some of you may be interested in the new book "The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It". Here's a short description (as if the title doesn't say it all):

In March 2006, the worldrs"s richest men sipped champagne in an opulent New York hotel. They were preparing to compete in a poker tournament with shy;million-dollar stakes. At the card table that night was Peter Muller, who managed a fabulously successful hedge fund called PDT. With him was Ken Griffin, who was the tough-as-nails head of Citadel Investment Group. There, too, were Cliff Asness, the sharp-tongued, mercurial founder of the hedge fund AQR Capital Management, and Boaz Weinstein, chess "life master" and king of the credit-default swap. Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein were among the best and brightest of a new breed, the quants. Over the past twenty years, this species of math whiz had usurped the testosterone-fueled, kill-or-be-killed risk takers whors"d long been the alpha males of the worldrs"s largest casino. The quants believed that a cocktail of differential calculus, quantum physics, and advanced geometry held the key to reaping riches from the financial markets. And they helped create a digitized money-trading machine that could shift shy;billions around the globe with the click of a mouse. Few realized that night, though, that in creating this extraordinary system, men like Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein had sown the seeds for historyrs"s greatest financial disaster.

You can listen to a discussion about it on yesterday's NPR 'Fresh Air' show. There's also an excerpt of the book posted on that NPR page.

I guess a bounce has to start somewhere and somehow but the way this one is starting isn't very convincing to me. Despite the apparently good fundamental reasons for the rally (good ISM numbers) the volume was much lighter than last week's down days. That makes me think that this was simply an oversold bounce (probably short covering) and there wasn't that much real buying taking place. We'll see if any solid upside momentum develops but for now I'm expecting resistance to kick in after the market works off its oversold condition.

No changes

It's real weak out there right now. Like I said yesterday, things were set up pretty nicely for the bulls but they weren't able to capitalize on the oversold market. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the selling today but all the major indies made new lows for the month. What's worse is they did that on increasing volume. You know I love to harp on poor upside volume. The bulls cannot be happy with the volume action recently. Heck, looking back at the S&P chart upside volume has been mostly suspect since at least July. That's going to make it tricky to find areas of strong support. On the bright side though, T2108 is at 33 now. Another bad day or two and it will be sub-20 which is usually a buy signal.

Reversed the two upgrades from yesterday...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've written about resistance from the Nasdaq's 50-day moving average and it's still capping the index. With the market as oversold as it is the bulls should be able to clear that resistance. If they can't make that happen this week I'll take that as a very bad sign.

The price action on the S&P 500 is similar to the Naz although it's not as close to its 50-day moving average. It touched the bottom of the November - December trading range today and was able to bounce. The next hurdle for the bulls is to take out this week's high. BUt I can't get excited about the prospects here as long as its within that old trading range.

Two upgrades as 50-day moving averages got approached or crossed today.

Today we got a respite from the last three days of selling. As has been so often the case lately, the volume was less than the downside volume over the previous two sessions. So that's not very comforting for those who want the market to bounce. That could just be typical Monday action though although I suspect that people are also holding back a bit ahead of the State of the Union address and maybe even Friday's GDP number. One thing is for sure though, the market feels different than it has in several months. A lot of optimism for an economic recovery is already (and still) priced in to the market but there's still plenty that could go wrong. (Concern over Bernanke's reappointment shows that.) Perhaps that's just the same old wall of worry for the market to climb though.

From a technical standpoint, I want to lean against the 50-day moving averages of the indices. As long as the indices are below those averages I'm more apt to look for shorting opportunities. I'm not saying that I would be initiating shorts right now -- the market is too oversold for me to be comfortable doing that. But if we get a couple more days of relatively light volume rallies I'd look to short those.

no changes

I'm always saying that the low volume moves (usually rallies) don't matter until they do. Well we're finally seeing the unwinding of the light volume rally that took place over the holidays. Today we had the highest volume in about a month. So the technical picture is starting to get some cracks in it. The Dow broke its 50-day moving average today and is back below its November highs. The S&P is real close to following suit. It closed just above its 50-day and is in danger of giving back its December (low volume) breakout to new highs. I'd caution the bears not to get too excited though. We've seen plenty of pullbacks like this over the last several months which only turned out to be buying opportunities. The battle for control of the 50-day moving average should tell us if this is anothe buying opportunity or the start of a real top.

The Nasdaq is in a little better shape but it may be under pressure tomorrow given the after-hours action in the QQQ after Google's earnings. It may very well end up in the same position that the S&P is in -- right near the 50 DMA and the November highs. That would wipe out all of the late December, low volume rally.

Here's a GOOG chart which doesn't show the after-hours losses. It's been a rough January for the stock. First it had a sell-the-news reaction to the Nexus One phone, then China issues weighed on it and now it's earnings. People have been on CNBC defending it all the way down and they did so tonight as well. I remain unconvinced. I want to see it show some strength before I become an interested buyer. I don't see any significant support before the 500 level, so I see no reason to be in a rush to buy it here.

One downgrade today

This is the beginning of tonight's Worden Report (emphasis is mine):

A Freakish Situation

The market, freakishly, is in a situation markedly similar to what we had yesterday. Today we have a weak market following a very strong market. Yesterday we had a strong market following a very weak day.

Until this market shows the ability to put some kind of a trend together for just a few days, there is no point in trying to put a forecast together. The only rational way to handle it is to treat it like what it is--a waiting game.

Today's trading stats were strictly negative. All Ten Important Averages were down, as a group averaging -1.17%.  This compares to +1.33% yesterday and -1.09% the day before.

Today all 16 of the Breadth Groupings were Negative: 14 Super-Decisively and two Decisively. Yesterday all 16 were Super-Decisively Positive. The market day before that all 16 were Super-Decisively Negative. That's downright outlandish.

Can you feel his frustration? I've been sidelined the last few days (while switching brokers) but the action has even been maddening to me. I just *knew* the indices were going to break down today, especially with the dollar surging but they held support. Some chop is to be expected during earnings season -- especially the down one day, up the next day kind of chop. That's why I used to take the heavy earnings weeks off when I was swing trading. Days that gapped back & forth like the last few days used to drive me crazy when I was holding positions overnight. Based on the post-market action I think we're in for another reversal tomorrow. So Worden is right, this is just something you just have to wait out unless you're operating on a low enough time frame to take advantage of the intraday back & forth.

It seems that I'm always harping about (relatively) poor upside volume and I'm doing it again. The volume action, especially on the Nasdaq, has been poor. That's why I was really surprised to see support hold today. Until I see some higher volume up days I have to believe that we're building a top.

Well we're a little deeper into earnings season and things are looking better than they did on Tuesday. But I think it's still too early to draw any conclusions despite the new 52-week high made by the S&P 500 today. I'm also not thrilled with the upside volume after Tuesday's distribution day. Perhaps we'll get some better volume and price direction next week when earnings reports really start to pour in.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

We rallied on better volume today but I'm still not convinced that this is nothing other than a relief rally. The S&P 500 is within striking distance of its 50-day moving average and the top of its November - December trading range. How it deals with that zone should tell us whether this bounce is for real or just a good shorting opportunity.

No changes

Some of you may be interested in the new book "The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It". Here's a short description (as if the title doesn't say it all):

In March 2006, the worldrs"s richest men sipped champagne in an opulent New York hotel. They were preparing to compete in a poker tournament with shy;million-dollar stakes. At the card table that night was Peter Muller, who managed a fabulously successful hedge fund called PDT. With him was Ken Griffin, who was the tough-as-nails head of Citadel Investment Group. There, too, were Cliff Asness, the sharp-tongued, mercurial founder of the hedge fund AQR Capital Management, and Boaz Weinstein, chess "life master" and king of the credit-default swap. Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein were among the best and brightest of a new breed, the quants. Over the past twenty years, this species of math whiz had usurped the testosterone-fueled, kill-or-be-killed risk takers whors"d long been the alpha males of the worldrs"s largest casino. The quants believed that a cocktail of differential calculus, quantum physics, and advanced geometry held the key to reaping riches from the financial markets. And they helped create a digitized money-trading machine that could shift shy;billions around the globe with the click of a mouse. Few realized that night, though, that in creating this extraordinary system, men like Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein had sown the seeds for historyrs"s greatest financial disaster.

You can listen to a discussion about it on yesterday's NPR 'Fresh Air' show. There's also an excerpt of the book posted on that NPR page.

I guess a bounce has to start somewhere and somehow but the way this one is starting isn't very convincing to me. Despite the apparently good fundamental reasons for the rally (good ISM numbers) the volume was much lighter than last week's down days. That makes me think that this was simply an oversold bounce (probably short covering) and there wasn't that much real buying taking place. We'll see if any solid upside momentum develops but for now I'm expecting resistance to kick in after the market works off its oversold condition.

No changes

It's real weak out there right now. Like I said yesterday, things were set up pretty nicely for the bulls but they weren't able to capitalize on the oversold market. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the selling today but all the major indies made new lows for the month. What's worse is they did that on increasing volume. You know I love to harp on poor upside volume. The bulls cannot be happy with the volume action recently. Heck, looking back at the S&P chart upside volume has been mostly suspect since at least July. That's going to make it tricky to find areas of strong support. On the bright side though, T2108 is at 33 now. Another bad day or two and it will be sub-20 which is usually a buy signal.

Reversed the two upgrades from yesterday...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've written about resistance from the Nasdaq's 50-day moving average and it's still capping the index. With the market as oversold as it is the bulls should be able to clear that resistance. If they can't make that happen this week I'll take that as a very bad sign.

The price action on the S&P 500 is similar to the Naz although it's not as close to its 50-day moving average. It touched the bottom of the November - December trading range today and was able to bounce. The next hurdle for the bulls is to take out this week's high. BUt I can't get excited about the prospects here as long as its within that old trading range.

Two upgrades as 50-day moving averages got approached or crossed today.

Today we got a respite from the last three days of selling. As has been so often the case lately, the volume was less than the downside volume over the previous two sessions. So that's not very comforting for those who want the market to bounce. That could just be typical Monday action though although I suspect that people are also holding back a bit ahead of the State of the Union address and maybe even Friday's GDP number. One thing is for sure though, the market feels different than it has in several months. A lot of optimism for an economic recovery is already (and still) priced in to the market but there's still plenty that could go wrong. (Concern over Bernanke's reappointment shows that.) Perhaps that's just the same old wall of worry for the market to climb though.

From a technical standpoint, I want to lean against the 50-day moving averages of the indices. As long as the indices are below those averages I'm more apt to look for shorting opportunities. I'm not saying that I would be initiating shorts right now -- the market is too oversold for me to be comfortable doing that. But if we get a couple more days of relatively light volume rallies I'd look to short those.

no changes

I'm always saying that the low volume moves (usually rallies) don't matter until they do. Well we're finally seeing the unwinding of the light volume rally that took place over the holidays. Today we had the highest volume in about a month. So the technical picture is starting to get some cracks in it. The Dow broke its 50-day moving average today and is back below its November highs. The S&P is real close to following suit. It closed just above its 50-day and is in danger of giving back its December (low volume) breakout to new highs. I'd caution the bears not to get too excited though. We've seen plenty of pullbacks like this over the last several months which only turned out to be buying opportunities. The battle for control of the 50-day moving average should tell us if this is anothe buying opportunity or the start of a real top.

The Nasdaq is in a little better shape but it may be under pressure tomorrow given the after-hours action in the QQQ after Google's earnings. It may very well end up in the same position that the S&P is in -- right near the 50 DMA and the November highs. That would wipe out all of the late December, low volume rally.

Here's a GOOG chart which doesn't show the after-hours losses. It's been a rough January for the stock. First it had a sell-the-news reaction to the Nexus One phone, then China issues weighed on it and now it's earnings. People have been on CNBC defending it all the way down and they did so tonight as well. I remain unconvinced. I want to see it show some strength before I become an interested buyer. I don't see any significant support before the 500 level, so I see no reason to be in a rush to buy it here.

One downgrade today

This is the beginning of tonight's Worden Report (emphasis is mine):

A Freakish Situation

The market, freakishly, is in a situation markedly similar to what we had yesterday. Today we have a weak market following a very strong market. Yesterday we had a strong market following a very weak day.

Until this market shows the ability to put some kind of a trend together for just a few days, there is no point in trying to put a forecast together. The only rational way to handle it is to treat it like what it is--a waiting game.

Today's trading stats were strictly negative. All Ten Important Averages were down, as a group averaging -1.17%.  This compares to +1.33% yesterday and -1.09% the day before.

Today all 16 of the Breadth Groupings were Negative: 14 Super-Decisively and two Decisively. Yesterday all 16 were Super-Decisively Positive. The market day before that all 16 were Super-Decisively Negative. That's downright outlandish.

Can you feel his frustration? I've been sidelined the last few days (while switching brokers) but the action has even been maddening to me. I just *knew* the indices were going to break down today, especially with the dollar surging but they held support. Some chop is to be expected during earnings season -- especially the down one day, up the next day kind of chop. That's why I used to take the heavy earnings weeks off when I was swing trading. Days that gapped back & forth like the last few days used to drive me crazy when I was holding positions overnight. Based on the post-market action I think we're in for another reversal tomorrow. So Worden is right, this is just something you just have to wait out unless you're operating on a low enough time frame to take advantage of the intraday back & forth.

It seems that I'm always harping about (relatively) poor upside volume and I'm doing it again. The volume action, especially on the Nasdaq, has been poor. That's why I was really surprised to see support hold today. Until I see some higher volume up days I have to believe that we're building a top.

Well we're a little deeper into earnings season and things are looking better than they did on Tuesday. But I think it's still too early to draw any conclusions despite the new 52-week high made by the S&P 500 today. I'm also not thrilled with the upside volume after Tuesday's distribution day. Perhaps we'll get some better volume and price direction next week when earnings reports really start to pour in.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

We rallied on better volume today but I'm still not convinced that this is nothing other than a relief rally. The S&P 500 is within striking distance of its 50-day moving average and the top of its November - December trading range. How it deals with that zone should tell us whether this bounce is for real or just a good shorting opportunity.

No changes

Some of you may be interested in the new book "The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It". Here's a short description (as if the title doesn't say it all):

In March 2006, the worldrs"s richest men sipped champagne in an opulent New York hotel. They were preparing to compete in a poker tournament with shy;million-dollar stakes. At the card table that night was Peter Muller, who managed a fabulously successful hedge fund called PDT. With him was Ken Griffin, who was the tough-as-nails head of Citadel Investment Group. There, too, were Cliff Asness, the sharp-tongued, mercurial founder of the hedge fund AQR Capital Management, and Boaz Weinstein, chess "life master" and king of the credit-default swap. Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein were among the best and brightest of a new breed, the quants. Over the past twenty years, this species of math whiz had usurped the testosterone-fueled, kill-or-be-killed risk takers whors"d long been the alpha males of the worldrs"s largest casino. The quants believed that a cocktail of differential calculus, quantum physics, and advanced geometry held the key to reaping riches from the financial markets. And they helped create a digitized money-trading machine that could shift shy;billions around the globe with the click of a mouse. Few realized that night, though, that in creating this extraordinary system, men like Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein had sown the seeds for historyrs"s greatest financial disaster.

You can listen to a discussion about it on yesterday's NPR 'Fresh Air' show. There's also an excerpt of the book posted on that NPR page.

I guess a bounce has to start somewhere and somehow but the way this one is starting isn't very convincing to me. Despite the apparently good fundamental reasons for the rally (good ISM numbers) the volume was much lighter than last week's down days. That makes me think that this was simply an oversold bounce (probably short covering) and there wasn't that much real buying taking place. We'll see if any solid upside momentum develops but for now I'm expecting resistance to kick in after the market works off its oversold condition.

No changes

It's real weak out there right now. Like I said yesterday, things were set up pretty nicely for the bulls but they weren't able to capitalize on the oversold market. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the selling today but all the major indies made new lows for the month. What's worse is they did that on increasing volume. You know I love to harp on poor upside volume. The bulls cannot be happy with the volume action recently. Heck, looking back at the S&P chart upside volume has been mostly suspect since at least July. That's going to make it tricky to find areas of strong support. On the bright side though, T2108 is at 33 now. Another bad day or two and it will be sub-20 which is usually a buy signal.

Reversed the two upgrades from yesterday...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've written about resistance from the Nasdaq's 50-day moving average and it's still capping the index. With the market as oversold as it is the bulls should be able to clear that resistance. If they can't make that happen this week I'll take that as a very bad sign.

The price action on the S&P 500 is similar to the Naz although it's not as close to its 50-day moving average. It touched the bottom of the November - December trading range today and was able to bounce. The next hurdle for the bulls is to take out this week's high. BUt I can't get excited about the prospects here as long as its within that old trading range.

Two upgrades as 50-day moving averages got approached or crossed today.

Today we got a respite from the last three days of selling. As has been so often the case lately, the volume was less than the downside volume over the previous two sessions. So that's not very comforting for those who want the market to bounce. That could just be typical Monday action though although I suspect that people are also holding back a bit ahead of the State of the Union address and maybe even Friday's GDP number. One thing is for sure though, the market feels different than it has in several months. A lot of optimism for an economic recovery is already (and still) priced in to the market but there's still plenty that could go wrong. (Concern over Bernanke's reappointment shows that.) Perhaps that's just the same old wall of worry for the market to climb though.

From a technical standpoint, I want to lean against the 50-day moving averages of the indices. As long as the indices are below those averages I'm more apt to look for shorting opportunities. I'm not saying that I would be initiating shorts right now -- the market is too oversold for me to be comfortable doing that. But if we get a couple more days of relatively light volume rallies I'd look to short those.

no changes

I'm always saying that the low volume moves (usually rallies) don't matter until they do. Well we're finally seeing the unwinding of the light volume rally that took place over the holidays. Today we had the highest volume in about a month. So the technical picture is starting to get some cracks in it. The Dow broke its 50-day moving average today and is back below its November highs. The S&P is real close to following suit. It closed just above its 50-day and is in danger of giving back its December (low volume) breakout to new highs. I'd caution the bears not to get too excited though. We've seen plenty of pullbacks like this over the last several months which only turned out to be buying opportunities. The battle for control of the 50-day moving average should tell us if this is anothe buying opportunity or the start of a real top.

The Nasdaq is in a little better shape but it may be under pressure tomorrow given the after-hours action in the QQQ after Google's earnings. It may very well end up in the same position that the S&P is in -- right near the 50 DMA and the November highs. That would wipe out all of the late December, low volume rally.

Here's a GOOG chart which doesn't show the after-hours losses. It's been a rough January for the stock. First it had a sell-the-news reaction to the Nexus One phone, then China issues weighed on it and now it's earnings. People have been on CNBC defending it all the way down and they did so tonight as well. I remain unconvinced. I want to see it show some strength before I become an interested buyer. I don't see any significant support before the 500 level, so I see no reason to be in a rush to buy it here.

One downgrade today

This is the beginning of tonight's Worden Report (emphasis is mine):

A Freakish Situation

The market, freakishly, is in a situation markedly similar to what we had yesterday. Today we have a weak market following a very strong market. Yesterday we had a strong market following a very weak day.

Until this market shows the ability to put some kind of a trend together for just a few days, there is no point in trying to put a forecast together. The only rational way to handle it is to treat it like what it is--a waiting game.

Today's trading stats were strictly negative. All Ten Important Averages were down, as a group averaging -1.17%.  This compares to +1.33% yesterday and -1.09% the day before.

Today all 16 of the Breadth Groupings were Negative: 14 Super-Decisively and two Decisively. Yesterday all 16 were Super-Decisively Positive. The market day before that all 16 were Super-Decisively Negative. That's downright outlandish.

Can you feel his frustration? I've been sidelined the last few days (while switching brokers) but the action has even been maddening to me. I just *knew* the indices were going to break down today, especially with the dollar surging but they held support. Some chop is to be expected during earnings season -- especially the down one day, up the next day kind of chop. That's why I used to take the heavy earnings weeks off when I was swing trading. Days that gapped back & forth like the last few days used to drive me crazy when I was holding positions overnight. Based on the post-market action I think we're in for another reversal tomorrow. So Worden is right, this is just something you just have to wait out unless you're operating on a low enough time frame to take advantage of the intraday back & forth.

It seems that I'm always harping about (relatively) poor upside volume and I'm doing it again. The volume action, especially on the Nasdaq, has been poor. That's why I was really surprised to see support hold today. Until I see some higher volume up days I have to believe that we're building a top.

Well we're a little deeper into earnings season and things are looking better than they did on Tuesday. But I think it's still too early to draw any conclusions despite the new 52-week high made by the S&P 500 today. I'm also not thrilled with the upside volume after Tuesday's distribution day. Perhaps we'll get some better volume and price direction next week when earnings reports really start to pour in.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

We rallied on better volume today but I'm still not convinced that this is nothing other than a relief rally. The S&P 500 is within striking distance of its 50-day moving average and the top of its November - December trading range. How it deals with that zone should tell us whether this bounce is for real or just a good shorting opportunity.

No changes

Some of you may be interested in the new book "The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It". Here's a short description (as if the title doesn't say it all):

In March 2006, the worldrs"s richest men sipped champagne in an opulent New York hotel. They were preparing to compete in a poker tournament with shy;million-dollar stakes. At the card table that night was Peter Muller, who managed a fabulously successful hedge fund called PDT. With him was Ken Griffin, who was the tough-as-nails head of Citadel Investment Group. There, too, were Cliff Asness, the sharp-tongued, mercurial founder of the hedge fund AQR Capital Management, and Boaz Weinstein, chess "life master" and king of the credit-default swap. Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein were among the best and brightest of a new breed, the quants. Over the past twenty years, this species of math whiz had usurped the testosterone-fueled, kill-or-be-killed risk takers whors"d long been the alpha males of the worldrs"s largest casino. The quants believed that a cocktail of differential calculus, quantum physics, and advanced geometry held the key to reaping riches from the financial markets. And they helped create a digitized money-trading machine that could shift shy;billions around the globe with the click of a mouse. Few realized that night, though, that in creating this extraordinary system, men like Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein had sown the seeds for historyrs"s greatest financial disaster.

You can listen to a discussion about it on yesterday's NPR 'Fresh Air' show. There's also an excerpt of the book posted on that NPR page.

I guess a bounce has to start somewhere and somehow but the way this one is starting isn't very convincing to me. Despite the apparently good fundamental reasons for the rally (good ISM numbers) the volume was much lighter than last week's down days. That makes me think that this was simply an oversold bounce (probably short covering) and there wasn't that much real buying taking place. We'll see if any solid upside momentum develops but for now I'm expecting resistance to kick in after the market works off its oversold condition.

No changes

It's real weak out there right now. Like I said yesterday, things were set up pretty nicely for the bulls but they weren't able to capitalize on the oversold market. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the selling today but all the major indies made new lows for the month. What's worse is they did that on increasing volume. You know I love to harp on poor upside volume. The bulls cannot be happy with the volume action recently. Heck, looking back at the S&P chart upside volume has been mostly suspect since at least July. That's going to make it tricky to find areas of strong support. On the bright side though, T2108 is at 33 now. Another bad day or two and it will be sub-20 which is usually a buy signal.

Reversed the two upgrades from yesterday...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've written about resistance from the Nasdaq's 50-day moving average and it's still capping the index. With the market as oversold as it is the bulls should be able to clear that resistance. If they can't make that happen this week I'll take that as a very bad sign.

The price action on the S&P 500 is similar to the Naz although it's not as close to its 50-day moving average. It touched the bottom of the November - December trading range today and was able to bounce. The next hurdle for the bulls is to take out this week's high. BUt I can't get excited about the prospects here as long as its within that old trading range.

Two upgrades as 50-day moving averages got approached or crossed today.

Today we got a respite from the last three days of selling. As has been so often the case lately, the volume was less than the downside volume over the previous two sessions. So that's not very comforting for those who want the market to bounce. That could just be typical Monday action though although I suspect that people are also holding back a bit ahead of the State of the Union address and maybe even Friday's GDP number. One thing is for sure though, the market feels different than it has in several months. A lot of optimism for an economic recovery is already (and still) priced in to the market but there's still plenty that could go wrong. (Concern over Bernanke's reappointment shows that.) Perhaps that's just the same old wall of worry for the market to climb though.

From a technical standpoint, I want to lean against the 50-day moving averages of the indices. As long as the indices are below those averages I'm more apt to look for shorting opportunities. I'm not saying that I would be initiating shorts right now -- the market is too oversold for me to be comfortable doing that. But if we get a couple more days of relatively light volume rallies I'd look to short those.

no changes

I'm always saying that the low volume moves (usually rallies) don't matter until they do. Well we're finally seeing the unwinding of the light volume rally that took place over the holidays. Today we had the highest volume in about a month. So the technical picture is starting to get some cracks in it. The Dow broke its 50-day moving average today and is back below its November highs. The S&P is real close to following suit. It closed just above its 50-day and is in danger of giving back its December (low volume) breakout to new highs. I'd caution the bears not to get too excited though. We've seen plenty of pullbacks like this over the last several months which only turned out to be buying opportunities. The battle for control of the 50-day moving average should tell us if this is anothe buying opportunity or the start of a real top.

The Nasdaq is in a little better shape but it may be under pressure tomorrow given the after-hours action in the QQQ after Google's earnings. It may very well end up in the same position that the S&P is in -- right near the 50 DMA and the November highs. That would wipe out all of the late December, low volume rally.

Here's a GOOG chart which doesn't show the after-hours losses. It's been a rough January for the stock. First it had a sell-the-news reaction to the Nexus One phone, then China issues weighed on it and now it's earnings. People have been on CNBC defending it all the way down and they did so tonight as well. I remain unconvinced. I want to see it show some strength before I become an interested buyer. I don't see any significant support before the 500 level, so I see no reason to be in a rush to buy it here.

One downgrade today

This is the beginning of tonight's Worden Report (emphasis is mine):

A Freakish Situation

The market, freakishly, is in a situation markedly similar to what we had yesterday. Today we have a weak market following a very strong market. Yesterday we had a strong market following a very weak day.

Until this market shows the ability to put some kind of a trend together for just a few days, there is no point in trying to put a forecast together. The only rational way to handle it is to treat it like what it is--a waiting game.

Today's trading stats were strictly negative. All Ten Important Averages were down, as a group averaging -1.17%.  This compares to +1.33% yesterday and -1.09% the day before.

Today all 16 of the Breadth Groupings were Negative: 14 Super-Decisively and two Decisively. Yesterday all 16 were Super-Decisively Positive. The market day before that all 16 were Super-Decisively Negative. That's downright outlandish.

Can you feel his frustration? I've been sidelined the last few days (while switching brokers) but the action has even been maddening to me. I just *knew* the indices were going to break down today, especially with the dollar surging but they held support. Some chop is to be expected during earnings season -- especially the down one day, up the next day kind of chop. That's why I used to take the heavy earnings weeks off when I was swing trading. Days that gapped back & forth like the last few days used to drive me crazy when I was holding positions overnight. Based on the post-market action I think we're in for another reversal tomorrow. So Worden is right, this is just something you just have to wait out unless you're operating on a low enough time frame to take advantage of the intraday back & forth.

It seems that I'm always harping about (relatively) poor upside volume and I'm doing it again. The volume action, especially on the Nasdaq, has been poor. That's why I was really surprised to see support hold today. Until I see some higher volume up days I have to believe that we're building a top.

Well we're a little deeper into earnings season and things are looking better than they did on Tuesday. But I think it's still too early to draw any conclusions despite the new 52-week high made by the S&P 500 today. I'm also not thrilled with the upside volume after Tuesday's distribution day. Perhaps we'll get some better volume and price direction next week when earnings reports really start to pour in.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

We rallied on better volume today but I'm still not convinced that this is nothing other than a relief rally. The S&P 500 is within striking distance of its 50-day moving average and the top of its November - December trading range. How it deals with that zone should tell us whether this bounce is for real or just a good shorting opportunity.

No changes

Some of you may be interested in the new book "The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It". Here's a short description (as if the title doesn't say it all):

In March 2006, the worldrs"s richest men sipped champagne in an opulent New York hotel. They were preparing to compete in a poker tournament with shy;million-dollar stakes. At the card table that night was Peter Muller, who managed a fabulously successful hedge fund called PDT. With him was Ken Griffin, who was the tough-as-nails head of Citadel Investment Group. There, too, were Cliff Asness, the sharp-tongued, mercurial founder of the hedge fund AQR Capital Management, and Boaz Weinstein, chess "life master" and king of the credit-default swap. Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein were among the best and brightest of a new breed, the quants. Over the past twenty years, this species of math whiz had usurped the testosterone-fueled, kill-or-be-killed risk takers whors"d long been the alpha males of the worldrs"s largest casino. The quants believed that a cocktail of differential calculus, quantum physics, and advanced geometry held the key to reaping riches from the financial markets. And they helped create a digitized money-trading machine that could shift shy;billions around the globe with the click of a mouse. Few realized that night, though, that in creating this extraordinary system, men like Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein had sown the seeds for historyrs"s greatest financial disaster.

You can listen to a discussion about it on yesterday's NPR 'Fresh Air' show. There's also an excerpt of the book posted on that NPR page.

I guess a bounce has to start somewhere and somehow but the way this one is starting isn't very convincing to me. Despite the apparently good fundamental reasons for the rally (good ISM numbers) the volume was much lighter than last week's down days. That makes me think that this was simply an oversold bounce (probably short covering) and there wasn't that much real buying taking place. We'll see if any solid upside momentum develops but for now I'm expecting resistance to kick in after the market works off its oversold condition.

No changes

It's real weak out there right now. Like I said yesterday, things were set up pretty nicely for the bulls but they weren't able to capitalize on the oversold market. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the selling today but all the major indies made new lows for the month. What's worse is they did that on increasing volume. You know I love to harp on poor upside volume. The bulls cannot be happy with the volume action recently. Heck, looking back at the S&P chart upside volume has been mostly suspect since at least July. That's going to make it tricky to find areas of strong support. On the bright side though, T2108 is at 33 now. Another bad day or two and it will be sub-20 which is usually a buy signal.

Reversed the two upgrades from yesterday...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've written about resistance from the Nasdaq's 50-day moving average and it's still capping the index. With the market as oversold as it is the bulls should be able to clear that resistance. If they can't make that happen this week I'll take that as a very bad sign.

The price action on the S&P 500 is similar to the Naz although it's not as close to its 50-day moving average. It touched the bottom of the November - December trading range today and was able to bounce. The next hurdle for the bulls is to take out this week's high. BUt I can't get excited about the prospects here as long as its within that old trading range.

Two upgrades as 50-day moving averages got approached or crossed today.

Today we got a respite from the last three days of selling. As has been so often the case lately, the volume was less than the downside volume over the previous two sessions. So that's not very comforting for those who want the market to bounce. That could just be typical Monday action though although I suspect that people are also holding back a bit ahead of the State of the Union address and maybe even Friday's GDP number. One thing is for sure though, the market feels different than it has in several months. A lot of optimism for an economic recovery is already (and still) priced in to the market but there's still plenty that could go wrong. (Concern over Bernanke's reappointment shows that.) Perhaps that's just the same old wall of worry for the market to climb though.

From a technical standpoint, I want to lean against the 50-day moving averages of the indices. As long as the indices are below those averages I'm more apt to look for shorting opportunities. I'm not saying that I would be initiating shorts right now -- the market is too oversold for me to be comfortable doing that. But if we get a couple more days of relatively light volume rallies I'd look to short those.

no changes

I'm always saying that the low volume moves (usually rallies) don't matter until they do. Well we're finally seeing the unwinding of the light volume rally that took place over the holidays. Today we had the highest volume in about a month. So the technical picture is starting to get some cracks in it. The Dow broke its 50-day moving average today and is back below its November highs. The S&P is real close to following suit. It closed just above its 50-day and is in danger of giving back its December (low volume) breakout to new highs. I'd caution the bears not to get too excited though. We've seen plenty of pullbacks like this over the last several months which only turned out to be buying opportunities. The battle for control of the 50-day moving average should tell us if this is anothe buying opportunity or the start of a real top.

The Nasdaq is in a little better shape but it may be under pressure tomorrow given the after-hours action in the QQQ after Google's earnings. It may very well end up in the same position that the S&P is in -- right near the 50 DMA and the November highs. That would wipe out all of the late December, low volume rally.

Here's a GOOG chart which doesn't show the after-hours losses. It's been a rough January for the stock. First it had a sell-the-news reaction to the Nexus One phone, then China issues weighed on it and now it's earnings. People have been on CNBC defending it all the way down and they did so tonight as well. I remain unconvinced. I want to see it show some strength before I become an interested buyer. I don't see any significant support before the 500 level, so I see no reason to be in a rush to buy it here.

One downgrade today

This is the beginning of tonight's Worden Report (emphasis is mine):

A Freakish Situation

The market, freakishly, is in a situation markedly similar to what we had yesterday. Today we have a weak market following a very strong market. Yesterday we had a strong market following a very weak day.

Until this market shows the ability to put some kind of a trend together for just a few days, there is no point in trying to put a forecast together. The only rational way to handle it is to treat it like what it is--a waiting game.

Today's trading stats were strictly negative. All Ten Important Averages were down, as a group averaging -1.17%.  This compares to +1.33% yesterday and -1.09% the day before.

Today all 16 of the Breadth Groupings were Negative: 14 Super-Decisively and two Decisively. Yesterday all 16 were Super-Decisively Positive. The market day before that all 16 were Super-Decisively Negative. That's downright outlandish.

Can you feel his frustration? I've been sidelined the last few days (while switching brokers) but the action has even been maddening to me. I just *knew* the indices were going to break down today, especially with the dollar surging but they held support. Some chop is to be expected during earnings season -- especially the down one day, up the next day kind of chop. That's why I used to take the heavy earnings weeks off when I was swing trading. Days that gapped back & forth like the last few days used to drive me crazy when I was holding positions overnight. Based on the post-market action I think we're in for another reversal tomorrow. So Worden is right, this is just something you just have to wait out unless you're operating on a low enough time frame to take advantage of the intraday back & forth.

It seems that I'm always harping about (relatively) poor upside volume and I'm doing it again. The volume action, especially on the Nasdaq, has been poor. That's why I was really surprised to see support hold today. Until I see some higher volume up days I have to believe that we're building a top.

Well we're a little deeper into earnings season and things are looking better than they did on Tuesday. But I think it's still too early to draw any conclusions despite the new 52-week high made by the S&P 500 today. I'm also not thrilled with the upside volume after Tuesday's distribution day. Perhaps we'll get some better volume and price direction next week when earnings reports really start to pour in.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

We rallied on better volume today but I'm still not convinced that this is nothing other than a relief rally. The S&P 500 is within striking distance of its 50-day moving average and the top of its November - December trading range. How it deals with that zone should tell us whether this bounce is for real or just a good shorting opportunity.

No changes

Some of you may be interested in the new book "The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It". Here's a short description (as if the title doesn't say it all):

In March 2006, the worldrs"s richest men sipped champagne in an opulent New York hotel. They were preparing to compete in a poker tournament with shy;million-dollar stakes. At the card table that night was Peter Muller, who managed a fabulously successful hedge fund called PDT. With him was Ken Griffin, who was the tough-as-nails head of Citadel Investment Group. There, too, were Cliff Asness, the sharp-tongued, mercurial founder of the hedge fund AQR Capital Management, and Boaz Weinstein, chess "life master" and king of the credit-default swap. Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein were among the best and brightest of a new breed, the quants. Over the past twenty years, this species of math whiz had usurped the testosterone-fueled, kill-or-be-killed risk takers whors"d long been the alpha males of the worldrs"s largest casino. The quants believed that a cocktail of differential calculus, quantum physics, and advanced geometry held the key to reaping riches from the financial markets. And they helped create a digitized money-trading machine that could shift shy;billions around the globe with the click of a mouse. Few realized that night, though, that in creating this extraordinary system, men like Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein had sown the seeds for historyrs"s greatest financial disaster.

You can listen to a discussion about it on yesterday's NPR 'Fresh Air' show. There's also an excerpt of the book posted on that NPR page.

I guess a bounce has to start somewhere and somehow but the way this one is starting isn't very convincing to me. Despite the apparently good fundamental reasons for the rally (good ISM numbers) the volume was much lighter than last week's down days. That makes me think that this was simply an oversold bounce (probably short covering) and there wasn't that much real buying taking place. We'll see if any solid upside momentum develops but for now I'm expecting resistance to kick in after the market works off its oversold condition.

No changes

It's real weak out there right now. Like I said yesterday, things were set up pretty nicely for the bulls but they weren't able to capitalize on the oversold market. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the selling today but all the major indies made new lows for the month. What's worse is they did that on increasing volume. You know I love to harp on poor upside volume. The bulls cannot be happy with the volume action recently. Heck, looking back at the S&P chart upside volume has been mostly suspect since at least July. That's going to make it tricky to find areas of strong support. On the bright side though, T2108 is at 33 now. Another bad day or two and it will be sub-20 which is usually a buy signal.

Reversed the two upgrades from yesterday...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've written about resistance from the Nasdaq's 50-day moving average and it's still capping the index. With the market as oversold as it is the bulls should be able to clear that resistance. If they can't make that happen this week I'll take that as a very bad sign.

The price action on the S&P 500 is similar to the Naz although it's not as close to its 50-day moving average. It touched the bottom of the November - December trading range today and was able to bounce. The next hurdle for the bulls is to take out this week's high. BUt I can't get excited about the prospects here as long as its within that old trading range.

Two upgrades as 50-day moving averages got approached or crossed today.

Today we got a respite from the last three days of selling. As has been so often the case lately, the volume was less than the downside volume over the previous two sessions. So that's not very comforting for those who want the market to bounce. That could just be typical Monday action though although I suspect that people are also holding back a bit ahead of the State of the Union address and maybe even Friday's GDP number. One thing is for sure though, the market feels different than it has in several months. A lot of optimism for an economic recovery is already (and still) priced in to the market but there's still plenty that could go wrong. (Concern over Bernanke's reappointment shows that.) Perhaps that's just the same old wall of worry for the market to climb though.

From a technical standpoint, I want to lean against the 50-day moving averages of the indices. As long as the indices are below those averages I'm more apt to look for shorting opportunities. I'm not saying that I would be initiating shorts right now -- the market is too oversold for me to be comfortable doing that. But if we get a couple more days of relatively light volume rallies I'd look to short those.

no changes

I'm always saying that the low volume moves (usually rallies) don't matter until they do. Well we're finally seeing the unwinding of the light volume rally that took place over the holidays. Today we had the highest volume in about a month. So the technical picture is starting to get some cracks in it. The Dow broke its 50-day moving average today and is back below its November highs. The S&P is real close to following suit. It closed just above its 50-day and is in danger of giving back its December (low volume) breakout to new highs. I'd caution the bears not to get too excited though. We've seen plenty of pullbacks like this over the last several months which only turned out to be buying opportunities. The battle for control of the 50-day moving average should tell us if this is anothe buying opportunity or the start of a real top.

The Nasdaq is in a little better shape but it may be under pressure tomorrow given the after-hours action in the QQQ after Google's earnings. It may very well end up in the same position that the S&P is in -- right near the 50 DMA and the November highs. That would wipe out all of the late December, low volume rally.

Here's a GOOG chart which doesn't show the after-hours losses. It's been a rough January for the stock. First it had a sell-the-news reaction to the Nexus One phone, then China issues weighed on it and now it's earnings. People have been on CNBC defending it all the way down and they did so tonight as well. I remain unconvinced. I want to see it show some strength before I become an interested buyer. I don't see any significant support before the 500 level, so I see no reason to be in a rush to buy it here.

One downgrade today

This is the beginning of tonight's Worden Report (emphasis is mine):

A Freakish Situation

The market, freakishly, is in a situation markedly similar to what we had yesterday. Today we have a weak market following a very strong market. Yesterday we had a strong market following a very weak day.

Until this market shows the ability to put some kind of a trend together for just a few days, there is no point in trying to put a forecast together. The only rational way to handle it is to treat it like what it is--a waiting game.

Today's trading stats were strictly negative. All Ten Important Averages were down, as a group averaging -1.17%.  This compares to +1.33% yesterday and -1.09% the day before.

Today all 16 of the Breadth Groupings were Negative: 14 Super-Decisively and two Decisively. Yesterday all 16 were Super-Decisively Positive. The market day before that all 16 were Super-Decisively Negative. That's downright outlandish.

Can you feel his frustration? I've been sidelined the last few days (while switching brokers) but the action has even been maddening to me. I just *knew* the indices were going to break down today, especially with the dollar surging but they held support. Some chop is to be expected during earnings season -- especially the down one day, up the next day kind of chop. That's why I used to take the heavy earnings weeks off when I was swing trading. Days that gapped back & forth like the last few days used to drive me crazy when I was holding positions overnight. Based on the post-market action I think we're in for another reversal tomorrow. So Worden is right, this is just something you just have to wait out unless you're operating on a low enough time frame to take advantage of the intraday back & forth.

It seems that I'm always harping about (relatively) poor upside volume and I'm doing it again. The volume action, especially on the Nasdaq, has been poor. That's why I was really surprised to see support hold today. Until I see some higher volume up days I have to believe that we're building a top.

Well we're a little deeper into earnings season and things are looking better than they did on Tuesday. But I think it's still too early to draw any conclusions despite the new 52-week high made by the S&P 500 today. I'm also not thrilled with the upside volume after Tuesday's distribution day. Perhaps we'll get some better volume and price direction next week when earnings reports really start to pour in.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

We rallied on better volume today but I'm still not convinced that this is nothing other than a relief rally. The S&P 500 is within striking distance of its 50-day moving average and the top of its November - December trading range. How it deals with that zone should tell us whether this bounce is for real or just a good shorting opportunity.

No changes

Some of you may be interested in the new book "The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It". Here's a short description (as if the title doesn't say it all):

In March 2006, the worldrs"s richest men sipped champagne in an opulent New York hotel. They were preparing to compete in a poker tournament with shy;million-dollar stakes. At the card table that night was Peter Muller, who managed a fabulously successful hedge fund called PDT. With him was Ken Griffin, who was the tough-as-nails head of Citadel Investment Group. There, too, were Cliff Asness, the sharp-tongued, mercurial founder of the hedge fund AQR Capital Management, and Boaz Weinstein, chess "life master" and king of the credit-default swap. Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein were among the best and brightest of a new breed, the quants. Over the past twenty years, this species of math whiz had usurped the testosterone-fueled, kill-or-be-killed risk takers whors"d long been the alpha males of the worldrs"s largest casino. The quants believed that a cocktail of differential calculus, quantum physics, and advanced geometry held the key to reaping riches from the financial markets. And they helped create a digitized money-trading machine that could shift shy;billions around the globe with the click of a mouse. Few realized that night, though, that in creating this extraordinary system, men like Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein had sown the seeds for historyrs"s greatest financial disaster.

You can listen to a discussion about it on yesterday's NPR 'Fresh Air' show. There's also an excerpt of the book posted on that NPR page.

I guess a bounce has to start somewhere and somehow but the way this one is starting isn't very convincing to me. Despite the apparently good fundamental reasons for the rally (good ISM numbers) the volume was much lighter than last week's down days. That makes me think that this was simply an oversold bounce (probably short covering) and there wasn't that much real buying taking place. We'll see if any solid upside momentum develops but for now I'm expecting resistance to kick in after the market works off its oversold condition.

No changes

It's real weak out there right now. Like I said yesterday, things were set up pretty nicely for the bulls but they weren't able to capitalize on the oversold market. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the selling today but all the major indies made new lows for the month. What's worse is they did that on increasing volume. You know I love to harp on poor upside volume. The bulls cannot be happy with the volume action recently. Heck, looking back at the S&P chart upside volume has been mostly suspect since at least July. That's going to make it tricky to find areas of strong support. On the bright side though, T2108 is at 33 now. Another bad day or two and it will be sub-20 which is usually a buy signal.

Reversed the two upgrades from yesterday...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've written about resistance from the Nasdaq's 50-day moving average and it's still capping the index. With the market as oversold as it is the bulls should be able to clear that resistance. If they can't make that happen this week I'll take that as a very bad sign.

The price action on the S&P 500 is similar to the Naz although it's not as close to its 50-day moving average. It touched the bottom of the November - December trading range today and was able to bounce. The next hurdle for the bulls is to take out this week's high. BUt I can't get excited about the prospects here as long as its within that old trading range.

Two upgrades as 50-day moving averages got approached or crossed today.

Today we got a respite from the last three days of selling. As has been so often the case lately, the volume was less than the downside volume over the previous two sessions. So that's not very comforting for those who want the market to bounce. That could just be typical Monday action though although I suspect that people are also holding back a bit ahead of the State of the Union address and maybe even Friday's GDP number. One thing is for sure though, the market feels different than it has in several months. A lot of optimism for an economic recovery is already (and still) priced in to the market but there's still plenty that could go wrong. (Concern over Bernanke's reappointment shows that.) Perhaps that's just the same old wall of worry for the market to climb though.

From a technical standpoint, I want to lean against the 50-day moving averages of the indices. As long as the indices are below those averages I'm more apt to look for shorting opportunities. I'm not saying that I would be initiating shorts right now -- the market is too oversold for me to be comfortable doing that. But if we get a couple more days of relatively light volume rallies I'd look to short those.

no changes

I'm always saying that the low volume moves (usually rallies) don't matter until they do. Well we're finally seeing the unwinding of the light volume rally that took place over the holidays. Today we had the highest volume in about a month. So the technical picture is starting to get some cracks in it. The Dow broke its 50-day moving average today and is back below its November highs. The S&P is real close to following suit. It closed just above its 50-day and is in danger of giving back its December (low volume) breakout to new highs. I'd caution the bears not to get too excited though. We've seen plenty of pullbacks like this over the last several months which only turned out to be buying opportunities. The battle for control of the 50-day moving average should tell us if this is anothe buying opportunity or the start of a real top.

The Nasdaq is in a little better shape but it may be under pressure tomorrow given the after-hours action in the QQQ after Google's earnings. It may very well end up in the same position that the S&P is in -- right near the 50 DMA and the November highs. That would wipe out all of the late December, low volume rally.

Here's a GOOG chart which doesn't show the after-hours losses. It's been a rough January for the stock. First it had a sell-the-news reaction to the Nexus One phone, then China issues weighed on it and now it's earnings. People have been on CNBC defending it all the way down and they did so tonight as well. I remain unconvinced. I want to see it show some strength before I become an interested buyer. I don't see any significant support before the 500 level, so I see no reason to be in a rush to buy it here.

One downgrade today

This is the beginning of tonight's Worden Report (emphasis is mine):

A Freakish Situation

The market, freakishly, is in a situation markedly similar to what we had yesterday. Today we have a weak market following a very strong market. Yesterday we had a strong market following a very weak day.

Until this market shows the ability to put some kind of a trend together for just a few days, there is no point in trying to put a forecast together. The only rational way to handle it is to treat it like what it is--a waiting game.

Today's trading stats were strictly negative. All Ten Important Averages were down, as a group averaging -1.17%.  This compares to +1.33% yesterday and -1.09% the day before.

Today all 16 of the Breadth Groupings were Negative: 14 Super-Decisively and two Decisively. Yesterday all 16 were Super-Decisively Positive. The market day before that all 16 were Super-Decisively Negative. That's downright outlandish.

Can you feel his frustration? I've been sidelined the last few days (while switching brokers) but the action has even been maddening to me. I just *knew* the indices were going to break down today, especially with the dollar surging but they held support. Some chop is to be expected during earnings season -- especially the down one day, up the next day kind of chop. That's why I used to take the heavy earnings weeks off when I was swing trading. Days that gapped back & forth like the last few days used to drive me crazy when I was holding positions overnight. Based on the post-market action I think we're in for another reversal tomorrow. So Worden is right, this is just something you just have to wait out unless you're operating on a low enough time frame to take advantage of the intraday back & forth.

It seems that I'm always harping about (relatively) poor upside volume and I'm doing it again. The volume action, especially on the Nasdaq, has been poor. That's why I was really surprised to see support hold today. Until I see some higher volume up days I have to believe that we're building a top.

Well we're a little deeper into earnings season and things are looking better than they did on Tuesday. But I think it's still too early to draw any conclusions despite the new 52-week high made by the S&P 500 today. I'm also not thrilled with the upside volume after Tuesday's distribution day. Perhaps we'll get some better volume and price direction next week when earnings reports really start to pour in.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

We rallied on better volume today but I'm still not convinced that this is nothing other than a relief rally. The S&P 500 is within striking distance of its 50-day moving average and the top of its November - December trading range. How it deals with that zone should tell us whether this bounce is for real or just a good shorting opportunity.

No changes

Some of you may be interested in the new book "The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It". Here's a short description (as if the title doesn't say it all):

In March 2006, the worldrs"s richest men sipped champagne in an opulent New York hotel. They were preparing to compete in a poker tournament with shy;million-dollar stakes. At the card table that night was Peter Muller, who managed a fabulously successful hedge fund called PDT. With him was Ken Griffin, who was the tough-as-nails head of Citadel Investment Group. There, too, were Cliff Asness, the sharp-tongued, mercurial founder of the hedge fund AQR Capital Management, and Boaz Weinstein, chess "life master" and king of the credit-default swap. Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein were among the best and brightest of a new breed, the quants. Over the past twenty years, this species of math whiz had usurped the testosterone-fueled, kill-or-be-killed risk takers whors"d long been the alpha males of the worldrs"s largest casino. The quants believed that a cocktail of differential calculus, quantum physics, and advanced geometry held the key to reaping riches from the financial markets. And they helped create a digitized money-trading machine that could shift shy;billions around the globe with the click of a mouse. Few realized that night, though, that in creating this extraordinary system, men like Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein had sown the seeds for historyrs"s greatest financial disaster.

You can listen to a discussion about it on yesterday's NPR 'Fresh Air' show. There's also an excerpt of the book posted on that NPR page.

I guess a bounce has to start somewhere and somehow but the way this one is starting isn't very convincing to me. Despite the apparently good fundamental reasons for the rally (good ISM numbers) the volume was much lighter than last week's down days. That makes me think that this was simply an oversold bounce (probably short covering) and there wasn't that much real buying taking place. We'll see if any solid upside momentum develops but for now I'm expecting resistance to kick in after the market works off its oversold condition.

No changes

It's real weak out there right now. Like I said yesterday, things were set up pretty nicely for the bulls but they weren't able to capitalize on the oversold market. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the selling today but all the major indies made new lows for the month. What's worse is they did that on increasing volume. You know I love to harp on poor upside volume. The bulls cannot be happy with the volume action recently. Heck, looking back at the S&P chart upside volume has been mostly suspect since at least July. That's going to make it tricky to find areas of strong support. On the bright side though, T2108 is at 33 now. Another bad day or two and it will be sub-20 which is usually a buy signal.

Reversed the two upgrades from yesterday...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've written about resistance from the Nasdaq's 50-day moving average and it's still capping the index. With the market as oversold as it is the bulls should be able to clear that resistance. If they can't make that happen this week I'll take that as a very bad sign.

The price action on the S&P 500 is similar to the Naz although it's not as close to its 50-day moving average. It touched the bottom of the November - December trading range today and was able to bounce. The next hurdle for the bulls is to take out this week's high. BUt I can't get excited about the prospects here as long as its within that old trading range.

Two upgrades as 50-day moving averages got approached or crossed today.

Today we got a respite from the last three days of selling. As has been so often the case lately, the volume was less than the downside volume over the previous two sessions. So that's not very comforting for those who want the market to bounce. That could just be typical Monday action though although I suspect that people are also holding back a bit ahead of the State of the Union address and maybe even Friday's GDP number. One thing is for sure though, the market feels different than it has in several months. A lot of optimism for an economic recovery is already (and still) priced in to the market but there's still plenty that could go wrong. (Concern over Bernanke's reappointment shows that.) Perhaps that's just the same old wall of worry for the market to climb though.

From a technical standpoint, I want to lean against the 50-day moving averages of the indices. As long as the indices are below those averages I'm more apt to look for shorting opportunities. I'm not saying that I would be initiating shorts right now -- the market is too oversold for me to be comfortable doing that. But if we get a couple more days of relatively light volume rallies I'd look to short those.

no changes

I'm always saying that the low volume moves (usually rallies) don't matter until they do. Well we're finally seeing the unwinding of the light volume rally that took place over the holidays. Today we had the highest volume in about a month. So the technical picture is starting to get some cracks in it. The Dow broke its 50-day moving average today and is back below its November highs. The S&P is real close to following suit. It closed just above its 50-day and is in danger of giving back its December (low volume) breakout to new highs. I'd caution the bears not to get too excited though. We've seen plenty of pullbacks like this over the last several months which only turned out to be buying opportunities. The battle for control of the 50-day moving average should tell us if this is anothe buying opportunity or the start of a real top.

The Nasdaq is in a little better shape but it may be under pressure tomorrow given the after-hours action in the QQQ after Google's earnings. It may very well end up in the same position that the S&P is in -- right near the 50 DMA and the November highs. That would wipe out all of the late December, low volume rally.

Here's a GOOG chart which doesn't show the after-hours losses. It's been a rough January for the stock. First it had a sell-the-news reaction to the Nexus One phone, then China issues weighed on it and now it's earnings. People have been on CNBC defending it all the way down and they did so tonight as well. I remain unconvinced. I want to see it show some strength before I become an interested buyer. I don't see any significant support before the 500 level, so I see no reason to be in a rush to buy it here.

One downgrade today

This is the beginning of tonight's Worden Report (emphasis is mine):

A Freakish Situation

The market, freakishly, is in a situation markedly similar to what we had yesterday. Today we have a weak market following a very strong market. Yesterday we had a strong market following a very weak day.

Until this market shows the ability to put some kind of a trend together for just a few days, there is no point in trying to put a forecast together. The only rational way to handle it is to treat it like what it is--a waiting game.

Today's trading stats were strictly negative. All Ten Important Averages were down, as a group averaging -1.17%.  This compares to +1.33% yesterday and -1.09% the day before.

Today all 16 of the Breadth Groupings were Negative: 14 Super-Decisively and two Decisively. Yesterday all 16 were Super-Decisively Positive. The market day before that all 16 were Super-Decisively Negative. That's downright outlandish.

Can you feel his frustration? I've been sidelined the last few days (while switching brokers) but the action has even been maddening to me. I just *knew* the indices were going to break down today, especially with the dollar surging but they held support. Some chop is to be expected during earnings season -- especially the down one day, up the next day kind of chop. That's why I used to take the heavy earnings weeks off when I was swing trading. Days that gapped back & forth like the last few days used to drive me crazy when I was holding positions overnight. Based on the post-market action I think we're in for another reversal tomorrow. So Worden is right, this is just something you just have to wait out unless you're operating on a low enough time frame to take advantage of the intraday back & forth.

It seems that I'm always harping about (relatively) poor upside volume and I'm doing it again. The volume action, especially on the Nasdaq, has been poor. That's why I was really surprised to see support hold today. Until I see some higher volume up days I have to believe that we're building a top.

Well we're a little deeper into earnings season and things are looking better than they did on Tuesday. But I think it's still too early to draw any conclusions despite the new 52-week high made by the S&P 500 today. I'm also not thrilled with the upside volume after Tuesday's distribution day. Perhaps we'll get some better volume and price direction next week when earnings reports really start to pour in.

No changes

Well now we know for sure that the rally earlier this week was just a relief rally. The indices made new lows for the year and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. Volume surged again but it wasn't terrible and certainly not at climactic levels. I've drawn trend channels on the S&P and Nasdaq charts which show that they could easily slide down to the 200-day moving averages over the coming weeks.

Even the gold bugs couldn't hide today. It looks like gold want to head back to 1,000.

We rallied on better volume today but I'm still not convinced that this is nothing other than a relief rally. The S&P 500 is within striking distance of its 50-day moving average and the top of its November - December trading range. How it deals with that zone should tell us whether this bounce is for real or just a good shorting opportunity.

No changes

Some of you may be interested in the new book "The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It". Here's a short description (as if the title doesn't say it all):

In March 2006, the worldrs"s richest men sipped champagne in an opulent New York hotel. They were preparing to compete in a poker tournament with shy;million-dollar stakes. At the card table that night was Peter Muller, who managed a fabulously successful hedge fund called PDT. With him was Ken Griffin, who was the tough-as-nails head of Citadel Investment Group. There, too, were Cliff Asness, the sharp-tongued, mercurial founder of the hedge fund AQR Capital Management, and Boaz Weinstein, chess "life master" and king of the credit-default swap. Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein were among the best and brightest of a new breed, the quants. Over the past twenty years, this species of math whiz had usurped the testosterone-fueled, kill-or-be-killed risk takers whors"d long been the alpha males of the worldrs"s largest casino. The quants believed that a cocktail of differential calculus, quantum physics, and advanced geometry held the key to reaping riches from the financial markets. And they helped create a digitized money-trading machine that could shift shy;billions around the globe with the click of a mouse. Few realized that night, though, that in creating this extraordinary system, men like Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein had sown the seeds for historyrs"s greatest financial disaster.

You can listen to a discussion about it on yesterday's NPR 'Fresh Air' show. There's also an excerpt of the book posted on that NPR page.

I guess a bounce has to start somewhere and somehow but the way this one is starting isn't very convincing to me. Despite the apparently good fundamental reasons for the rally (good ISM numbers) the volume was much lighter than last week's down days. That makes me think that this was simply an oversold bounce (probably short covering) and there wasn't that much real buying taking place. We'll see if any solid upside momentum develops but for now I'm expecting resistance to kick in after the market works off its oversold condition.

No changes

It's real weak out there right now. Like I said yesterday, things were set up pretty nicely for the bulls but they weren't able to capitalize on the oversold market. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the selling today but all the major indies made new lows for the month. What's worse is they did that on increasing volume. You know I love to harp on poor upside volume. The bulls cannot be happy with the volume action recently. Heck, looking back at the S&P chart upside volume has been mostly suspect since at least July. That's going to make it tricky to find areas of strong support. On the bright side though, T2108 is at 33 now. Another bad day or two and it will be sub-20 which is usually a buy signal.

Reversed the two upgrades from yesterday...

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've written about resistance from the Nasdaq's 50-day moving average and it's still capping the index. With the market as oversold as it is the bulls should be able to clear that resistance. If they can't make that happen this week I'll take that as a very bad sign.

The price action on the S&P 500 is similar to the Naz although it's not as close to its 50-day moving average. It touched the bottom of the November - December trading range today and was able to bounce. The next hurdle for the bulls is to take out this week's high. BUt I can't get excited about the prospects here as long as its within that old trading range.

Two upgrades as 50-day moving averages got approached or crossed today.

Today we got a respite from the last three days of selling. As has been so often the case lately, the volume was less than the downside volume over the previous two sessions. So that's not very comforting for those who want the market to bounce. That could just be typical Monday action though although I suspect that people are also holding back a bit ahead of the State of the Union address and maybe even Friday's GDP number. One thing is for sure though, the market feels different than it has in several months. A lot of optimism for an economic recovery is already (and still) priced in to the market but there's still plenty that could go wrong. (Concern over Bernanke's reappointment shows that.) Perhaps that's just the same old wall of worry for the market to climb though.

From a technical standpoint, I want to lean against the 50-day moving averages of the indices. As long as the indices are below those averages I'm more apt to look for shorting opportunities. I'm not saying that I would be initiating shorts right now -- the market is too oversold for me to be comfortable doing that. But if we get a couple more days of relatively light volume rallies I'd look to short those.

no changes

I'm always saying that the low volume moves (usually rallies) don't matter until they do. Well we're finally seeing the unwinding of the light volume rally that took place over the holidays. Today we had the highest volume in about a month. So the technical picture is starting to get some cracks in it. The Dow broke its 50-day moving average today and is back below its November highs. The S&P is real close to following suit. It closed just above its 50-day and is in danger of giving back its December (low volume) breakout to new highs. I'd caution the bears not to get too excited though. We've seen plenty of pullbacks like this over the last several months which only turned out to be buying opportunities. The battle for control of the 50-day moving average should tell us if this is anothe buying opportunity or the start of a real top.

The Nasdaq is in a little better shape but it may be under pressure tomorrow given the after-hours action in the QQQ after Google's earnings. It may very well end up in the same position that the S&P is in -- right near the 50 DMA and the November highs. That would wipe out all of the late December, low volume rally.

Here's a GOOG chart which doesn't show the after-hours losses. It's been a rough January for the stock. First it had a sell-the-news reaction to the Nexus One phone, then China issues weighed on it and now it's earnings. People have been on CNBC defending it all the way down and they did so tonight as well. I remain unconvinced. I want to see it show some strength before I become an interested buyer. I don't see any significant support before the 500 level, so I see no reason to be in a rush to buy it here.

One downgrade today

This is the beginning of tonight's Worden Report (emphasis is mine):

A Freakish Situation

The market, freakishly, is in a situation markedly similar to what we had yesterday. Today we have a weak market following a very strong market. Yesterday we had a strong market following a very weak day.

Until this market shows the ability to put some kind of a trend together for just a few days, there is no point in trying to put a forecast together. The only rational way to handle it is to treat it like what it is--a waiting game.

Today's trading stats were strictly negative. All Ten Important Averages were down, as a group averaging -1.17%.  This compares to +1.33% yesterday and -1.09% the day before.

Today all 16 of the Breadth Groupings were Negative: 14 Super-Decisively and two Decisively. Yesterday all 16 were Super-Decisively Positive. The market day before that all 16 were Super-Decisively Negative. That's downright outlandish.

Can you feel his frustration? I've been sidelined the last few days (while switching brokers) but the action has even been maddening to me. I just *knew* the indices were going to break down today, especially with the dollar surging but they held support. Some chop is to be expected during earnings season -- especially the down one day, up the next day kind of chop. That's why I used to take the heavy earnings weeks off when I was swing trading. Days that gapped back & forth like the last few days used to drive me crazy when I was holding positions overnight. Based on the post-market action I think we're in for another reversal tomorrow. So Worden is right, this is just something you just have to wait out unless you're operating on a low enough time frame to take advantage of the intraday back & forth.

It seems that I'm always harping about (relatively) poor upside volume and I'm doing it again. The volume action, especially on the Nasdaq, has been poor. That's why I was really surprised to see support hold today. Until I see some higher volume up days I have to believe that we're building a top.

Well we're a little deeper into earnings season and things are looking better than they did on Tuesday. But I think it's still too early to draw any conclusions despite the new 52-week high made by the S&P 500 today. I'm also not thrilled with the upside volume after Tuesday's distribution day. Perhaps we'll get some better volume and price direction next week when earnings reports really start to pour in.

No changes