Trader Mike

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

The bulls can't be happy with the way the market sold off in the last hour. But, as I often have to remind myself, the market often takes a day or two to figure out where it wants to go after a Fed decision / statement. (we had the exact same reaction after the September 23rd Fed meeting and the market reversed two day later) So I wouldn't read too much into that late selloff. Also, Cisco (CSCO) lifted the indices in the after-hours session with its earnings report. At the end of the regular session I was eager to get short tomorrow. I just knew there would be tons of stocks that made shooting stars and other bearish candles today. Even better, many of them would be at or near important moving averages. But Cisco curbed my enthusiasm with a quickness. I'm also a little concerned that we won't move much tomorrow because people may wait for Friday's jobs report to make any serious comittments.

The 50-day moving average has been a key level on the S&P 500 and it could become a factor on the Nasdaq if CSCO can avoid the post-good-earnings slides that so many stocks have had this earnings season. It seems that the indices always end up at some important technical level right before the monthly payroll report so it wouldn't surprise me if the Nasdaq and S&P closed near their 50 DMAs tomorrow.

No changes

So we had another session with wild intraday swings that were opposite the dollar. Unlike other recent sessions with those type of swings, this session resulted in a stalemate. Indeed, bulls and bears could claim victory today. The bulls can rejoice that they were able to defend last week's lows. But the bears can point to the failed morning rally on the back of pretty good economic data. Given the oversold nature of the market we could have easily seen a 2 or 3% gain on the day.

My outlook is basically the same as it was yesterday. The danger of an oversold rally is a little less now that the stochastics are starting to rise. I think that if the market can't make any progress beyond today's range by Wednesday's close (post-Fed decision) it will be open season for shorting. The market would just have gone sideways and relieved the oversold condition. I will be paying close attention to the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. It was a cap on today's rally and could very well continue to be resistance.

No changes for a change

I made comment to a friend in the middle of last week that it seemed like the wheels were coming off the market. I said that because of the wild swings which were apparently tied to the currency market. Given the sharp reversals on Thursday and Friday I think at least one wheel has come off. This is a tricky juncture. I still want to be cautious about being too bearish in the short term given the oversold condition of the market. And it's not just short-term oversold, T2108 has dropped to 20.67, so it's just a hair away from its oversold level of 20. However, I'm seeing a ton of stocks that look like they still have air under them despite being oversold. The vast majority of those stocks look like they're failing at their 50-day moving averages. (Moving average breaks are why T2108 plunged from 66 last week.) Here are a couple of examples:

Most of the charts on my short candidate list look like Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS). DKS is threatening to break last weeks low and there's a decent amount of room to the next support level. These stocks are tempting to try despite their oversold nature. If the market starts to drop again I'll be looking to get in some of these. (I have a lot of retailers on the list, which makes sense given the consumer data on Friday)

Charts like TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (AMTD) are a little more rare. The bet here is for a failure of the recovery bounce to the 50-day moving average.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 show potential for similar rejections from their 50-day moving averages. But this week could be even crazier than last week due to the Fed meeting, the payroll report, ISM and several other reports. Plus there's still the potential for an oversold bounce. This is a week to stay on your toes.

A little whipsaw on the intermediate trends over the last 3 sessions as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 thrash around their 50-day moving averages.

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

The bulls can't be happy with the way the market sold off in the last hour. But, as I often have to remind myself, the market often takes a day or two to figure out where it wants to go after a Fed decision / statement. (we had the exact same reaction after the September 23rd Fed meeting and the market reversed two day later) So I wouldn't read too much into that late selloff. Also, Cisco (CSCO) lifted the indices in the after-hours session with its earnings report. At the end of the regular session I was eager to get short tomorrow. I just knew there would be tons of stocks that made shooting stars and other bearish candles today. Even better, many of them would be at or near important moving averages. But Cisco curbed my enthusiasm with a quickness. I'm also a little concerned that we won't move much tomorrow because people may wait for Friday's jobs report to make any serious comittments.

The 50-day moving average has been a key level on the S&P 500 and it could become a factor on the Nasdaq if CSCO can avoid the post-good-earnings slides that so many stocks have had this earnings season. It seems that the indices always end up at some important technical level right before the monthly payroll report so it wouldn't surprise me if the Nasdaq and S&P closed near their 50 DMAs tomorrow.

No changes

So we had another session with wild intraday swings that were opposite the dollar. Unlike other recent sessions with those type of swings, this session resulted in a stalemate. Indeed, bulls and bears could claim victory today. The bulls can rejoice that they were able to defend last week's lows. But the bears can point to the failed morning rally on the back of pretty good economic data. Given the oversold nature of the market we could have easily seen a 2 or 3% gain on the day.

My outlook is basically the same as it was yesterday. The danger of an oversold rally is a little less now that the stochastics are starting to rise. I think that if the market can't make any progress beyond today's range by Wednesday's close (post-Fed decision) it will be open season for shorting. The market would just have gone sideways and relieved the oversold condition. I will be paying close attention to the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. It was a cap on today's rally and could very well continue to be resistance.

No changes for a change

I made comment to a friend in the middle of last week that it seemed like the wheels were coming off the market. I said that because of the wild swings which were apparently tied to the currency market. Given the sharp reversals on Thursday and Friday I think at least one wheel has come off. This is a tricky juncture. I still want to be cautious about being too bearish in the short term given the oversold condition of the market. And it's not just short-term oversold, T2108 has dropped to 20.67, so it's just a hair away from its oversold level of 20. However, I'm seeing a ton of stocks that look like they still have air under them despite being oversold. The vast majority of those stocks look like they're failing at their 50-day moving averages. (Moving average breaks are why T2108 plunged from 66 last week.) Here are a couple of examples:

Most of the charts on my short candidate list look like Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS). DKS is threatening to break last weeks low and there's a decent amount of room to the next support level. These stocks are tempting to try despite their oversold nature. If the market starts to drop again I'll be looking to get in some of these. (I have a lot of retailers on the list, which makes sense given the consumer data on Friday)

Charts like TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (AMTD) are a little more rare. The bet here is for a failure of the recovery bounce to the 50-day moving average.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 show potential for similar rejections from their 50-day moving averages. But this week could be even crazier than last week due to the Fed meeting, the payroll report, ISM and several other reports. Plus there's still the potential for an oversold bounce. This is a week to stay on your toes.

A little whipsaw on the intermediate trends over the last 3 sessions as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 thrash around their 50-day moving averages.

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

The bulls can't be happy with the way the market sold off in the last hour. But, as I often have to remind myself, the market often takes a day or two to figure out where it wants to go after a Fed decision / statement. (we had the exact same reaction after the September 23rd Fed meeting and the market reversed two day later) So I wouldn't read too much into that late selloff. Also, Cisco (CSCO) lifted the indices in the after-hours session with its earnings report. At the end of the regular session I was eager to get short tomorrow. I just knew there would be tons of stocks that made shooting stars and other bearish candles today. Even better, many of them would be at or near important moving averages. But Cisco curbed my enthusiasm with a quickness. I'm also a little concerned that we won't move much tomorrow because people may wait for Friday's jobs report to make any serious comittments.

The 50-day moving average has been a key level on the S&P 500 and it could become a factor on the Nasdaq if CSCO can avoid the post-good-earnings slides that so many stocks have had this earnings season. It seems that the indices always end up at some important technical level right before the monthly payroll report so it wouldn't surprise me if the Nasdaq and S&P closed near their 50 DMAs tomorrow.

No changes

So we had another session with wild intraday swings that were opposite the dollar. Unlike other recent sessions with those type of swings, this session resulted in a stalemate. Indeed, bulls and bears could claim victory today. The bulls can rejoice that they were able to defend last week's lows. But the bears can point to the failed morning rally on the back of pretty good economic data. Given the oversold nature of the market we could have easily seen a 2 or 3% gain on the day.

My outlook is basically the same as it was yesterday. The danger of an oversold rally is a little less now that the stochastics are starting to rise. I think that if the market can't make any progress beyond today's range by Wednesday's close (post-Fed decision) it will be open season for shorting. The market would just have gone sideways and relieved the oversold condition. I will be paying close attention to the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. It was a cap on today's rally and could very well continue to be resistance.

No changes for a change

I made comment to a friend in the middle of last week that it seemed like the wheels were coming off the market. I said that because of the wild swings which were apparently tied to the currency market. Given the sharp reversals on Thursday and Friday I think at least one wheel has come off. This is a tricky juncture. I still want to be cautious about being too bearish in the short term given the oversold condition of the market. And it's not just short-term oversold, T2108 has dropped to 20.67, so it's just a hair away from its oversold level of 20. However, I'm seeing a ton of stocks that look like they still have air under them despite being oversold. The vast majority of those stocks look like they're failing at their 50-day moving averages. (Moving average breaks are why T2108 plunged from 66 last week.) Here are a couple of examples:

Most of the charts on my short candidate list look like Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS). DKS is threatening to break last weeks low and there's a decent amount of room to the next support level. These stocks are tempting to try despite their oversold nature. If the market starts to drop again I'll be looking to get in some of these. (I have a lot of retailers on the list, which makes sense given the consumer data on Friday)

Charts like TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (AMTD) are a little more rare. The bet here is for a failure of the recovery bounce to the 50-day moving average.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 show potential for similar rejections from their 50-day moving averages. But this week could be even crazier than last week due to the Fed meeting, the payroll report, ISM and several other reports. Plus there's still the potential for an oversold bounce. This is a week to stay on your toes.

A little whipsaw on the intermediate trends over the last 3 sessions as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 thrash around their 50-day moving averages.

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

The bulls can't be happy with the way the market sold off in the last hour. But, as I often have to remind myself, the market often takes a day or two to figure out where it wants to go after a Fed decision / statement. (we had the exact same reaction after the September 23rd Fed meeting and the market reversed two day later) So I wouldn't read too much into that late selloff. Also, Cisco (CSCO) lifted the indices in the after-hours session with its earnings report. At the end of the regular session I was eager to get short tomorrow. I just knew there would be tons of stocks that made shooting stars and other bearish candles today. Even better, many of them would be at or near important moving averages. But Cisco curbed my enthusiasm with a quickness. I'm also a little concerned that we won't move much tomorrow because people may wait for Friday's jobs report to make any serious comittments.

The 50-day moving average has been a key level on the S&P 500 and it could become a factor on the Nasdaq if CSCO can avoid the post-good-earnings slides that so many stocks have had this earnings season. It seems that the indices always end up at some important technical level right before the monthly payroll report so it wouldn't surprise me if the Nasdaq and S&P closed near their 50 DMAs tomorrow.

No changes

So we had another session with wild intraday swings that were opposite the dollar. Unlike other recent sessions with those type of swings, this session resulted in a stalemate. Indeed, bulls and bears could claim victory today. The bulls can rejoice that they were able to defend last week's lows. But the bears can point to the failed morning rally on the back of pretty good economic data. Given the oversold nature of the market we could have easily seen a 2 or 3% gain on the day.

My outlook is basically the same as it was yesterday. The danger of an oversold rally is a little less now that the stochastics are starting to rise. I think that if the market can't make any progress beyond today's range by Wednesday's close (post-Fed decision) it will be open season for shorting. The market would just have gone sideways and relieved the oversold condition. I will be paying close attention to the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. It was a cap on today's rally and could very well continue to be resistance.

No changes for a change

I made comment to a friend in the middle of last week that it seemed like the wheels were coming off the market. I said that because of the wild swings which were apparently tied to the currency market. Given the sharp reversals on Thursday and Friday I think at least one wheel has come off. This is a tricky juncture. I still want to be cautious about being too bearish in the short term given the oversold condition of the market. And it's not just short-term oversold, T2108 has dropped to 20.67, so it's just a hair away from its oversold level of 20. However, I'm seeing a ton of stocks that look like they still have air under them despite being oversold. The vast majority of those stocks look like they're failing at their 50-day moving averages. (Moving average breaks are why T2108 plunged from 66 last week.) Here are a couple of examples:

Most of the charts on my short candidate list look like Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS). DKS is threatening to break last weeks low and there's a decent amount of room to the next support level. These stocks are tempting to try despite their oversold nature. If the market starts to drop again I'll be looking to get in some of these. (I have a lot of retailers on the list, which makes sense given the consumer data on Friday)

Charts like TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (AMTD) are a little more rare. The bet here is for a failure of the recovery bounce to the 50-day moving average.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 show potential for similar rejections from their 50-day moving averages. But this week could be even crazier than last week due to the Fed meeting, the payroll report, ISM and several other reports. Plus there's still the potential for an oversold bounce. This is a week to stay on your toes.

A little whipsaw on the intermediate trends over the last 3 sessions as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 thrash around their 50-day moving averages.

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

The bulls can't be happy with the way the market sold off in the last hour. But, as I often have to remind myself, the market often takes a day or two to figure out where it wants to go after a Fed decision / statement. (we had the exact same reaction after the September 23rd Fed meeting and the market reversed two day later) So I wouldn't read too much into that late selloff. Also, Cisco (CSCO) lifted the indices in the after-hours session with its earnings report. At the end of the regular session I was eager to get short tomorrow. I just knew there would be tons of stocks that made shooting stars and other bearish candles today. Even better, many of them would be at or near important moving averages. But Cisco curbed my enthusiasm with a quickness. I'm also a little concerned that we won't move much tomorrow because people may wait for Friday's jobs report to make any serious comittments.

The 50-day moving average has been a key level on the S&P 500 and it could become a factor on the Nasdaq if CSCO can avoid the post-good-earnings slides that so many stocks have had this earnings season. It seems that the indices always end up at some important technical level right before the monthly payroll report so it wouldn't surprise me if the Nasdaq and S&P closed near their 50 DMAs tomorrow.

No changes

So we had another session with wild intraday swings that were opposite the dollar. Unlike other recent sessions with those type of swings, this session resulted in a stalemate. Indeed, bulls and bears could claim victory today. The bulls can rejoice that they were able to defend last week's lows. But the bears can point to the failed morning rally on the back of pretty good economic data. Given the oversold nature of the market we could have easily seen a 2 or 3% gain on the day.

My outlook is basically the same as it was yesterday. The danger of an oversold rally is a little less now that the stochastics are starting to rise. I think that if the market can't make any progress beyond today's range by Wednesday's close (post-Fed decision) it will be open season for shorting. The market would just have gone sideways and relieved the oversold condition. I will be paying close attention to the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. It was a cap on today's rally and could very well continue to be resistance.

No changes for a change

I made comment to a friend in the middle of last week that it seemed like the wheels were coming off the market. I said that because of the wild swings which were apparently tied to the currency market. Given the sharp reversals on Thursday and Friday I think at least one wheel has come off. This is a tricky juncture. I still want to be cautious about being too bearish in the short term given the oversold condition of the market. And it's not just short-term oversold, T2108 has dropped to 20.67, so it's just a hair away from its oversold level of 20. However, I'm seeing a ton of stocks that look like they still have air under them despite being oversold. The vast majority of those stocks look like they're failing at their 50-day moving averages. (Moving average breaks are why T2108 plunged from 66 last week.) Here are a couple of examples:

Most of the charts on my short candidate list look like Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS). DKS is threatening to break last weeks low and there's a decent amount of room to the next support level. These stocks are tempting to try despite their oversold nature. If the market starts to drop again I'll be looking to get in some of these. (I have a lot of retailers on the list, which makes sense given the consumer data on Friday)

Charts like TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (AMTD) are a little more rare. The bet here is for a failure of the recovery bounce to the 50-day moving average.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 show potential for similar rejections from their 50-day moving averages. But this week could be even crazier than last week due to the Fed meeting, the payroll report, ISM and several other reports. Plus there's still the potential for an oversold bounce. This is a week to stay on your toes.

A little whipsaw on the intermediate trends over the last 3 sessions as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 thrash around their 50-day moving averages.

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

The bulls can't be happy with the way the market sold off in the last hour. But, as I often have to remind myself, the market often takes a day or two to figure out where it wants to go after a Fed decision / statement. (we had the exact same reaction after the September 23rd Fed meeting and the market reversed two day later) So I wouldn't read too much into that late selloff. Also, Cisco (CSCO) lifted the indices in the after-hours session with its earnings report. At the end of the regular session I was eager to get short tomorrow. I just knew there would be tons of stocks that made shooting stars and other bearish candles today. Even better, many of them would be at or near important moving averages. But Cisco curbed my enthusiasm with a quickness. I'm also a little concerned that we won't move much tomorrow because people may wait for Friday's jobs report to make any serious comittments.

The 50-day moving average has been a key level on the S&P 500 and it could become a factor on the Nasdaq if CSCO can avoid the post-good-earnings slides that so many stocks have had this earnings season. It seems that the indices always end up at some important technical level right before the monthly payroll report so it wouldn't surprise me if the Nasdaq and S&P closed near their 50 DMAs tomorrow.

No changes

So we had another session with wild intraday swings that were opposite the dollar. Unlike other recent sessions with those type of swings, this session resulted in a stalemate. Indeed, bulls and bears could claim victory today. The bulls can rejoice that they were able to defend last week's lows. But the bears can point to the failed morning rally on the back of pretty good economic data. Given the oversold nature of the market we could have easily seen a 2 or 3% gain on the day.

My outlook is basically the same as it was yesterday. The danger of an oversold rally is a little less now that the stochastics are starting to rise. I think that if the market can't make any progress beyond today's range by Wednesday's close (post-Fed decision) it will be open season for shorting. The market would just have gone sideways and relieved the oversold condition. I will be paying close attention to the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. It was a cap on today's rally and could very well continue to be resistance.

No changes for a change

I made comment to a friend in the middle of last week that it seemed like the wheels were coming off the market. I said that because of the wild swings which were apparently tied to the currency market. Given the sharp reversals on Thursday and Friday I think at least one wheel has come off. This is a tricky juncture. I still want to be cautious about being too bearish in the short term given the oversold condition of the market. And it's not just short-term oversold, T2108 has dropped to 20.67, so it's just a hair away from its oversold level of 20. However, I'm seeing a ton of stocks that look like they still have air under them despite being oversold. The vast majority of those stocks look like they're failing at their 50-day moving averages. (Moving average breaks are why T2108 plunged from 66 last week.) Here are a couple of examples:

Most of the charts on my short candidate list look like Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS). DKS is threatening to break last weeks low and there's a decent amount of room to the next support level. These stocks are tempting to try despite their oversold nature. If the market starts to drop again I'll be looking to get in some of these. (I have a lot of retailers on the list, which makes sense given the consumer data on Friday)

Charts like TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (AMTD) are a little more rare. The bet here is for a failure of the recovery bounce to the 50-day moving average.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 show potential for similar rejections from their 50-day moving averages. But this week could be even crazier than last week due to the Fed meeting, the payroll report, ISM and several other reports. Plus there's still the potential for an oversold bounce. This is a week to stay on your toes.

A little whipsaw on the intermediate trends over the last 3 sessions as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 thrash around their 50-day moving averages.

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

The bulls can't be happy with the way the market sold off in the last hour. But, as I often have to remind myself, the market often takes a day or two to figure out where it wants to go after a Fed decision / statement. (we had the exact same reaction after the September 23rd Fed meeting and the market reversed two day later) So I wouldn't read too much into that late selloff. Also, Cisco (CSCO) lifted the indices in the after-hours session with its earnings report. At the end of the regular session I was eager to get short tomorrow. I just knew there would be tons of stocks that made shooting stars and other bearish candles today. Even better, many of them would be at or near important moving averages. But Cisco curbed my enthusiasm with a quickness. I'm also a little concerned that we won't move much tomorrow because people may wait for Friday's jobs report to make any serious comittments.

The 50-day moving average has been a key level on the S&P 500 and it could become a factor on the Nasdaq if CSCO can avoid the post-good-earnings slides that so many stocks have had this earnings season. It seems that the indices always end up at some important technical level right before the monthly payroll report so it wouldn't surprise me if the Nasdaq and S&P closed near their 50 DMAs tomorrow.

No changes

So we had another session with wild intraday swings that were opposite the dollar. Unlike other recent sessions with those type of swings, this session resulted in a stalemate. Indeed, bulls and bears could claim victory today. The bulls can rejoice that they were able to defend last week's lows. But the bears can point to the failed morning rally on the back of pretty good economic data. Given the oversold nature of the market we could have easily seen a 2 or 3% gain on the day.

My outlook is basically the same as it was yesterday. The danger of an oversold rally is a little less now that the stochastics are starting to rise. I think that if the market can't make any progress beyond today's range by Wednesday's close (post-Fed decision) it will be open season for shorting. The market would just have gone sideways and relieved the oversold condition. I will be paying close attention to the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. It was a cap on today's rally and could very well continue to be resistance.

No changes for a change

I made comment to a friend in the middle of last week that it seemed like the wheels were coming off the market. I said that because of the wild swings which were apparently tied to the currency market. Given the sharp reversals on Thursday and Friday I think at least one wheel has come off. This is a tricky juncture. I still want to be cautious about being too bearish in the short term given the oversold condition of the market. And it's not just short-term oversold, T2108 has dropped to 20.67, so it's just a hair away from its oversold level of 20. However, I'm seeing a ton of stocks that look like they still have air under them despite being oversold. The vast majority of those stocks look like they're failing at their 50-day moving averages. (Moving average breaks are why T2108 plunged from 66 last week.) Here are a couple of examples:

Most of the charts on my short candidate list look like Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS). DKS is threatening to break last weeks low and there's a decent amount of room to the next support level. These stocks are tempting to try despite their oversold nature. If the market starts to drop again I'll be looking to get in some of these. (I have a lot of retailers on the list, which makes sense given the consumer data on Friday)

Charts like TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (AMTD) are a little more rare. The bet here is for a failure of the recovery bounce to the 50-day moving average.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 show potential for similar rejections from their 50-day moving averages. But this week could be even crazier than last week due to the Fed meeting, the payroll report, ISM and several other reports. Plus there's still the potential for an oversold bounce. This is a week to stay on your toes.

A little whipsaw on the intermediate trends over the last 3 sessions as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 thrash around their 50-day moving averages.

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

The bulls can't be happy with the way the market sold off in the last hour. But, as I often have to remind myself, the market often takes a day or two to figure out where it wants to go after a Fed decision / statement. (we had the exact same reaction after the September 23rd Fed meeting and the market reversed two day later) So I wouldn't read too much into that late selloff. Also, Cisco (CSCO) lifted the indices in the after-hours session with its earnings report. At the end of the regular session I was eager to get short tomorrow. I just knew there would be tons of stocks that made shooting stars and other bearish candles today. Even better, many of them would be at or near important moving averages. But Cisco curbed my enthusiasm with a quickness. I'm also a little concerned that we won't move much tomorrow because people may wait for Friday's jobs report to make any serious comittments.

The 50-day moving average has been a key level on the S&P 500 and it could become a factor on the Nasdaq if CSCO can avoid the post-good-earnings slides that so many stocks have had this earnings season. It seems that the indices always end up at some important technical level right before the monthly payroll report so it wouldn't surprise me if the Nasdaq and S&P closed near their 50 DMAs tomorrow.

No changes

So we had another session with wild intraday swings that were opposite the dollar. Unlike other recent sessions with those type of swings, this session resulted in a stalemate. Indeed, bulls and bears could claim victory today. The bulls can rejoice that they were able to defend last week's lows. But the bears can point to the failed morning rally on the back of pretty good economic data. Given the oversold nature of the market we could have easily seen a 2 or 3% gain on the day.

My outlook is basically the same as it was yesterday. The danger of an oversold rally is a little less now that the stochastics are starting to rise. I think that if the market can't make any progress beyond today's range by Wednesday's close (post-Fed decision) it will be open season for shorting. The market would just have gone sideways and relieved the oversold condition. I will be paying close attention to the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. It was a cap on today's rally and could very well continue to be resistance.

No changes for a change

I made comment to a friend in the middle of last week that it seemed like the wheels were coming off the market. I said that because of the wild swings which were apparently tied to the currency market. Given the sharp reversals on Thursday and Friday I think at least one wheel has come off. This is a tricky juncture. I still want to be cautious about being too bearish in the short term given the oversold condition of the market. And it's not just short-term oversold, T2108 has dropped to 20.67, so it's just a hair away from its oversold level of 20. However, I'm seeing a ton of stocks that look like they still have air under them despite being oversold. The vast majority of those stocks look like they're failing at their 50-day moving averages. (Moving average breaks are why T2108 plunged from 66 last week.) Here are a couple of examples:

Most of the charts on my short candidate list look like Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS). DKS is threatening to break last weeks low and there's a decent amount of room to the next support level. These stocks are tempting to try despite their oversold nature. If the market starts to drop again I'll be looking to get in some of these. (I have a lot of retailers on the list, which makes sense given the consumer data on Friday)

Charts like TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (AMTD) are a little more rare. The bet here is for a failure of the recovery bounce to the 50-day moving average.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 show potential for similar rejections from their 50-day moving averages. But this week could be even crazier than last week due to the Fed meeting, the payroll report, ISM and several other reports. Plus there's still the potential for an oversold bounce. This is a week to stay on your toes.

A little whipsaw on the intermediate trends over the last 3 sessions as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 thrash around their 50-day moving averages.

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

The bulls can't be happy with the way the market sold off in the last hour. But, as I often have to remind myself, the market often takes a day or two to figure out where it wants to go after a Fed decision / statement. (we had the exact same reaction after the September 23rd Fed meeting and the market reversed two day later) So I wouldn't read too much into that late selloff. Also, Cisco (CSCO) lifted the indices in the after-hours session with its earnings report. At the end of the regular session I was eager to get short tomorrow. I just knew there would be tons of stocks that made shooting stars and other bearish candles today. Even better, many of them would be at or near important moving averages. But Cisco curbed my enthusiasm with a quickness. I'm also a little concerned that we won't move much tomorrow because people may wait for Friday's jobs report to make any serious comittments.

The 50-day moving average has been a key level on the S&P 500 and it could become a factor on the Nasdaq if CSCO can avoid the post-good-earnings slides that so many stocks have had this earnings season. It seems that the indices always end up at some important technical level right before the monthly payroll report so it wouldn't surprise me if the Nasdaq and S&P closed near their 50 DMAs tomorrow.

No changes

So we had another session with wild intraday swings that were opposite the dollar. Unlike other recent sessions with those type of swings, this session resulted in a stalemate. Indeed, bulls and bears could claim victory today. The bulls can rejoice that they were able to defend last week's lows. But the bears can point to the failed morning rally on the back of pretty good economic data. Given the oversold nature of the market we could have easily seen a 2 or 3% gain on the day.

My outlook is basically the same as it was yesterday. The danger of an oversold rally is a little less now that the stochastics are starting to rise. I think that if the market can't make any progress beyond today's range by Wednesday's close (post-Fed decision) it will be open season for shorting. The market would just have gone sideways and relieved the oversold condition. I will be paying close attention to the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. It was a cap on today's rally and could very well continue to be resistance.

No changes for a change

I made comment to a friend in the middle of last week that it seemed like the wheels were coming off the market. I said that because of the wild swings which were apparently tied to the currency market. Given the sharp reversals on Thursday and Friday I think at least one wheel has come off. This is a tricky juncture. I still want to be cautious about being too bearish in the short term given the oversold condition of the market. And it's not just short-term oversold, T2108 has dropped to 20.67, so it's just a hair away from its oversold level of 20. However, I'm seeing a ton of stocks that look like they still have air under them despite being oversold. The vast majority of those stocks look like they're failing at their 50-day moving averages. (Moving average breaks are why T2108 plunged from 66 last week.) Here are a couple of examples:

Most of the charts on my short candidate list look like Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS). DKS is threatening to break last weeks low and there's a decent amount of room to the next support level. These stocks are tempting to try despite their oversold nature. If the market starts to drop again I'll be looking to get in some of these. (I have a lot of retailers on the list, which makes sense given the consumer data on Friday)

Charts like TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (AMTD) are a little more rare. The bet here is for a failure of the recovery bounce to the 50-day moving average.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 show potential for similar rejections from their 50-day moving averages. But this week could be even crazier than last week due to the Fed meeting, the payroll report, ISM and several other reports. Plus there's still the potential for an oversold bounce. This is a week to stay on your toes.

A little whipsaw on the intermediate trends over the last 3 sessions as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 thrash around their 50-day moving averages.

Silly me. Last night when I mentioned that today's economic reports could move the market I neglected to mention that moves in the dollar could do the same. But that almost goes without saying these days. Of late, the currency market has been the dog wagging its stock market tail. So even though I'd love to be an all-out bear after today I can't get too excited because the dollar could get weak again at any moment and re-ignite the stock buying party.

Having said that, the technicals are starting to look worrisome again. The S&P and Nasdaq are looking like Monday's rally was a false breakout and the Russell is once again under its 50-day moving average. It looks to me like the Nasdaq has formed an island top this week as well as breaking its November uptrend. Dell, which reported worse than expected earnings this evening, may weigh the Nasdaq down even more tomorrow.

The S&P 500's chart looks a little better than the Nasdaq chart. It's still within spitting distance of that nice round number of 1100. So the expiration pin is still very possible there.

The small caps are still lagging. The index touched or crossed its 50-day moving average on 6 of the previous 7 sessions. Today's gap below the 50 DMA on increasing volume really puts this latest leg up in question.

A few downgrades today

It's been a pretty quiet couple of consolidation days since Monday's push to new highs. Volume has been well below average and price has stayed within Monday's range. It feels like people are getting an early start on Thanksgiving. We do have options expiration this week though. While that could drive some more activity, it could also just keep things exactly where they are. The Nasdaq and S&P are both near nice round numbers which are perfect for pinning. Unless tomorrow's economic data (Philly Fed & Leading Indicators) is a big surprise I just don't see the market breaking out of this consolidation mode this week.

No changes

The weak dollar, strong stocks trade asserted itself again today, this time lifting many of the indices to new 52-week highs. So the bears can no longer hope for those double-top and head & shoulder patterns to pan out. Even the small cap Russell 2000 climbed back above its 50-day moving average. Volume was better than it has been on most up days of late but it was still below average. So I'm still skeptical of the volume but not enough to stand in front of the melt up that's taking place, especially into expiration and a holiday week.

Everything is up once again...

We had a little pullback today on mixed volume. The S&P 500's volume remained about the same as the past couple of sessions but volume increased on the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Dow. So I still have the same concerns about a lack of upside volume relative to the down days. While there wasn't a lot of technical damage done today we've still got to be alert for topping patterns -- a double top on the S&P 500 and a head & shoulders on the Nasdaq.

As usual, the small caps performed the worst. The Russell fell twice as much as the other indices on a percentage basis. This is the index most in danger of taking out its November low.

One downgrade

The market has gained some ground since my last post but there were no technical developments to change my opinion on things. I'm still skeptical of this attempt at new highs. The indices are now firmly overbought and there's been poor volume behind this rally. At best (for now) the Nasdaq and S&P are range-bound. I'm sticking with that theory until it's proven incorrect. Given that and the overbought stochastic readings I'm looking for a move back toward the bottom of the range. I'm also finding a lot of short candidates among stocks which are stalling near their 50-day moving averages. (That's one of the things William O'Neil looks for in short candidates. Those stocks that peaked in the spring are really lining up with his criteria.)

The small caps have a long way to go to catch up with the larger cap indices. This chart really looks like a failing rally...

No changes

So it's broken record time for me. You know I have to complain about the lack of volume over these last few sessions. Sure, the price action has been great but I just can't shake the feeling that I shouldn't trust this rally due to the relatively light volume. The Dow was able to break to a new 52-week high today and the S&P 500 isn't far away from that same feat. I'm a little skeptical that the S&P will be able to hold new highs but stranger things have happened.

The table's looking much better...

I don't want to read too much into today's rally because it was on lackluster volume and because tomorrow's employment report could override any technicals. The S&P and Nasdaq climbed back above their 50-day moving averages today. That's a good sign for the bulls but we've still got to watch out for those indices forming head & shoulders patterns. Hopefully things will be clearer by midday tomorrow.

I rarely even look at the Dow so I was surprised to see how relatively well it's held up.

Several upgrades today

The bulls can't be happy with the way the market sold off in the last hour. But, as I often have to remind myself, the market often takes a day or two to figure out where it wants to go after a Fed decision / statement. (we had the exact same reaction after the September 23rd Fed meeting and the market reversed two day later) So I wouldn't read too much into that late selloff. Also, Cisco (CSCO) lifted the indices in the after-hours session with its earnings report. At the end of the regular session I was eager to get short tomorrow. I just knew there would be tons of stocks that made shooting stars and other bearish candles today. Even better, many of them would be at or near important moving averages. But Cisco curbed my enthusiasm with a quickness. I'm also a little concerned that we won't move much tomorrow because people may wait for Friday's jobs report to make any serious comittments.

The 50-day moving average has been a key level on the S&P 500 and it could become a factor on the Nasdaq if CSCO can avoid the post-good-earnings slides that so many stocks have had this earnings season. It seems that the indices always end up at some important technical level right before the monthly payroll report so it wouldn't surprise me if the Nasdaq and S&P closed near their 50 DMAs tomorrow.

No changes

So we had another session with wild intraday swings that were opposite the dollar. Unlike other recent sessions with those type of swings, this session resulted in a stalemate. Indeed, bulls and bears could claim victory today. The bulls can rejoice that they were able to defend last week's lows. But the bears can point to the failed morning rally on the back of pretty good economic data. Given the oversold nature of the market we could have easily seen a 2 or 3% gain on the day.

My outlook is basically the same as it was yesterday. The danger of an oversold rally is a little less now that the stochastics are starting to rise. I think that if the market can't make any progress beyond today's range by Wednesday's close (post-Fed decision) it will be open season for shorting. The market would just have gone sideways and relieved the oversold condition. I will be paying close attention to the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. It was a cap on today's rally and could very well continue to be resistance.

No changes for a change

I made comment to a friend in the middle of last week that it seemed like the wheels were coming off the market. I said that because of the wild swings which were apparently tied to the currency market. Given the sharp reversals on Thursday and Friday I think at least one wheel has come off. This is a tricky juncture. I still want to be cautious about being too bearish in the short term given the oversold condition of the market. And it's not just short-term oversold, T2108 has dropped to 20.67, so it's just a hair away from its oversold level of 20. However, I'm seeing a ton of stocks that look like they still have air under them despite being oversold. The vast majority of those stocks look like they're failing at their 50-day moving averages. (Moving average breaks are why T2108 plunged from 66 last week.) Here are a couple of examples:

Most of the charts on my short candidate list look like Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS). DKS is threatening to break last weeks low and there's a decent amount of room to the next support level. These stocks are tempting to try despite their oversold nature. If the market starts to drop again I'll be looking to get in some of these. (I have a lot of retailers on the list, which makes sense given the consumer data on Friday)

Charts like TD Ameritrade Holding Corp (AMTD) are a little more rare. The bet here is for a failure of the recovery bounce to the 50-day moving average.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 show potential for similar rejections from their 50-day moving averages. But this week could be even crazier than last week due to the Fed meeting, the payroll report, ISM and several other reports. Plus there's still the potential for an oversold bounce. This is a week to stay on your toes.

A little whipsaw on the intermediate trends over the last 3 sessions as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 thrash around their 50-day moving averages.